…when will the “everything will go up forever” hype and hysteria be broken, and replaced by “it’s the end of the world” hype and hysteria?
We are coming up on a 10% drop since 8/16.
Steve
4 Likes
<…when will the “everything will go up forever” hype and hysteria be broken, and replaced by “it’s the end of the world” hype and hysteria?>
I’m waiting patiently. That will be the day to buy.
<We are coming up on a 10% drop since 8/16.>
Oh, that’s nothing. Look at the charts. I think we’re significantly above the bottom. VIX is climbing but it’s well below the level of the market being upset (over 30), much less in panic mode (over 40).
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS
Wendy
5 Likes
Back in the 1980s I sold an old car to a coworker. For $100. He paid me $25 a month. The coworker was my supervisor.
So we have a long way to go before we reach Wendy’s Happy Days.
…when will the “everything will go up forever” hype and hysteria be broken, and replaced by “it’s the end of the world” hype and hysteria?
Winter comes every year followed by Summer. The only difference with markets is the regularity. Don’t fret, be prepared. Do like bears in the wild do, put on fat in the Summer to last them through the Winter.
So called investors do it backwards, in bull markets they buy on margin and in bear markets they go to cash. Totally “Bassackwards.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVGhman-0qI
The Captain
Winter comes every year followed by Summer.
You know that, and I know that, but it’s getting late for that “second half recovery” that talking heads in the media always natter about to keep people in the market.
Steve
that talking heads in the media always natter about to keep people in the market.
Why do you bother with “talking heads in the media?” They are paid to talk, not to make sense.
The signal to noise ratio in the media is close to nil.
Can anyone explain to me the real value of “expected?” It’s made to sound as if “expected” is some kind of fundamental law of physics pretty much like The Big Bang.
The Captain
3 Likes
Why do you bother with “talking heads in the media?” They are paid to talk, not to make sense.
I fired Comcast a dozen years ago, so no longer waste life on bubblevision. However, the local media has a “CFP” on staff. He comes on between their fawning over celebs, and the “severe weather” hysteria, to recite “JC” talking points and reassure viewers with well worn nostrums when the market goes funky.
Rod Meloni is an Emmy Award-winning Business Editor on Local 4 News and Certified Financial Planner™ Professional.
https://www.clickondetroit.com/team/MLB3YB6NNVDKBJ7CQSKOKQBU…
Steve
1 Like
Can anyone explain to me the real value of “expected?”
If you are a trader you will have positioned yourself for the economic news that is expected, such as a given inflation rate. When the report comes out with an unexpected result you have to adjust your positions. This can change the trajectory of the market and individual stocks.
DB2
Can anyone explain to me the real value of “expected?”
You have me on ignore because you only deal in excellence, sarcasm.
The actual value is not known, but the ‘real value’ is predicated broadly on the IRR of thousands of US corporations as rates rise. In other words we have a good way to go down in a slow fade.
If you are a trader you will have positioned yourself for the economic news that is expected, such as a given inflation rate.
So it’s a trader’s tool, not an investor’s tool! That being the case, safe for me to ignore.
Thanks!
The Captain
You have me on ignore…
Are you sure?
The Captain
sends his greetings
Yeah the investor’s tool is the IRR. The corporate projects and their returns.
You be watch? LOL
So it’s a trader’s tool, not an investor’s tool! That being the case, safe for me to ignore.
It’s hype. At one time, I may have thought there was information value in “better than expected”. Then, in early 2009, I saw Cramer bellowing “just watch the first quarter reports, everything will be better than expected”. Sure enough, the local and national media followed the narrative slavishly. No matter how bad a report was, it was hailed as “better than expected”. I remember the local media here going down the automaker’s reports, repeating the “better than expected” mantra with every report.
It’s hype. But, the market runs on hype and hysteria. So, I suppose it is possible to monetize hype. Thing is, the market, right now, wants to walk a tightrope, between “better than expected” leading to interest rate increases, vs “worse than expected” stoking recession fears, so, now, the mantra appears to be “as expected”.
Steve
2 Likes
If you are a trader you will have positioned yourself for the economic news that is expected, such as a given inflation rate.
—
So it’s a trader’s tool, not an investor’s tool! That being the case, safe for me to ignore.
At the same time since it can affect prices for stocks (and the market as a whole) it can present you with buying and selling points.
DB2
At the same time since it can affect prices for stocks (and the market as a whole) it can present you with buying and selling points.
I see that in the stock price chart and with more context, not just one event in time.
Early on I believed the mantra that charting was hocus-pocus but in time I learned that it is the history of Mr. Market’s moods. When I switched to Japanese candlestick charts the give and take became clearer. What I still believe is hocus-pocus are most of the ‘indicators’ or maybe I just haven’t learned their significance.
The Captain