If there aren’t 50 Hollywood writers working on scripts based on this article, I don’t know what….
A very good peek behind the curtain - the hair-raising possibilities - and the possible solutions - to AI, (past), present, and largely future. Warning: not for the faint of heart: Gift article:
There is always someone. And it is easy to believe there are nihilists who would love to see a true apocalypse.
Someone will just do an updated version of “War Games”.
Do you want to play a game?
I foresee something more in line with “Eagle Eye”
Ai drones anyone? New Russian Drones “Reshape” Ukraine War; AI-Powered Autonomy Outmaneuvers Kiev's Defenses: OPED
I would like to change the subject to a topic that is less frightening.
Like having RFK Jr becoming your primary care physician.
Here’s another way AI is a danger.
As Reuters points out, it’s the institution’s clearest warning yet that we could be on the precipice of an AI disaster.
“The risk of a sharp market correction has increased,” said the Bank of England’s financial policy committee during a Wednesday meeting, as quoted by Reuters, warning that “equity market valuations appear stretched, particularly for technology companies focused on artificial intelligence.”
“Should expectations around the impact of AI become less optimistic,” markets could be left “particularly exposed,” the bank cautioned.
Concerns over an AI bubble bursting have grown lately, with analysts recently finding that it’s 17 times the size of the dotcom-era bubble and four times bigger than the 2008 financial crisis.
Analysts — and even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman himself — have acknowledged that AI companies are struggling to make enough money to cover their exorbitant expenses, concerns that drove a major tech selloff earlier this year.
And whether they’ll ever be able to produce enough revenue is a looming question. A startling report by researchers at MIT spooked investors in August, finding that only a measly five percent of AI pilot programs help businesses succeed at “rapid revenue acceleration,” with the vast majority falling flat.
Yet according to recent estimates, generative AI now accounts for roughly 40 percent of the United States’ gross domestic product. In other words, if the AI spending boom falls apart, it could take down the entire economy with it.
Yet according to recent estimates, generative AI now accounts for roughly 40 percent of the United States’ gross domestic product. In other words, if the AI spending boom falls apart, it could take down the entire economy with it.
Is there a place where a layperson can reasonably go and look up this kind of thing? And not rely on a news story about what a bank or banker says about it?
Of all the money that’s spent in this county on booze, food, medical care, pharmaceuticals, bathing suits, law suits, milk, dog food, haircuts, cleaning fluid, shampoo, road asphalt, Glad trash bags, store brand American cheese slices and all other chotchkies….. 40 cents out of every buck is being spent on things directly related to AI and the companies that do that? Just a little fishy. I cannot question it but it seems I should doubt it. Or am I misunderstanding terms here?
If one accepts that the economy is a Complex System then thinking that one parameter can predict the future becomes an absurdity.
Just ignore, don’t sweat it.
The Captain
Ha, yes, that’s what I’m inclined to do. Well, I can’t outright ignore it. “I am, therefor I think.” It’s there so I have to be aware of it but its cred is meager.
19th century railroad companies gobbled up staggering sums of speculative money while almost incidentally building railroads. I grew up walking expliring crazy amazing never completed railroad lines….
AI, like 19th C railroads, attracts speculative money.
No doubt!
In the end the result is a few terribly rich and a very long tail of losers. Chart these outcomes and you get the Pareto or Power Law Distribution.
The Captain
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
My first encounter with the Pareto Distribution was in 1964 when IBM was peddling its IMPACT inventory management software although I only heard of Pareto decades later. The core of the system was to track the top 20% (or so) of inventory items statistically while using the white line in the barrel method to track the rest.
A few years later Mr. Ellis, the comptroller at Colgate-Palmolive, asked me for a traditional sales report. I suggested a report by sales instead which he didn’t buy. I suggested that if he didn’t like this report I would do the one he requested. He agreed. This report set in motion a total overhaul of Colgate’s sales process (I was no longer at Colgate) which cut the delivery time from 48 to 24 hours matching Colgate’s rival, Procter & Gamble by delivering directly from the factory in Valencia, about 100 miles from Caracas, while eliminating the Caracas warehouse.
White line in the barrel method
Paint a white line inside the barrel of nails near its bottom. When you see the white line it’s time to order a new barrel of nails.
The Japanese call this a Kan Ban. Variations include the 2 bin method where you simply check stores for empty bins - and fill them.
Great anecdote, Cap’n.
As long as you are not a newborn, you can possibly survive that.
Most of us have seen it without realizing what we are seeing, the red coloring at the end of paper rolls!
The Captain
One of the complexities of complex systems is their parameter dependence is itself complex. Some parameters are actually pretty good at predicting the future of a complex system.
Take human life, a complex system with all the bells and whistles. To predict your future in a medical emergency, paramedics check your vital parameters. No pulse, no future. I enjoy posts about parameters such as diet and exercise. We don’t just predict but we alter our futures by tuning parameters with lifestyle choices. Lot’s of uncertainty, though, and at best we’re skewing the odds. Then there’s things like the motion of the planets, parameters I believe are irrelevant to human life, but some disagree. It’s complexity all the way down.
A much older movie, based on a book: The Forbin Project. That one is very scary. Good movie.
If we contain AI, it’s probably fine. If we give it control of weapons and/or defense networks, that’s probably our doom.
On the bright side, it lead to a subplot of Downton Abby.
LOL, and one of my favorites.
