Automation, deep fakes, jobs musing

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Macro economicically, automated services technologies promise a lot of positives WRT lower consumer costs, less time wasted waiting for a representative to get back to you, etc.
But also there are negatives such as Deep Fakes and disinformation, as well as automated scams - imagine “robocalls on steroids”.

NVDA, a few years ago, introduced Ray Tracing technology that they promised would make CGI indistinguishable from “real live humans on the screen”. I see some CGI that is very close to indistinguishable from real live humans, animals, etc.
Automated Voice technology is also advancing, and may be to the point where it’s indistinguishable from “real/human” voice?

Some criticisms were that to avoid "deep fakes, and scams, disinformation, etc, the “automated” system MUST maintain some aspect that allows a human to realize the system is “computer genersted” and not another human.

Over on BRK board, there is discussion about Geico closing its CA offices. Some are saying it’s a harbinger of “bad news”, others are counseling that it may be a good thing.
They suggest it’s a move to fire/layoff/RIF human workers for an automated, online system.
ASSUMING no dire business related reasons for Geico’s CA office closures, it’s a good gross-margins move on Geico’s part?

The Toyota service department where I get all my routine maintenance has instituted an automated system for scheduling service appointments.

It works GREAT! It’s a “dumb” AI, as it has much flexibility.
I can ALMOST (but not quite) talk to it like I would to a human! (I know I’m interacting with a “robot”.)
The last time, the female voice gave me several options and very amicably scheduled the one I chose. And in a professional, friendly way, managed the rest of the process. I thanked her before ending the call.

The telephone “Customer service rep” job has supported many workers in the US “service” economy.
From an employee POV, automation has taken a job or 3.

I’m sure the Toyota dealership is happy to reduce their human labor costs!

The same for my bills (utility, rent, CCs, etc.) I pay everything online, no human interaction needed OR WANTED.

My car insurance… so far, paying the premium each year still has the human touch.

All that to say: I’m personally very happy with the automation.

To come back to macro impacts of automated phone, chat, video in which a human interacts with an automated system - has CGI and automated voice reached the “indistinguishable from live human” stage?
Is the "dumb, almost but not quite AI’ intentionally ‘dumbed down’?

:alien:
ralph

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It is clear that AI and AI directed automation will be replacing an ever growing list of jobs in the very near future.

Until now, unemployment carried a stigma and the payment of unemployment insurance was from funds contributed by those still working.

I think we should start talking about the advantages to society of those who have suddenly found themselves with excess leisure time and figure out a way to pay for that time by taxing AI’s and CPU chips before the torches are lit and the pitchforks sharpened.

Jeff

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I think we should start talking about the advantages to society of those who have suddenly found themselves with excess leisure time and figure out a way to pay for that time by taxing AI’s and CPU chips before the torches are lit and the pitchforks sharpened.

Do we also tax a soda vending machine that took away a job from someone taking your order and handing you a drink?
There is probably a CPU inside that box to count your money.

Mike

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Mike,

We are on the cusp of autonomous trucks taking drives from drivers, new factories with few employees, fewer bank tellers, supermarket checkout people and, before long, I’m guessing professionals as well. The lawyer, accountant and even doctor all have jobs which, in many cases, could be better performed by AI’s which had universal access to every document ever written about a subject (up to 10 seconds ago) and the analytical skills to make objective probabilistic recommendations.

We can either wait until the social dissatisfaction and undercurrents explode (we saw a precursor of how that looks in Charlottesville a few years ago) or we can start figuring out how to accommodate the shift and continue to fund our society.

I admit to replacing a receptionist with a voicemail PBX and a shift in phone answering protocol. I felt bad about terminating her on a personal basis, but on a business basis, the action helped the technology to immediately contribute to the bottom line of my business and the shift in telephone process actually contributed to overall customer satisfaction.

We are fortunate that we are at the beginning of a slow-moving train crash and might be able to shift things to re move some of the trauma, but if we refuse to consider the consequences of our “progress” things could get ugly.

Jeff

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In high school one of the books we were assigned to read was Edward Bellamy’s Looking Backward a utopian novel inspired by the scientific and social advances of the industrial age.

The central idea is that scientific, engineering and societal advances would free humans from drudgery work, give them abundant free time and allow them to pursue higher goals.

Sadly, human nature doesn’t seem to work that way.

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It’s not going to be pretty.

Especially if the displaced figure certain things out.

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In high school … we were assigned to read … a utopian novel…

…free from drudgery, abundant free time, and higher goals.

Sadly, human nature doesn’t seem to work that way.

Utopias NEVER work the way they are supposed to.

The Captain

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Jeff -

I admit to replacing a receptionist with a voicemail PBX and a shift in phone answering protocol.

I’m SHOCKED!!!

With all of the high tech work that you claim to have done in your career, and you only axed one job?
Hard to believe that the work that you and your employees did over the years did not impact hundreds of jobs. IT has been implemented since the 50’s to enhance productivity and increase accuracy of business transactions - and now just about everything. I have to believe that some of the systems that you and your company implemented for your customers resulted in the elimination of many jobs.

My first foray into job elimination happened in 1983 when I was working for The Gillette Company and we had a room full of data entry clerks who would keypunch and verify data that would be input into applications to run the business. The sent me to school in CT to learn “SCAN” coding - how to design OCR forms and write programs to interpret OCR printing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scan-Optics

I implemented a number of high volume data entry jobs which resulted in the reduction in the department by 95%. The other 5% were instructed in how to run the Scan Optics machine. Of course, back then, the JC’s didn’t just lay a person off - they found them other jobs within the company, but eventually, the systems that me and my company were implementing resulted in many, many positions being eliminated and those job were gone forever.

'38Packard

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<I think we should start talking about the advantages to society of those who have suddenly found themselves with excess leisure time and figure out a way to pay for that time by taxing AI’s and CPU chips before the torches are lit and the pitchforks sharpened.>

You could have said the same about unemployed English weavers when the first steam looms went into operation in 1786.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_loom

How about the thousands of unemployed farm workers due to mechanical combines? How about the thousands of unemployed secretaries due to automatic phone systems and other office automation? How about the thousands of well-paid union auto plant workers who were permanently replaced by robots?

Wendy

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You could have said the same about unemployed English weavers when the first steam looms went into operation in 1786.

Very true. I think the fear this time around, when it comes to pitchforks, is how rapidly this might happen. The Industrial Revolution happened over a long period of time. Generations, actually. It was transformative, to a very high degree, but did not come quickly. PEOPLE HAD TIME TO REACT, TO RE-SKILL, in other words. The worry now is that people will not have time to react.

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The Fifth Book of the Wealth of Nations was upon the first industrial age depression/recession. There was no actual manual or predictions etc. Adam Smith could be said to have repented in the Fifth Book.

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figure out a way to pay for that time by taxing AI’s and CPU chips before the torches are lit and the pitchforks sharpened.

Ideally, everyone would have a share in the machinery and be paid for the use of the machinery. But I don’t know how one would divvy that up fairly, since we are so fatally opposed to the “something for nothing” solutions.

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Wendy: How about the thousands of well-paid union auto plant workers who were permanently replaced by robots?

See today’s EV challenge to the ICE industry, UAW, and the web of support industries around it.

We are seeing another disruption in real time.

To Jeff’s point about “sharing the wealth”, see the government response to the EV threat against the ICE industry.

The government is currently giving taxpayer dollars to the ICE group, and putting a bandaid on the ICE industry. Subsidies and tax rebates that favor the Big 3, are not long term solutions.

The UAW, Big 3, etc etc are somewhat successfully lobbying for tax rebates with strings that limit who gets how much. GM has been famously bailed out a couple times.
Ford and Chrysler, also benefitted from OPM - Taxpayer’s Money.

To paraphrase Jeff: “pre-planning might alleviate some future stress.”

Growing pains are still pains.
:alien:
ralph

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We are on the cusp of autonomous trucks taking drives from drivers, new factories with few employees, fewer bank tellers, supermarket checkout people and, before long, I’m guessing professionals as well. The lawyer, accountant and even doctor all have jobs which, in many cases, could be better performed by AI’s which had universal access to every document ever written about a subject (up to 10 seconds ago) and the analytical skills to make objective probabilistic recommendations.

Why is it any different now than it was in the past 100 years?

“fewer bank tellers”

I don’t think so. See here:
https://www.aei.org/economics/what-atms-bank-tellers-rise-ro…

If you provide people with a good education, creativity will create new jobs as automation takes away some jobs.

Go back to the ~first instance of a computer-like time saving machine, the Jacquard loom…probably 100 to 1000 times more efficient than manual method.
Did it cause massive unemployment in the textile industry?
Nope.
The freed up time was used to create the fashion industry which no one predicted.
https://fashionheritage.eu/new-weaves-the-invention-of-the-j…

Mike

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Wendy: How about the thousands of well-paid union auto plant workers who were permanently replaced by robots?

The Robots at Tesla are planning on unionizing. They are being replaced by Giga Castings!

In the latest Model Ys two giant giga castings are replacing some 172 stamped parts that used to be assembled, glued, welded, or screwed together by an army or robots.

The Captain

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