Sorry all, I have been silent for a while. It’s not my ticker guiding duties but stuff going on a home & work. My hands have been full for the last month or so and I 'm not really finding time for equities research … but in the meantime I have managed to read a bunch of things. I will slowly be sharing articles I found interesting.
The following David Stein article talks about the stock market being in a secular bull market, with all economic indicators pointing to markets still being in the early phases of economic recovery …
I also find the Australian Morningstar’s bi-annual take on markets useful. Ian Huntley, who use to be head of research @ Morningstar Australia had made a prediction in 2012. His prediction was that we are in what he called “The Teens Bull Market” … its was a fascinating read in that when I think back about it I see how his forecasts have been pretty good, at least so far.
Peter Warnes is the new head of equities at Morningstar Australia, following Ian’s retirement. Ian’s detailed take on the world economies is interesting:
From Peters’ note, here are a few points that bear similarities with what David Stein notes:
I remain positive on the outlook for global equity
markets. I believe it is far too early in the economic
recovery phase for markets to roll over. Obviously
markets will not be in unison. Some will lead,
others follow. The U.S. market is the likely leader.
There is a considerable gap between current rates
and the long-term average. Pre-GFC equity market
peaks were achieved despite elevated bond yields
(Figures 5 and 6). So higher interest rates are not
necessarily cause for concern unless associated
with accelerating inflationary pressures.