AI Capacity build is different from adoption. The adoption comes from enterprises. When tariff brought biggest disruption and uncertainty, companies, CEO, and board are going to prioritize dealing with that. Not going to focus on AI adoption.
Also, lot of these numbers of pretty questionable.
All, I am seeing the GPU sales, GPU consumption at HPC’s are growing at pretty good rate and constrained by capacity.
Rest is noise. I should stay away from these discussions, because we are arguing against feelings and not hard data…
That shows you are picking examples that meet the narrative and not real meaningful data. Cisco is the poster child of dot com era, because they were building the backbone of “internet”, their sales, revenue, customer growth and valuation all mirrored that era…
Palantir is a very unique case, but it is not the poster child of AI boom. That should be NVDA. You can pick and choose random, inconsequential examples or discuss with relevant metrics.
This though process is incorrect but repeated erroneously ad nauseum.
CSCO’s problem was not overvaluation and excess.
It did not execute well. It should have innovated, created and dominated the $Trillion cloud industry. Same story with Yahoo.
I think we know that eventually AI markets will mature and growth will slow. Then we will see which have learned to make AI profitable. The rest will fall by the wayside.
For now a hand full are profitable as major players invest to build capacity. It sure looks like OpenAI plans to be an industry leader. Nvidia and a few others have a strong lead, and innovative leadership. It’s hard to imagine them falling behind. Others like Google must participate to protect their current leadership.
It will be interesting to see who the leaders will be 10 years from now. Many will survive; some will prosper. Investors should be working figuring out. Yes, some will fail. The trick is figure out which will be the winners.
U.S. manufacturing spending has contracted for seven straight months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. And construction spending has been flat to down, due to high interest rates and rising costs. Cushman & Wakefield said in a report this month that total project costs for construction in the fourth quarter will be up 4.6% from a year earlier because of tariffs on building materials.AI spending is boosting the economy, but many businesses are in survival mode
The economy for working people was doing well under Biden. But then the clowns came into power…
Construction is also not doing well, being saved only by the massive AI spending.
Meanwhile, a long-time bell-weather of American prosperity has declined for the first time in a decade.
As Charlie Munger advised, “If you can’t react with equanimity to a 50% stock market drop 2 or 3 times a century, you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and deserve the mediocre returns you’re going to get.”
He had no money in the markets in 1932. He was not alluding to 1932.
By its low point in 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen approximately 90% from its 1929 peak, closing at 41.22. This represented an 89% loss from its 1929 high.
Yes, overall tax receipts fell significantly from 1929 to 1932 due to the collapse of the economy, although specific types of taxes and government responses complicated the picture. While economic activity and personal income dropped, causing a steep decline in revenue, the federal government responded by dramatically increasing tax rates in 1932 to try and close a massive deficit. This happened while local governments were also raising property taxes to compensate for their own declining revenues.
Factors that caused tax receipts to fall
Plummeting economic activity: The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression caused worldwide GDP to fall by an estimated 15% between 1929 and 1932.
Reduced personal income: As a result of the economic downturn, personal incomes, profits, and prices dropped sharply, which directly lowered the amount of tax revenue collected.
Business failures: A massive number of banks failed, and businesses closed, further shrinking the tax base.
Government responses that impacted tax receipts
Federal tax increases: Despite the revenue drop, the federal government enacted a massive tax increase in 1932, raising the top marginal income tax rate to 63%. This was an attempt to balance the budget, but the economic collapse was too severe for it to prevent a huge deficit.
Local tax increases: Local and state governments also jacked up taxes, particularly property taxes, because their revenues were also in decline. This was a heavy burden as incomes were falling and property assessments remained high.
Overall impact
Despite the large rate increases implemented by both the federal and state/local governments, the overall amount of tax revenue collected at all levels of government still fell from 1929 to 1932, due to the severity of the economic collapse.
The combination of a collapsing economy and significantly higher tax rates made the 1932 period particularly bleak for government finances and the public alike.
When did the Federal Government begin collecting the gas tax?
Jun 29, 2023 — In this case, during the nearly 5 months delay, the economy continued to deteriorate. The worldwide Depression was too…
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Federal Highway Administration (.gov)
Economics and Poverty - Great Depression Project
Until 1933 when federal assistance began, it was up to local authorities to assist unemployed residents. Counties and cities did w…
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UW Homepage
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Tax Increases and the Great Depression | Cato at Liberty Blog
Nov 15, 2022 — State and local governments jacked up taxes during the 1930s. Property taxes hit hard in the early 1930s because asses…
