Arista, my thoughts

Arista, my thoughts:

Earlier I said that I didn’t want to make changes to my large Arista position on an impulse. I’ve since read all my notes, reviewed most of the posts on the board, and read the conference call. Here’s the way I see it.

  1. Arista has apparently won the important patent cases with Cisco. They just have to get the IDC (or whatever the letters are) to release the ban on importing.

  2. The first quarter being forecast flat with the fourth quarter has happened the last two years too. No problem.

  3. Arista always beats their estimates.

  4. The CEO was very, very, clear that they were not seeing any competitive pressure at present.

  5. They were very clear that they see an eventual longterm growth rate at about 25%.

  6. Because they had to test new things they had some small number of deliveries delayed (because of #1 above). They absolutely didn’t lose any to competition according to the CEO (“I want to make that clear”.)

  7. They don’t have vision past two quarters so they are estimating 25% growth for the year.

  8. They absolutely didn’t see the 50% growth in 2017 in advance either.

  9. I think the stock is down because a lot of people had had a huge run-up and were looking for an excuse to sell (or got scared).

  10. As of now, I see no reason to sell a share.