Good to see your faith was rewarded.
Thank you Arindam. Next quarter will be a block buster for this company. It’s all in the fundamentals.
Well look at that turnaround. LOL must have been a lot of people trading on earnings is all I can think about. The earnings are good and the guidance was good.
"Well look at that turnaround. LOL must have been a lot of people trading on earnings is all I can think about. "
You’re right about “a lot of people”. Yesterday’s volume of 6M shares was ~ 2x avg. Today’s volume of 13M shares was 4x. Given the runup, and then fallback in the price of ENPH over the past two days, it has to be asked, “Who was doing the trading?”
I’d humbly suggest that it was the smart money selling to the dumb money. Anticipating a good earnings report, savvy traders --or, more likely the algos-- bought shares they knew they could soon dump at a markup in a classic example of “Buy the rumor; sell the news.”
Hopefully, you grabbed some of the day’s high prices and took profits on (at least) some of your position.
I would suggest it was the dumb money freaking out because they didn’t listen to the conference call or look at the earnings report. This was a really good quarter and next quarter they said they are completely booked.
No Arindam, I am completely happy with my position in Enphase. I want to own this company because of all the tailwinds behind it.
“I would suggest it was the dumb money freaking out because they didn’t listen to the conference call or look at the earnings report.”
You and I could go back and forth arguing about who the dumb money was and who the smart money was in the trading of ENPH over the past several days. But you’re now underwater on your position instead of having grabbed the 13% to 16% profit that the market offered you.
That aside, this question has to be asked. “If ENPH is such a good company, why is it underperforming peers like SEDG and TER, never mind also underperforming the ETF that tracks the sector, namely, TAN?”
Some review is in order here:
Ques: “What’s the primary purpose of the stock market?”
Ans: Capital formation.
Ques: What’s the purpose of the secondary market?
Ans: To enable them who bought in the primary market to sell their shares at a fair price.
Deep secondary markets --which does characterize the US stock markets-- make for orderly and efficient primary markets through ‘price discovery’. Therefore, it has to be assumed that if a stock is being bid up --or being sold down-- someone, somewhere, is acting on that info and that he/she generally has it right AND sooner and faster than the general public. For sure, as Graham and endless others have noted, “the market” can become a mindless, emotionally-driven mob that pushes prices too far to either extreme. But this question always has to be asked, “Why is my counter-party to this trade willing to buy/sell? What does he/she know what I don’t, but should?”
If the tape is documenting that a stock is being sold down --as is the case with ENPH-- it has to be asked what bad news has yet to come out? I’m not saying that ENPH is another Enron. But financial reports are easy to fudge, whereas T&S is hard to spoof. Time, Price, and Volume don’t lie. 10Qs and 10Ks do.
Do you have any companies you are holding as investments Arindam?
A single stock / ETF is market onto itself regardless of the stock market noise,
Simons charts DON’T LIE, people do.
If I were to own ENPH as sidebar action and per the rules, then.
Since February 25, 2022, to the present, I would have had 9 out 9 successful trades with NO losses. The best run would be from 201.45 to 312.45.
assuming 1000 shares were bought in my league for a nice 55.1005 percent profit. OR about $111,000.00 profit.
With Simon Sez charts it almost IMPOSSIBLE to fail other than losing a dollar for a minor head fake. So, you don’t need all the funnymentals or getting a hot steamin tip from the Pied Pipers. LET THE CHARTS TELL YOU A STORY. The charts presented are from what our peers are doing with their hard money. So we don’t fight the charts, just hang onto the coat tails of our fellow traders/investors. They buy, we buy per the two (2) simple rules. They Sell we sell, but at the Finish line (day after the label. Just do it as Simon Sez to do.
Simons charts don’t lie, people do.
Does not matter whether the stock is going up or going down, Simon Sez is always making a profit other than getting a head fake signal for a minor loss. (Very rare).
I invest in portfolios such as the SPDR’s collecting very nice dividend checks quarterly (all at the same time) since 2006, Ellevest.com’s matrix since 2007 and now the ARKs with Cathie Woods.
I make as substantial amount of money almost daily.
My other purchases are for side bar action such as 2.5 percent theory. I am on DAY 101 out of DAY 365.
Andy, I seriously would like you to take some days off and study the Simon Sez rules until you blue in the face. As time moves on, you will see a rhythm of buying low selling high, buying low selling high. Stir-Rinse and repeat. Ignore all the Pied Pipers and there BS. Just let these simple charts without noise tell you what to do. The bottom line, it should only take you about 15 minutes per portfolio to make an informed decision.
For fun at lunch time, I watch CNBC and hear the talking heads yapping about some stocks. I look at my chart say no way, Jose. And here I am yelling at the TV.
Andy, It took me 48 years to get where I am today as a very successful Swing Trader through trial and error, making all kinds of mistakes and losing a substantial amount of money in the process. And here Arindam with over 30 plus years of experience and I are giving you the know-how on a SILVER PLATTER as a Concierge Service would do. My first 20 years as an Investor, I plotted on graph paper, a dozen stocks via OHLC in pencil.
51 percent of an augment is to listen and the 6P’s = " Proper Preparation Prevents a urine Poor Performance. "
DO NOT BLOW IT. Simon Sez chart are all you should be using for one year before spreading out you wings. If you can study charts at night for at least an hour to two hours. I don’t’ watch TV after 8 pm and read the WSJ, IBD, and EPOCH Times for an hour and then study charts for the next day. Egg timer werks.
I realize that Quill and I do appreciate it. But when I bought Enphase I was following the Simon Sez rules, at least I thought I was. But now I am being told I was wrong? How can that be according to the chart it is still not a sell. Maybe I do not understand the rules? Could you point me to where all the rules are at so I can study them more?
Try these stocks on for evaluation.
Hmm… I’m making a half-educated guess that this price label thing refers to the signal available on https://stockcharts.com/acp/?s=ENPH (If you go to chart settings you’ll find “Price Label”.) It matches with a maximum of 9 trades since 25, 2022.
Have no idea how the algorithm that produces those labels works, but looks like a pretty good one.
There are simultaneous discussions about price labels and smiley faces, and perhaps that’s a source of confusion? Can’t say I’ve figured out “Simon Sez” but to me it doesn’t make sense to buy green bars based on “Smiley faces”, since they’re just an aid to find the high and low in the chart.
Thanks Ray but if you look at the low price of 128.67 and the next price of 217.23 according to Simon sez when I get two red bars I would have sold before the 217.23 price. This is how I understand Simon Sez and I might be wrong.
Take a 2 month chart on Barchart.com, click extended hours and realtime boxes. Set it up with candlestick open to close. and Hieken-ashi smoothed. Anything else you want on the chart is Cooks choice but the basic chart that was set up is what you follow. Now put a company stock into the graph. Wait for a smiley face on the green candlestick to be left behind one day and that tells you to sell because the stock is going to go down, wait for a smiley stock on the red candlestick to be left behind one day to tell you to buy. Once you buy you do not sell until you either get a smiley face on the Green left behind one day or you get two red candlesticks in a row. That is what I understand Simon Sez is.
Trying to use Quill’s system as he tries to explain it would drive me crazy. But its essence is clear and understandable. Base your decisions about when to get in or out on a chart template you built yourself and on rules you yourself wrote and then back-tested by charting hundreds of stocks. (Yes, hundreds).
But also, realize this. After looking at about 20 charts, you’re no longer paying attention to what you’re looking at. Therefore, break up your practice sessions into tiny, manageable chunks.
Also, remember this:
#1. Some charts really have nothing to say.
#2, Don’t torture a chart into confessing to what you what it to say. If the signals in the chart aren’t drop-dead obvious, go to the next chart.
#3. This is a tough, tough market to be trying to trade, due to the huge disconnect from fundamentals.
#4. Simple is best, and it is ‘robust’ (which is a technical term requiring a separate post.)
#5, Risk-management trumps stock selection. (Yet another post.)
Been through this before. For the record, from the horses-mouth:
And in Barcharts, the smiley or frown faces are simply the “arcs” place above a charts high and low.
All of these can and do repaint.
That’s exactly why I don’t use 'em and exactly why OmniTrader can be such a problematic charting program.
Find the following files to help you in your plight. Do not confuse yourself with Simon Sez III, Simon Sez IV, and Simon Sez II. Each one with rules are different.
“The Simple Simon Trading Method.”
“Losing value in their wonderful portfolios”
“Tyme has come today in beating the market” Tyme has come today in beating the market
HA Smoothie house rules.
Now we have to listen to what Simon Sez to do with just two (2) simple rules.
a. BUY on the First GREEN Bar after the Last RED bar. No waiting.
b. SELL on the First RED Bar after the Last GREEN bar. No waiting.
How to create HA Smoothie Template
A. - Review a chart.
B. - click on HA Smoothie
C. - form pops up, click on MANAGE TEMPLATES - then Enter.
D. - Click on the HA Smoothie
Name - HA Smoothie
1a. Description: (Optional) leave alone.
SYMBOL - Blue Tab
Daily - 2 month
2b. Bar Type
Colored OHLC Bars - green box - red box and click off button.
2c. High/Low price Markers
2d. blank box - Show Previous Price
2e. check off Extended Hours
2f. check off Realtime Cboe BZX data (equities)
DISPLAY - Blue Tab
3a. Chart Size
3b. Symbol & Study Data
check off Header’s dial.
3c. check off Show Trackball
3d. check off Show Crosshair
3f. Horizontal - black box - Short Dot (default)
3g. Vertical - black box - Short Dot (default)
SCALE - Blue Tab
4a. click off all the dials.
4b. Right Margin Free Space
2 - Bars (default)
FUTURES - Blue Tab
5a. blank boxes
5b. Contract Roll
Volume / Open Interest (default)
EVENTS - Blue Tab
check off just Dividends and Earnings
APPEARANCE - Blue Tab
7a. Tools Panel
click off show dial.
Click off Basic Grid dial
7c. Grid Color
Color - leave it alone (default)
7d. Font Size (px)
Horizontal (time) Axis - 12 (default)
Vertical (price) axis 12 (default)
8a. Add study.
Select a study… - leave alone (default)
8b. Applied Studies
Heiken-Ashi Smoothed (EMA,3, EMA,3)
click on box and window pops up - fill in the blanks
8c. Heiken - Ashi Smoothed
Smoothing1 - EMA - - - Period1 - 3
Smoothing2 - EMA - - - Period2 - 3
leave alone (default)
8e. Click on APPLY Blue box.
click on SAVE Blue box
The following is how to build the master chart.
go to stockcharts.com.
Click on Charts& Tools
enter a stock symbol in the "Stockcharts
- click on the top ICON
- click on the sprocket to the right of the name of the stock.
- go to the bottom where it says Other Settings
- check marks for the 4 boxes.
- move down to OHLC bars settings
- choose green for Up Color
- choose red for Down Color
- next down move to Bar Thickness
- choose Medium
- move down Events
- check off all boxes except for Splits
- done click Close.
next click on the next ICON down
- kruz on down until you find Light Schemes
- next find Murphy and check it off.
- next click the second ICON again to close
Next, go back to the top ICON -
- click on " Add Indicators " if not showing a long list.
- move on down until you see the Moving Average - Exponential
- click on it and change the color to Blue
- then close
- repeat with another Moving average - Exponential
- now go back to the top and edit the ema (50) to 200 periods.
Next, save the chart settings.
I chose the name Simon.
to verify that Simon has been added.
- click on the top ICON
- next click on the 5th ICON - looks like 4 boxes
- look up and see if the word “Simon” is shown under the WITHOUT SYMBOLS.
- if there click on Save Layout at the bottom.
- answer the questions.
- click on the 4 boxes to close.
The chart in the upper left-hand corner will show.
symbol name and the ema’s
Now sometimes it goes back to the default mode of the SMAs. Trying to figure it out.
Click on the top ICON and then the 5th ICON.
Click on the word “Simon” and then click the 4 boxes again.
play with the roller to move the chart around.
If no cursor, click on the ICON to the right of the SAVE at the top right-hand corner.
these are the only charts I ever use.
How to build the HA Smoothie template with Barchart when time permits. We used to call it Simon Sez IV.
Here’s how to set up the chart template. Go to ‘Settings’. Then at SYMBOL, then “Bar Type”, Pick the “Colored OHLC Bars” format you want and then turn it off. Next, go to ‘Studies’ and select ‘HA Smoothed’. Lastly, save the chart as a ‘Template’. (Free accounts are allowed five templates.)
Pretty obvious how to trade such a chart, right? and the same ‘Wait One’ rule would apply.
Well, I named my new chart HA Smoothie.
I am picking on FCX because FCX is Kates’s father’s favourite stock he always talks about. Well FCX and SCCO are copper stocks and copper is hot because of the EVs that require a lot of copper for wiring and in their motors.
Attached is the “How to create HA Smoothie Template”.
HA Smoothie is almost bulletproof. Just like Simon Sez III.
Kudos to you for that long tutorial. It helps to explain why my entries/exits differ from yours. As just one example, you use HA (EMA3, EMA3), whereas I stick with HA (MA3, MA3) and require two dots to get in/out. Those kinds of tiny differences add up.
Secondly, if your theory about the demand for copper were correct, then its short-term chart wouldn’t look like it actually does. Instead, what’s probably happening is what always happens in late stage market cycles and/or when the $US weakens, namely a move into hard assets as an inflation hedge that does show up on a chart with weekly bars (second chart) where the green line is the $US and the symbol plotted is the ETF that tracks all base metals.
Lastly, just an off-the-cuff comment. For a forum that is devoted to technical analysis and supposed eschews “fundamentals”, a lot of our discussions depend on fundamentals, macro-economics, etc. instead of just pretty pictures of ‘price’ and ‘volume’.