SMCI - Earnings call

Investing Strategies Abandoned Arctic Outpost #13
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I just realized what an idiot I was - I was astonished at how and why SMCI ran up to 130 just a few weeks backs after its ER report…and it is now 234 or something!!!

Finally, I read the earnings report today… After reading the ER transcript, and some recent news, and the AI momentum…and added to the fact that this is profitable company, I can see why SMCI is running away…Falls right into Champ’s “NO GUTS, NO GLORY”

I think NVDA and SMCI are running side by side - the common them being AI…And SMCI plays a very important part (again, the earnings report details this)

And if that isn’t enough…Look at this news - thanks XMF Rob

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THEY EXPCTED TO HIT 4000 RACKS by calendar end…and this was on 2nd May this year during the earnings call…

And the news from yesterday states they are already at 4000, and targeting 5000 by calendar end!!!

I have no idea how long this AI hype/ bubble/ mania is going to run…But till it runs, it is clear that NVDA and SMCI are going to keep it hitting out of the park…Blimey, looks like everyone and their mother want NVDA GPU, proper data storage and server (SMCI)…as it is clear that every companies worth their salt are going to be questioned what they have done regarding AI!!!

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MORAL OF THE STORY - I WAS RIGHT TO BE SKEPTICAL BUT AT LEAST SHOULD HAVE DONE THE HOME WORK TO SEE “WHY” IT RAN!!

And here is the other part - Unless the institutions have jumped in and are buying, I can not understand how in the world this could have run this much and still running…

In fact, CNBC actually said something about this on NVDA - stating how the institutions are the ones which have jumped and bought this…while the retailers have not participated much…

Makes me wonder if the institutional buying is what is causing this massive a rally in NVDA and SMCI, and of coursed helped generously by the shorts having to cover big time, finding themselves totally killed!!!

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Last one - Champ and others - Where is ANET playing a part in this - It has had a big run too !! and everything started with NVDA

Jensen, You are a Rock Star!

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Hi Inspired:

No doubt that AI is center stage just now with SMCI and NVDA, among others, as the headliners. For one source to measure accumulation you can go over to IBD and perform what they call a stock CHECkUP.

Just now - both NVDA and SMCI are rated A+ (Top Rating) for accumulation - which, if I recall correctly, the IBD description of that rating - is based on institutional buying. How precise and accurate is it? I dunno.

The question I keep asking myself is this: Am I being driven to buy currently by FOMO? If so, I need to control that emotion while considering that both companies appear to be deep into their current runs, respectively, and might present better entry opportunities in the future? And thats exactly why I haven’t done anything with either of them at this point - and may not ever.

I think Rob mentioned that someone, somewhere gave SMCI a price target of $400 or so and honestly that might be light. While it could keep on running and might just do that; it may be more likely that it takes a break. Who really knows?

In cases like this - where you have a strong company producing excellent guidance and it is seeming to run away from you - I think the Fool advise is to take a small bite - I seem to remember 1/3 a position as an entry - and then see what happens from there.

But you probably know all that anyway. Personally - I am undecided based on what I think I see and a confused mind says no. Whatever, you do - best of luck with it.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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Thanks Champ, that explains these parabolic moves.

I was searching for something else and found these two:

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Fascinating to watch all this …I believe this mania/ hype/ bubble will make some new millionaires and billionaires…and at some stage, there will be bag holders too…But as long as people are on quality stocks, I think they will eventually be fine…Wishing everyone the best…As Champ says No guts, no glory!!! Thankfully, I don’t have the money now to invest so one less headache to worry about but can enjoy the scenes as they unfold!!!

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Looks no short intrest for Nvidia

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AI and upst had some what considerable short intrest

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And wow, one of the strongest bears I have ever seen capitulates too…on NVDA…And buys it after its historic runs…This is the same guy who has been steadfast in stating that he is selling all through this year and a half…

Wow, I have no doubt that at some stage these stocks will trace back some…but who knows when…and who knows what prices stocks like NVDA and SMCI will reach if all the institutions and hedge funds are piling on…

The thing which is most intriguing to me is actually what the other companies are doing…and majority of the companies mention how they are investing big in AI…

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Hi Venumadi,

Are these short interest numbers the latest? Where do you get them?

thanks for sharing

I see these numbers on my brokerage, but am sure those numbers are like 15 days off

Charlie

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Saul ain’t touching them . . . yet.
He even slapped Rob’s hand for saying he was long 70% of his portfolio.
I now have a bunch and remember when putnam posted on Saul’s forum that he was up 150% with his ENPH and got his hand slapped for only having and reporting 1 stock.
I jumped in and bought ENPH and never looked back. That was the year I turned out 60% YTD and I believe Saul did 40%. 2019.

But don’t follow me folks. I am not getting sloppy, I AM sloppy.

Faithfully abandoned,
MoneySlob

PS, Saul can do no wrong as far as I’m concerned. I owe everything in one way or another to his forum.

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I copied from below :slight_smile: looks latest as per the tweets … they saying from http://factset.com/
Work station.
https://twitter.com/mayhem4markets/status/1663709092379066370?s=46&t=po0SyA5u3x1zK2CX1Yxp1g

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Well, the latest was to break $600 within a year. I decided see what such a chart could look like. Or rather, the lesser scenario of only reaching $600 one year from now.

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Who knows where the stock will end up, but it should be noted what this stock is currently up to is not a parabolic move. It’s a parabolic move on a log scale.

Here’s a somewhat futile attempt at charting it on a linear scale:

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Zoom out:

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Who knows what the stock will do, but that price target would require a share price gain of more than 27% per quarter.

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Ok - so today might be the day you’ll always remember as the day you almost invested in SMCI.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiYzZHglKD_AhUUl2oFHYiaA5EQwqsBegQICxAG&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DLzoL_L0vky8&usg=AOvVaw1N6hpE6QDtcePJvFPOGDcr
…

So if I’m checking the box correctly, the momo guys might have finally decided to take some profit off SMCI (NVDA also to but thats an entirely different sort of bridge way way too far at the moment).

So far today, SMCI is down between $12 and $13 per share just nonchalantly floating at the -5.5% level. Normally I would take that as just the normal ups and downs, the vagaries of the market; however, note the volume: down volume today is just over 3.1 million shares vs a normal daily volume of around 1.9 million shares. Note to self: Thats a lot!.

So this could be a flare - or maybe not. But from the cheap seats it sure looks like a flare such that it shouts , if not screams: Take-The-Profit-Alert-Its-Run-To Far-To Fast -and-Is-Temporarily- Running-On Fumes.

So - some folks are taking the flare seriously and bailing (at least a little) - while others; perhaps those driven insane and/or gripped in the psychosis of FOMO are staring wide eyed at the screen and about to - if not already having - pushed that button to obtain the next great stock of the moment.

Nothing wrong with any of it - its how the market works and mostly to our benefit if we be patient and make good play selections albeit with a sort of salty-dog-its-only-money gambit, to wit:

If you must then this could be a decent signal:

Buy a small position - IF it then goes up you tell yourself you are a talented and wise investor. If it goes down you add a bit to flesh out the position and tell yourself your plan worked to perfection and you are a wise and talented investor. If it keeps going down tell yourself nothing and just be patient.

But for me - I think I’ll wait a bit and see what tomorrow might bring: could re-ignite or the new buyers booster might kick-in and go right back up; or it could continue down a bit more.

I love this game. Investing in generally quite boring - but the game…the game is worth the price of admission.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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Very true…that is why I said this is fascinating to watch from the sidelines…It will be interesting to see what NVDA does from here

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Champ,
How do you see this live?

thanks
Charlie

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Inspired: You can track it here:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjJ0OH3nqD_AhXxnWoFHdgsAeAQFnoECA4QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nasdaq.com%2F&usg=AOvVaw3XOSY_rYj9QFAGY3VmSlQK

All the Best,

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Institutions drive 80% of buying. Not retail.

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