I’m getting concerned about AMBA. They keep drifting down with no reason, and I don’t know if something is wrong and someone knows something. It could possibly be due to doubt about the GoPro IPO, but I really don’t know. I see an upgrade to Buy from Dougherty about three weeks ago. Any ideas from others?
Saul
Anecdotally, often the downdraft is followed by an earnings miss or a poorer than expected guidance. I 'm concerned as well.
Anirban.
Anecdotally, often the downdraft is followed by an earnings miss or a poorer than expected guidance. I 'm concerned as well.
On the other hand, BOFI got beaten down terribly, and just reported what seemed to me to be incredibly good results, so who knows?
Saul
Also, Garmin recently announced entry into GoPro’s camera market, and they aren’t using Ambarella.
I’m currently down over 20% on my first position here, and was actually considering adding more just because of the big general pull back in most of our tech stocks.
I’ve been thinking the same thing with UBNT, which I’m down 25%.
I didn’t have great timing on these, but long term they should be fine.
So Saul (and others), it seems like you don’t think this is a good spot to add. I guess I don’t really understand the worry, it seems like just a few weeks ago the board was excited to add to positions like these–positions that have drifted down for seemingly no real reason… has something changed here in your thinking?
Thanks!
My portfolio has a mix of conservative companies and rule breakers, and generally speaking all the conservative ones have gone up this year while the rule breakers are down regardless of how good their results are (just look at BOFI today, not even up 2% now that the initial pop has settled down). AMBA may be a bit on the extreme side, but it’s not ridiculous. LNKD has gotten crushed, but Dave Meier (TMFHumbleServant) says he thinks “LinkedIn is the most attractive investment opportunity out there today.”
To me, this just looks like the market cycling out of rule breakers and into conservative stocks as people get spooked and decide to take profits. Long term, that probably spells opportunity, though it may be a rocky ride in the short term.
Neil
it seems like you don’t think this is a good spot to add.
ColdDay,
The only reason I’m not adding here, is that it’s already one of my huge positions at 7% or so. It’s a question of wanting to diversify and not put all my eggs in one basket. Much as I like a stock, I could be wrong and don’t want to overload. I have added to all of my top six stocks during this correction, but now I don’t want to overweight them. It’s just prudence.
I’m also puzzled that AMBA doesn’t seem to have found a floor like the others and keeps drifting down. That’s what I commented on. It may have to do with the GoPro IPO apparently being put on hold, or potential loss of sales to Russia, or GoPro having more competition, but we’ll have to wait for results. I haven’t sold any AMBA.
Saul
Nice, thanks for the response and explanation Saul, I’m getting a lot of value out of this board!