Andy, to Answer Your Question

“Do you have any companies you are holding as investments?”

Andy,

I’ve taken the liberty to launch a new thread, because trying to answer your question is going to take several posts. The short, quick answer is this. I’ve got a lot money more invested in a several hundred companies than the average retired investor does. But I also think that “investing” --as it is taught-- is a scam that benefits only Wall Street, not individual investors.

What’s the usual pitch made to the financially naive? That ‘a stock’ is a fractional, ownership share of an underlying business, which is total BS. Unless the would-be investor is a 5% shareholder (or better), the company doesn’t know that he/she even exists, nor does it care. The would-be investor’s warm, fuzzy feelings toward the company and its services or products are meaningless, as is their supposed due-diligence in grinding through 10Qs/10Ks or the tedium of listening to the dog and pony shows known as “conference calls”. What matters is one’s entry price and one’s exit price of the exchange-traded derivative, which is all that a share of stock is. It’s a derivative that has an often very tangential relationship to underlying, so much so, that exogenous factors often overrule company-specific facts.

How do companies raise money? Two ways. They sell pieces of themselves, marketed as “shares of stock”. Or they borrow money by issuing bonds. In either case, it’s the same, underlying company. Therefore, if company-specific fundamentals matter in determining the price of a company’s stock, they matter in pricing its bonds. The same sort of green eye shade skills are needed, with this diff. Bonds mature. Stocks don’t. Therefore, the value of a stock is only what it can be sold for. If “the market” is selling down a stock, that’s the mark-to-market value of that stock, though it might not be its “intrinsic value” (IV). But IV doesn’t spend too well at the grocery store or gas pump.

I normally carry 300 or so bond positions issued by companies like WMT, DELL, AMZN, AKS, LUMN, CHX, DOW, WY, GS, JNJ, PCG, SLM, RIG, V, OSH, GT, CXW, GEO, SCCO, AUY, etc. In short, if a company’s fundamentals seem decent enough, I’ll buy their debt in favor of speculating on their stocks. I also carry 80 so stock-bond hybrids (known as pfds). As for “stocks” (in your sense of the term), I’m carrying 30 or so, with a heavy emphasis on miners and commodities, plus 20 or so ETFs, especially those that are options-based.

So, yeah. I’m “in the trenches” of this investing stuff and have been for a lotta years. But I’d also say this. THERE IS NO ONE RIGHT WAY TO DO ANY OF THIS STUFF. It all depends on one’s means, needs, goals, interests, and opportunities. But I would also say this. You did a good-enough entry into ENPH (as measured by applying Quill’s rules). But then you blew the opportunity by not dumping the whole of your position at market open on Weds (and possibly getting close to $247 for what you paid $218 on 1/31) and then standing aside to see how things played out over the next couple of days.

Arindam

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Andy,

This is Part Two of an answer to your implied question of whether I own stocks in companies that I admire. The simple, quick answer is that I don’t, for two reasons. The handful of companies I do admire and that I would like to be a part of are privately-held. The best example of this is Schwab Tire Company, whom I’ve been doing business with for 30 years.

The other few companies whose stocks I’d like to own (E.g., HD, SCX) aren’t yet cheap enough for me to consider. Others, like slave-labor AAPL, whose scams I despise, I’d never want to be shareholder, no matter how cheap their stock gets. In short, were I “King of the Economy”, most businesses would disappear, because I don’t use their products nor admire their business models.

The stocks I do own are simply ‘trades’. I have no emotional commitment to them, and I’ve traded in and out of them multiple times.

Arindam

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Thanks a lot Arindam for sharing your thoughts. It is certainly very helpful to understand the way you think through your investments and trades…and one of the most important thing I am trying to learn is to remove the emotional quotient…If I had learnt that single thing in 2021-2022, I would have been in a much better shape financially.

I could see the writing on the wall for many of the stocks I bought, yet I simply was not able to sell…and what I was not able to sell at a 20% loss, I couldn’t sell at at 40% loss, and neither at 60% loss…and soon they went to 80-90% loss!

Now, had I been on a fundamentally solid companies (which Andy appears to have a very good grasp on), may be I would have been okay…but when I was not…then I simply had no business to just hold and simply hope…Like I said before, it may be bit too late for me but I certainly have learnt a lot in this past few months…and continue to learn from folks like you…and hopefully that is something which will help my in future endeavors!

Thanks again.

Charlie

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Thanks Arindam, this is where it gets confusing. According to Simon Sez I am not supposed to sell until I get two red days and I still haven’t received even one on the chart. So is there another rule that I don’t know about?

Andy

Charlie I think even having a strong grasp of fundamentals will still tank you because even companies that are strong fundamentally can have very bad years. The thing that hurts the most is knowing you are right and the company still loses 70 percent.

Andy

Thanks Arindam that is very helpful.

Andy

“Thanks, Arindam. This is where it gets confusing. According to Simon Sez, I am not supposed to sell until I get two red days, and I still haven’t received even one on the chart. So is there another rule that I don’t know about?”

Andy,

I have no idea how Quill actually makes his money, because he rarely posts his ‘in’ and ‘out’ prices, and when he does, I point out that he didn’t follow his own rules. Also, he isn’t using just a single chart template and a single set of rules, but multiple sets that he keeps tweaking, all the while lookng for yet more new ways to pull money out of markets. What I do give him credit for, and what really is a stroke of genius, is the basics of his Simon Says method, whose essence is this. “Buy confirmed breakouts. Sell confirmed break downs.”

Now come some exceptions. Major news announcements can cause huge price shocks that overwhelm a proven rule set. (E.g., don’t try to front-run Fed announcements.) Same-same with the nonsense surrounding earnings reports. The “whisper” number is well known, as is “advance guidance”. But everyone pretends that the actual numbers will be a surprise, or not. But traders --or the algos-- position themselves nonetheless, and then react swiftly when the announcement is made. Also, hugely complicating how stocks get priced around earnings reports is the fact that the stocks are being traded in the overnight market which we mere retails investors typically can’t access.

But let’s chart ENPH and make some guesses about what coulda/shoulda been done. Here’s a very basic, Price-Volume chart for ENPH, with some MAs that help to make obvious the short-term trend.

There is – nor should be-- ZERO doubt or confusion that, if 1/30 is understood as confirming that a trend-reversal seemed to happed the previous day (1/27), then the following day (1/30) becomes the day to BUY! One could try to get fancy and submit an aggressive limit or buy-stop order. But the simplest thing to do would be MOC. (Market on Open). That would have gotten our would-be investor a price around $212. (You got in at $218 and change, not bad.)

Now comes the hard part, which is where Quill’s Simple Simon system can break down. What to do if the following day doesn’t confirm that the previous day’s entry was correct? What to do if the day following that one backs off? In short, about half the time, prices do retrace, and Quill’s rule set doesn’t deal with that fact (though Stan Weinstein does, which is a post for another time). But we as investors have to have a plan in place to deal with every contingency or else see our account chopped to pieces. Thus, both ‘profit targets’ need to be set, as well as ‘cut-loss points’, IRRESPECTIVE OF WHAT SIMON MIGHT SAY.

OK, let’s assume we wrote the following rule. “Once in a trade, stick with it until the evidence says to get out.”

On 02/02, prices closed higher than the previous day, but sellers were in charge, Not a Good Sign and a warning sign that should not be ignored. Therefore, one’s expectation should be for lower prices the following day, which is exactly what happened. But note, also, two things. #1, buyers were in charge for the day, though on weak volume, and #2, prices didn’t drop below the green midline of the MA ribbon. So, we should still be worried, but not panicked. The following day is interesting. It almost qualifies as a ‘Bearish Gravestone Doji’, and volume is negative. More worry, but still not the time to panic, especially since it should be known that earning are soon to be released, and traders are just jockeying for position. On 2/7. the day of the earnings announcement (after market close), the sentiment turns hugely positive, and prices close up for the day on slightly larger than average volume. Translation: Everyone is expecting a good earnings report, which does happen.

Now, here’s where things get tricky. Even Yahoo Finance reports after-market prices, and it was obvious that the boys were bidding up ENPH like crazy, so much so, that by an hour or so ahead of the opening on 02/08, ENPH’s price had jumped hugely. Therefore, two things could be expected. #1, ENPH would open a lot higher than the previous day, and #2, GAPS GET FILLED. In other words, as I said elsewhere, on the basis of the good earnings report, the dumb money would rush into buy ENPH, and the smart money would be happy to sell to them. That’s just how markets work.

Why am I sure of that analysis? Look at how ENPH had been trading the previous two months. It was making lower lows, not higher highs. The bounce over a good earnings report was just that, a bounce in an ongoing down-trend and an opportunity to grab a windfall profit, not a time to hold tight and to hope, or worse, to argue that Mr. Market had got it wrong. Let the dust settle. Let the traders and algos move on to their next play. Then re-evaluate what ENPH’s future night hold and begin to acquire a position, or not.

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Ok Thanks Arindam for the clear and concise write up. That is much more detailed than Simon Sez and the rules that it details and something that it would take years to learn. I have a lot more reading to do.

Andy

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“That is much more detailed than Simon Sez … and something that it would take years to learn. I have a lot more reading to do.”

Andy,

You don’t need to read a thing, You just need to watch the tape and to try to understand who’s on the opposite side of your trades.

Seriously, pick a liquid stock that --nonetheless-- trades in a very orderly fashion. The pair LABU/LABD are good candidates. You need a platform that continuously updates prices. Plot a chart --no indicators-- with 1-minute price bars. Pay attention to the rhythm of how trades are happening, their advances and retreats, especially when prices stall. If you’re long, you get out on the stall. It really is that simple.

The bad thing about paper trading is the fills aren’t very real. So, pick a low-priced stock and trade just single shares. (Do it in a tax-sheltered account, so you don’t have to report your practice trades.) If you’re careful, you might make lunch money for a day’s effort. But if you’re careful, you also won’t lose more than lunch money.

What that practice trading can teach you about how to manage long-term investment is invaluable.

Seriously, log on before market open and stay on the computer all day. Then take a day off to think about what you experienced. The market herself will teach you everything you need to know, which is this, “Buy low; Sell High.”

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