AI investments vs. end-user consumer spending

[Kingran]

@btresist

And how stupid do you consider the arguments made against the valuations of pets.com and etoys.com?

You are only arguing my point, except that you are wearing blinders that is preventing you from seeing my point. Specifically on pets com I have posted how VC’s view

How a VC views tech investments

Lot of us focus too much on the failure, but fail to see the success. The failures are part of the success. The pets dot com, webvan dot com, are the price you pay, and pointing them and declaring the technology is a failure shows a lack of tech investing. [image]

If you are going to compare the valuation, then be honest and do a proper valuation. I have posted some thoughts on $MSFT here… compare this with $CSCO valuation.

$MSFT some random thoughts

The below are from morningstar. It is impressive that $MSFT is able to triple their revenue, while slightly improving their gross margin, and almost doubling their net profit margin, note this is margin and not actual $$$, which is 6x. These are pretty impressive numbers. Now coming to valuation, it is pretty much in the same range as in the last 10 years. If you look at these numbers, nothing here shows the company valuation is driven by AI boom. One can question, how long $MSFT can sustain…

$CSCO which was the poster child of excess of dot com era, at peak had 200 PE, compare that to $NVDA, then you will know how far we have to go to the bubble phase.

I have posted this, but will say it again, Greenspan talked about irrational exuberance in 1996 and markets peaked after 3 years, and Nasdaq gained 200%. So anyone can say bubble and feel very smart… but that is not how you make money in the market.