AI lending bubble

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/business/dealbook/data-centers-ai.html

What Wall Street Sees in the Data Center Boom

Data center capacity has become a barometer for both the health of the tech market and the risk of an A.I. bubble.

By Ian Frisch, The New York Times, Sept. 20, 2025

Trillions of dollars are flowing into the data centers needed to power artificial intelligence, and Wall Street is paying close attention….

U.S. data center demand, driven largely by A.I., could triple by 2030, according to McKinsey, which would require data centers to make nearly $7 trillion in investment to keep up….

The spending frenzy comes with a big default risk. According to Moody’s, structured finance has become a popular way to pay for new data center projects, with more than $9 billion of issuance in the commercial mortgage-backed security and asset-backed security markets during the first four months of 2025….

Even if A.I. proliferates, demand for processing power may not. The Chinese technology company DeepSeek has demonstrated that A.I. models can produce reliable outputs with less computing power. As A.I. companies make their models more efficient, data center demand could drop, making it much harder to turn investments in A.I. infrastructure into profit….[end quote]

There’s more in the article about lost tax revenues, pressured power grids and water.

Here’s a really good article about the skeptical perspective.

What will happen to the big tech companies if AI doesn’t generate enough cash flow to pay off the debts?

Wendy

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The debt to equity ratios for the big dogs are quite low with the exception of Apple. Oracle is the outlier.
META 0.15
AMZN 0.15
MSFT 0.18
GOOG 0.07
TSLA 0.07
AAPL 1.25
ORCL 3.33

DB2

4 Likes

The article you linked talks about cash flow and gross margins which are the crucial issues. Intelligence by itself does not produce income. it has to be embedded in products and services that have demand that people and business are willing and able to pay for.

My Tesla investment is now based on the expectation that Tesla will monetize AI via transportation and humanoid robots. In a way AI is the new version of software which enabled Increasing Returns economics.

Tesla continues to prioritize vertical integration. While most others must rely on outside suppliers for AI hardware Tesla is working on AI5, the inference chips that will power not only EVs but also the Optimus robot.

Tesla AI5 chip

Increasing Return Economics

The Captain

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