I was considering adding to Amazon holdings when I noticed that the 4th quarter earnings estimate is $1.61. From schwab.com:
For the fourth quarter 2015, analysts estimate AMZN will earn $1.61 non-GAAP per share, an increase of 258.24% over the prior year fourth quarter non-GAAP results
I believe that Amazon e-commerce will have record holiday revenue and that the EC2 (cloud) platform will continue to show robust growth. However, $1.61 is much higher than anything we have ever seen from Amazon. Correct? This makes me hesitant to add to my position as this time.
As noted on this board before, it’s hard to predict when/if Bezos will decide to show earnings. (E.G 12748, post 12767 from Saul, “although Bezos may pull that rug out from under me again at any time”).
Does the $1.61 estimate cause concern to others on this board?
Thanks,
Bob
P.S. I’m assuming is fair game to discuss Amazon on this board as Saul now has a position.
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AMZN can earn whatever they want. They made $100B in revenue in the last 12 months. EPS is just a function of how much they decide to spend or not spend on R&D and other initiatives. You can’t value the company on traditional metrics or take EPS growth to mean much because there are so many factors at play. But they are one of the fastest growing and best perorming companies out there IMO
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My purchases from Amazon.com have really ramped up over time. Just this last month I had stuff arriving all the time. So easy it is crazy. First stop for price and great product reviews. With prime I buy stuff I might not consider. Recently got a $5.99 credit to prime pantry for not using my free 2-day shipping, so now I will try that.
Last Saturday we had a dinner date with good friends and it was the wife’s birthday. We were able to find a nice gift and get it here free easily before the day - never left the house. Ended up buy some shot glasses for ourselves and I went ahead and added some small items that had been on my wish list. Maybe I shouldn’t be using shot glasses while ordering shot glasses 
I am not a stock holder yet, but I can’t figure out why I am resisting.
Well, got to go order a Dutch oven for the wife.
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