AMBA Shorts - I hate it when they're "right

Back in June 2015, I posted this on the AMBA RB board…

While I can argue with the Citron analysis, I would not have guessed in June that AMBA price would go sub $40 (after hours, today) in less than 12 months.


If anyone’s wondering about the price decline and wants to read the piece.……

In summary, anonymous Citron author says
* AMBA isn’t Uber, Tesla, or Netflix (only a niche player)
* $6-$120 share price rise with only a doubling of revenue
* 12 month price $60, 18 month price $40
* price with peer PE $30


Honestly I don’t think I would give Citron too much credit for getting this right. Yes they were right about the decline. Though I think they got lucky more then anything. Unless I am misremembering I don’t remember citron stating that Ambarella was going to take a dive because GoPro is about to perform horribly. Yes they were right about Ambarella’s direction though I question the why. I don’t think that is the part they got right. Ambarella is doing a great job running their business. I don’t know any way they could run it any better. The whole reason Ambarella fell is because GoPro is not selling their cameras as well as they thought. This caused rising inventories within GoPro. They are not buying chips to replenish inventories so Ambarella is hurt. Yes Citron got it right though I think it was pure luck. Better to be lucky then good I guess?