The 6th post in this thread (from @wsm007) has an Aspen Aerogel slide that shows almost all the thermal barrier revenue is from GM Ultium battery vehicles, which includes all of the Honda vehicles referenced. Thermal barrier revenue is about 75% of the company’s revenue and I’d guess at least 90% is from the Ultium battery packs today.
In the Thermal Barrier business, no customer outside of GM matters today.
How long from announcement to actual battery pack production at scale? And by then, what will happen as GM winds down its Ultium battery business? In the auto business, it can easily be 3 years from “design win” to actual production, which is where Aspen Aerogels starts making money.
There may be a short term opportunity here to ride GM doing more Ultium battery vehicles in the near future. But the long term is quite uncertain in my mind. GM won’t stop Ultium battery production overnight, certainly, but we don’t know if the new battery designs will use PyroThin, or if they do, as much PyroThin as Ultium packs use. And we don’t know if other companies will choose PyroThin, and even if they do, at what volumes they’ll be selling.
We have a baseline of 180K Ultium vehicles for 2024 from the slide in post #6 from Aspen Aerogels. That’s down from their prior estimate of 225k Ultium vehicles, and down despite them showing growth for GM new launches in H2.
So, whose going to use PyroThin that isn’t today, and in what quantities, and on what timeline? That’s what an investment in ASPN boils down to for me.