AI targets white collars, excess elites?

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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I feel sorry for young college graduates. They are suffering the burdens of high college costs (many with debt), high cost of housing, uncertainty in hiring by employers and now AI.

Unemployment among young college graduates outpaces overall US joblessness rate

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER, Associated Press, Updated 12:02 PM PDT, June 26, 2025

…
Higher unemployment for younger graduates has also renewed concerns about the value of a college degree. More workers than ever have a four-year degree, which makes it less of a distinguishing factor in job applications. Murat Tasci, an economist at JPMorgan, calculates that 45% of workers have a four-year degree, up from 26% in 1992…

Job gains in professions with more college grads, such as information technology, legal services, and accounting have languished in the past 12 months…

For college graduates 22 to 27 years old, the unemployment rate was 5.8% in March — the highest, excluding the pandemic, since 2012, and far above the nationwide rate… [end quote]

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-white-collar-job-loss-b9856259?mod=hp_lead_pos2

CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs

Ford chief predicts AI will replace ‘literally half of all white-collar workers’

By Chip Cutter and Haley Zimmerman, The Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2025

  • Several CEOs predict AI will significantly cut white-collar jobs, marking a shift from previous reluctance to acknowledge potential job losses.

  • Ford’s CEO anticipates AI replacing half of white-collar workers, while JPMorgan Chase expects a 10% operations head count reduction via AI.

  • Some, like OpenAI’s COO, believe fears are overblown, while others highlight potential for new roles, despite inevitable job displacement. [end quote]

The historian, Peter Turchin, coined the phrase “excess elites” in his excellent book, “Secular Cycles.” This book quantifies over a thousand years of economic and social boom and bust cycles.

As the population grows and wealth becomes concentrated, there’s also an “overproduction” of elites (e.g., more educated people, children of wealthy families) competing for a relatively fixed number of elite positions. This leads to increased intra-elite competition, disunity, and the formation of “counter-elites,” who are losers with a feeling of entitlement and resentment. Wealth concentration in a few leaves the many “immiserated.” Over and over, in many countries, this combination of large populations with declining resources led by resentful counter-elites has resulted in the greatest Macroeconomic Trend shift of all - revolution.

In fact, Peter Turchin wrote another book, “Ages of Discord,” published in 2016, which used his “cliodynamic” analysis to predict a crisis in 2020 when several economic and social trends hit problems at the same time. He didn’t predict Covid but the huge demonstrations in reaction to the killing of George Floyd probably qualify.

Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City, a 33-year-old democratic socialist, turned out many young voters who usually don’t vote in primaries. Excess elites in action?

Politics is banned on METAR and the OBBBA is still in the kitchen (minestrone soup) but it’s likely that Medicaid will be slashed. Combine the 78.6 million Americans on Medicaid with college graduates who are losing jobs due to AI…there might be a Macroeconomic trend change in a crisis mode.
Wendy

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I have been a part of three young men trying to get jobs recently after graduating college a year ago.

One was working with me, he has a bio medical engineering degree. I could have gotten him work at MIT. He waited it out and then get a manufacturing job. He is doing extremely well but the process took a year.

Two is a son of a friend in a diner I frequent. He hated the job search process, it is a lot of pressure. In fact all three of them hate the process. He has a financial planner job starting in September. He is changing his outlook and getting ready to work.

Three works in our shipping department weekends. He has not found a job yet. His degree is business. He does not want logistics. I have suggested it a few times to him. He approached me last week for advice. Again nixed logistics. He does not know what it is. He wants to follow up on the suggestion to do meditation.

There is an added layer of being able to spit out tons of resumes. There are actions with no value. All three of these guys won’t make the phone calls to get a job and feedback from HR and job managers.

want to add

As a 62 year old I am parental just by opening my mouth. I was tough on the first one with the bio medical engineering degree. He was angry with me. It got him off his behind. But he was a go getter sort of. He wants to be lazy and not get a masters or become a doctor. He will end up with a ton of work that is pretty much equal. He is balancing more but the system loves him. He is from Asia. Wont say where. He is on a visa.

Two I really gave a kick in the behind. He was angry but that was his culture anyway in the diner. He is better friends with me now. My kick was an eyeopener for him. He is an immigrants son so there is a limited visibility into the process.

Three is not an immigrant. I did not kick his tail. He is making the least progress and feels very lost. His father is kicking him which is just making him more lost.

All three will figure it out. Time is what you make of it.

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Before “AI” was the buzzword, it was “the information superhighway”. How many times do you call the customer service department of a company, and get someone with an Indian accent? We really don’t need to even import people on H1B visas anymore. All the engineering can be offshored.

Steve

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Yeah, yeah, yeah. I graduated into the OPEC embargo and rampant inflation, not to mention the draft for Vietnam. People who graduated a half decade later graduated into a double recession in Reagan’s first term. Those who graduated in the mid 2000’s saw an economic collapse the likes of which we haven’t had since the Great Depression.

There have been some who have graduated into the perfect conditions: employment growing, paychecks rising faster than inflation, plenty of housing, and cheap beer. But that’s more the exception than the rule.

As Gilda said, “It’s always something!”

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We had far less visibility into the process.

These guys have layers of stuff to deal with in the process but can see the process with some studying of it.

Phone calls to employers and HR are key. Getting grounded in the process with those who will work with the graduate.

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AI may stand for “Actually, Indians” as executives cut labor costs.

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If only there was a way to fix that. Taxation, maybe?

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I am using AI for some processes particularly in marketing with great success.

The print business I am in as a side line usually does not produce much income. But with AI the income is rising. Most of my fellow artists do not see the avenues to make that happen.

There are layers of information and productions needed to make things work today. People assign themselves to their job only.

How many of your coworkers said I do not have time to study the markets? Their loss.

You can not change the human need to settle for less. You certainly can not force people to be proactive. AI demands proactivity. It is a paradox.

side note, I thought I needed my friend who is a top C++ programmer for a plugin and coding job. He is probably on vacation with family in from the UAE. Turns out after 3 days of study I can do the job myself. AI has been that responsive as I ask questions. Huge gain for me.

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