AI starving economy of resources

This is an opinion piece so naturally it’s only one side of the story.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/opinion/ai-economy-affordability.html

The Generational Force Hollowing Out the Economy

By Jennifer M. Harris, The New York Times, June 29, 2026

We are witnessing one of the largest peacetime mobilizations of capital in modern American history. Topping $1 trillion annually by next year, the artificial intelligence buildout is expected to rival or surpass previous technological booms at their peaks — rail, electrification and the internet revolution.

Many economists believe that at a time of rising inflation, a weakening job market and global unrest, this boom is keeping the U.S. economy afloat. “A recession tied to the balloon of A.I.,” is how PJ Vogt, a popular podcaster, describes the perspective. Look more closely, however, and the picture changes. A.I. is vacuuming up so much of our land, talent, semiconductor chips, building materials — and, above all, so much of our money, that it is beginning to crowd out the rest of the economy… [end quote]

The rest of the article is examples of how housing, manufacturing capital expenditures, venture capital and funding for mid-size businesses and non-AI start-ups are being crowded out by AI investments.

The author mentions how heavy investment in railroads and the internet didn’t pay off for a long time. Even though these advances changed society eventually, many investors went bust and recessions followed.

The author makes several policy suggestions which, of course, won’t happen.

Meanwhile, put the book " Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises," by Robert Z. Aliber (Author), Charles P. Kindleberger (Author), Robert N. McCauley on your summer reading list.

This is the Eighth Edition 2023. The first edition was written in 1978, before the dot-com and internet bubbles (2000 bust and recession) and Great Financial Crisis (2008 bust and recession).

Wendy

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From my perspective, did building the Titanic hollow out the economy? Really, the Titanic did not have that big an impact, but it sank. Accidents happen, and we do not know when they strike.

The suggestions seem common-sensical, but you’re right, they probably won’t happen.

Not sure if you saw it, Anthropic’s Chad Jones had an interesting take on whether all this investment is worth it.

“What is the price of this amazing change in living standards? Recall that we would face a flow probability of existential risk of 1% per year for 40 years, so the probability we survive this A.I. explosion is exp(−.01 × 40) ≈ 0.67. In other words, with log utility it is optimal to take a 1 in 3 chance of ending human existence in exchange for a 2/3 chance of dramatically raising living standards by a factor of 55.”

https://www.ft.com/content/bb04671c-4377-4231-96ef-0f8e57ed5d1b

Were railroads and the internet ever considered an existential threat to human existence? This bubble may be different.

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Traveling 10 mph was very scary in its day.

Considering all the drunk driving deaths, it is worse than AI. So far, per year.

That’s one of the most ridiculous statements I’ve ever read.

" raising living standards by a factor of 55"
What does that even mean? In a country where 40% of the population is already obese? Does he expect to raise living standards in countries where people are starving? Does he expect to provide a minimum income to all? I doubt it.

It’s pure nonsense.

On the other hand, if he really believes that there is " a 1 in 3 chance of ending human existence" then the whole project should be deep-sixed. That’s a very high probability and multiplied by infinity (the actual downside of death for all) — NOPE.

Wendy

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Cool-Aid Factor 55! Tarty Lemon

Only tax hikes will get us where we need to go. Old-fashioned 1950s economics. Still, the best way forward by incentivizing huge economic growth and economies of scale.

Think like an oligarch, then it makes sense.

Yeah, super crazy. Many of the dudes driving the AI revolution think it could destroy humanity. The point isn’t whether it will, or not. The point is that many who think it will are pushing against regulation and at the same time are making it rain for limitless capex spending to see what AI can do…

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