AI - Those Not Named NVDA- The In-Cahoots DDEEs

You don’t hear that phrase much anymore: In Cahoots. And without taking time to look it up I don’t remember if it should be connected with one of those little hyphen thingys or not. I was never very good at English language studies; remembering all to well that time the Dean of the English Dept telling me I just couldn’t make up sentence structures as I went along. He was right I suppose - but all that dangling participles and stuff remained - and remains to this very day - on the elusive and slippery side of things for me. So - I pretty much ignore sentence structure. Anyway - after actually taking the time to look it up; here is what In-Cahoots actually means:

What does the expression in cahoots mean?

In an alliance or partnership

“Cahoot is used almost exclusively in the phrase “in cahoots,” which means “in an alliance or partnership.” In most contexts, it describes the conspiring activity of people up to no good.”

Ok…well, where did it come from?

OK…well…where did the term in cahoots come from?

The Oxford English Dictionary says cahoots came to English from the French by way of the Scots. It turns up in Scots English in the 16th century as “cahute,” French for a cabin or small hut.

All of which makes me sorry for looking it up in the first place because none of the companies noted below - as far as I know - are in an alliance or partnership with NVDA and unless one comes up with some interrelated, off the wall conspiracy theory I cannot say with any certainty that they are up to no good. But - since I already have gotten this far and am much to lazy to go back and restart the post I am just going to push forward and get stuck in. But they Could Be!

No - this is not about NVDA per se: Its about all those other non-shady AI related companies lurking in the AI shadows - perhaps a mixture of Aunts, Uncles, Distant Third Cousins on your Moms side, and that crazy old cigar smoking bald guy that shows up at family gatherings with a hot new girlfriend every year. Or something like that.

As usual, through sheer will power and dogged dedication, I have been really, really digging into the NVDA AI Gold Rush Effects with the almost patented Champico Industries famous 15 minute per company Deep Dive Exploratory Expeditions (DDEEs) delving into every nook and cranny - peering relentlessly under every rock and leaving no stone unturned (nor even the janitors closet) in my ongoing efforts to discover…well…stuff. Really Really!

Earlier - in another post, I happened to include the phrase - or wording to the effect, that the NVDA ER had lit the AI rocket fuse; which, upon nearly and almost entirely sober reflection created the background for this post. Or something similar to that. Anyway, here are some of the folks that showed up really well at the NVDA post report party - that is still lingering on today:

  1. SMCI

Current Price: $219.37 (Intraday)
Sitting Just Below its 52 WK High
Market Cap: $11B

A fabulous and explosive double dipping, eye popping month for SMCI first mentioned according to my memory by ROB: The company was meandering around at about $104 per share prior to its report in early May that sent the stock soaring by $37 per share over a couple of days. And then with NVDA’s report it has surged another $52 per share. Thing is up over 130% in May.

Here is Press Release from the SMCI ER:

And the After Report Headline:

Couple of Scouting Reports:

I knew it - In Cahoots!

  1. Arista Networks (ANET)

Current Price: $168.88 Intraday
Sitting a couple of points Below Its 52 Wk High
Market Cap: $50B (Give or Take)

Prior to the NVDA report ANET was wallowing down around the $140 per share level owing to is very own ER report earlier in the month where is shot itself in the foot by invoking and inviting all sort of “concerns” about Cloud Titans - or something like that.

Report Press Release:

After Report Headline:

But here comes NVDA to save the day:

Since the NVDA report ANET has soared upward by around $28 per share - a windfall of about 20% The thing to keep in mind here is that in actuality the ANET report and Guidance was just fine.

A couple of Scouting Reports:

  1. Broadcom (AVGO)

Current Price: $797 Intraday
At Its High
Market Cap: $305B Give or Take

Another incredible May Double Dipper: On May 22nd AVGO was poking along at $678 or so and then announced a Deal with Apple: It popped…and then the NVDA Booster rocket kicked-in and it re-popped or maybe just got a booster anciallary pop with the ongoing AI frenzy all things AI pop - whatever. Anyway - subsequently, and immediately AVGO is up $119 per share which comes out to a couple of days gain of +17.55%.

The company reports on 6/1

Couple of Scouting Reports:

  1. Advanced Micro Devices AMD

Current Price: $127.03
Could spit and hit 52 WK High
Market Cap: $194.5B

AMD reported FQ1on May 2nd with a somewhat ho-hum and mediocre report that seemingly didn’t inspire great confidence with fans. It then sank from around $89 the day before the report all the way down to the $81 and some change level. Then the AI hype began and the stock has soared all the way up to todays price representing a gain of about 55%. The NVDA report just added jet fuel to the fire pushing AMD another leg or two.

Here is AMD’s Report Press Release:

Here is the Post Report Headline:

A couple of Scouting Reports:

  1. Marvell Tech (MRVL)

Current Price: $65.51
Bumping Against 52 WK High
Market Cap: $43B

MRVL fits in here somewhere…but where exactly? The company reported yesterday with another mediocre level report - that is until they got to the guidance part where they mentioned that AI thing; thereafter, things got crazy and the stock soared from $46 range to todays closing price of $65.51. A gain of roughly +42%. Here is the report Press Release and the after report headlines:

After Report Headlines:

Scouting Reports:

There are many others that could be on this list but these are the ones that caught my attention.

All the Best,
BDH Investing


Thanks for the kind mention! :smiley:

He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.


performance so far in this week.


Rob - Credit where credit is due! You made an early and great call on SMCI! Well done.

Thanks to Venumadi for posting a really nice and well organized list.

How to prioritize the stack: Obviously NVDA at the top but how do the rest play out in importance and value given that practically every company known to mankind will seemingly benefit from AI and we are just coming out of the tunnel with the national anthem and kick-off soon to come: ie…early, early stage with the exception that some of these companies have been preparing for this for a very long time.

Here some of the valuations although I am not sure how relevant valuation is just now:

  1. SMCI

RV/Sales (fwd):. 1.68… PE Non-GAAP (fwd):… 20.16

  1. MKSI

RV/Sales (fwd):… 2.99…PE Non-GAAP (fwd):… 28.82

  1. AMD

RV/Sales (fwd):… 8.77…PE Non-GAAP (fwd):… 44.08

  1. ANET

RV/Sales (fwd):…8.89…PE Non-GAAP (fwd):… 29.10

  1. ASML

RV/Sales (fwd):…10.06…PE Non-GAAP (fwd):… 36.30

  1. AVGO

RV/Sales (fwd):… 10.31…PE Non-GAAP (fwd):… 19.68

  1. MRVL

RV/Sales (fwd):…10.87…PE Non-GAAP (fwd):… 42.83

  1. MPWR

RV/Sales (fwd):… 12.90…PE Non-GAAP (fwd):… 43.62

  1. NVDA

RV/Sales (fwd):… 22.38…PE Non-GAAP (fwd):…50.26.

All the Best,
BDH Investing


I’m spending some time today reading both old and recent SMCI earnings transcripts and earnings presentations (slide decks).

Outside of the “normal” sandbagging, the most interesting thing so far is their clearly stated growth goals. Keeping in mind their 2023 fiscal year revenue target (their year ends in just a couple months, June 2023) of $6.6-6.8B… they have been shifting emphasis from their $10B revenue target (timing not stated, but I suspect it may be close to 2024FY guidance) to a $20B revenue target for the “mid- to long-range”.

There is also a claim that they have been working closely with NVDA to deliver optimized products for both throughput and total cost of ownership (largely driven by energy efficiency). Sounds good, of course, but it’s not a technical discussion.

Bottom line… and this will sound audacious… I’m thinking SMCI stock has a good chance of doubling again within the next 12 months, based on continued strong growth in revenues and profits combined with PE expansion. We’ve seen the recent doubling was driven by PE expansion from 10 to 20… and I think 20 is still too low given that growth.

Look at 50% growth in EPS (that’s about what I anticipate… but I don’t think they’ll provide guidance that high… so far, they’re guiding 20%)… and a PE expansion of at least 50% to 30, perhaps higher. For those math-inclined people, that’s more than a double…

Note: They have a major facilities expansion coming online later this year and that will help enable ongoing growth.

The above no doubt sounds overly optimistic to some and perhaps I’m way off base. But that’s my thinking right now and I haven’t (yet) seen anybody trying to fit me in a straight jacket. :slight_smile:

He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.



Thanks a lot for that. I had a question, and that is just for my own understanding.

This company has been around for a very, very long time…and the price went up by 400% from 2007 till Jan 2022

And from Jan 2022 to May 2023, it went up another 380%!!!

So, do you think they are onto something which has totally turned their outlook?

I am not worried about the 20 to 30% swings down and up…Thanks to 2021 and 2022 - I think I am very very used to that now.

So, i am happy to live with volatility. What I am trying to understand is whether something is a fad versus a star in the making…

And the reason I ask you is…I know you mentioned this multiple times…You got into AMZN after it had already ran up a lot…and yet, you made a killing on it…

So, I am just trying to learn from that perspective…

Greatly appreciate your input



  1. I wonder if I actually found the answer for one of my questions - This has done a remarkable turn in its gross TTM revenue from 2022 to 2023…So, Yeah, I get it now as to why it ran…

I guess the crux of my question is - It is providing a key component (server) which are likely to be critical for the AI enabling companies. But as this is a hardware based stock, does that exclude it from becoming a true compounder or worthy as a long term buy and hold?

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… when companies do well, the stocks eventually tag along and do well. So, I look for companies that are doing well… preferably with market valuation that “looks good”. To that end, I’m most comfortable with Peter Lynch’s PEG approach… it’s done well for me over the decades. From time to time, the market will run way ahead of that principle and folks can make money that way as well… as long as they get out when the bubble starts to burst.

(Note: UPST is a different case. I didn’t understand that their business model would stop working during times that we’ve had and I stubbornly held on… and lost an amazing amount of money. Hopefully, I’ll be less stubborn in the future.)

So what is SMCI doing that is successful? Pretty much “just” routine stuff. They make a relatively low margin product that is in demand and they make claims that their products are better than the competition. OK… how can we know if that is so? Developing intimate product and market knowledge is difficult unless you’re in the industry, so that’s out. What else? Easy… you look at the results >>>>

  • Are the company results good enough to invest in it?
    Answer: Yes.

  • Will the company be able to sustain those good results?
    Answer: I don’t know… that’s why I watch the results each quarter. I think it’s unlikely that some other company is going to swoop in with alien technology and displace SMCI all at once. :wink: A decline in competitiveness will result in a decline in the company results and it’ll take a while to no longer be attractive. That’s why I’m fully prepared to take any company “out back” (as in, behind the barn)… and shoot it (as in, sell my position). It isn’t complicated.

  • Why did SMCI stock shoot up?
    Answer: Because… relative to the company’s revenue growth, financial strength and earnings… it was stupid cheap. Stupid cheap is transitory, but it isn’t once in a blue moon. The question is “Will you, as an investor, act on what you know… or hang back out of fear?” The answer to that determines one’s results.

  • Why do I think SMCI stock might gain a lot more?
    Answer: IF SMCI can sustain the growth from the last couple years into 2024… and give some hope it might keep doing it beyond that timeframe… than it’s still very attractively priced. My personal guesstimate (for entertainment purposes only, not financial advice to anyone) is that 2024FY non-GAAP EPS might hit $14. And this growth rate should be able to sustain a PE of 35 (that’s my actual thinking, not the conservative 30 I mentioned earlier). 14 times 35 equals a lot more than the current price!

  • What am I going to do?
    I expect positive 4Q results from SMCI and modest guidance “We expect to have 20% revenue gains for 2024… hopefully a good deal more” (which is a paraphrase of what management says in their earnings reviews). So… I expect to hold through… probably 2Q 2024… and start selling some. Why would I be selling? Glad you asked! Because… I think SMCI has a good future for investors… but I figure that will be the timeframe when I’ll want to be expanding my TSLA position. Nothing wrong with SMCI (I expect)… but by then, TSLA will be or should be ready for a pretty significant share price increase. So… I sell some SMCI to buy a better opportunity. (Point of reference: SMCI is 70% of my portfolio. It won’t hurt to sell some to add to the ~20% TSLA position I have.)

Why do I think all this?

Very few would really want to know if they don’t know already… :slight_smile: Please don’t ask… but it isn’t magic or superior brainpower…

He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.


WOW, thanks a lot for the wonderful reply…You know what…If I keep asking questions like this to folks like you and several other nice people around here, I might actually start learning and doing better in due course of time.

Thanks again Rob!!!