Hi folks, I’d like to introduce a new Biotech company, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc ($AXSM) to the board.
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) conditions that have limited treatment options.
Market cap: $4.87 billion
Revenue of the past 8 quarters:
24.4 → 94.6 → 46.7 → 57.8 → 71.5 → 75.0 → 87.2 → 104.8
YoY growth of the last 4 quarters:
193.5% → (20.7)% → 86.65% → 81.27%
Share holders: 16.68% for insiders and 81.09% of Shares Held by Institutions.
TTM PS ratio is currently 14.39.
The company is deeply unprofitable now and is burning a big amount of cash. GAAP TTM net income is (311.0) million, negative 91.87% of TTM revenue, while SBC TTM is 24.25% of revenue.
Currently Axsome has two products in the market and also has a strong pipeline that are close the production stage.
The two marketed products are as follows:
Auvelity: $80.4 million revenue in Q3 24, 113% YoY growth
Sunosi: $24.4 million revenue in Q3 24, 21% YoY growth
In addition to these two products, Axsome has multiple new products in the pipeline, most of which are at late stages (NDA or Phase 3) which can potentially become a huge tail wind in 2025.
The company estimated that the peak sale potentials for all these marketed and late stage products would be $16.5 billion.
Here’s a Seeking Alpha article that has some more details about the company and the products.
Luffy
29 Likes
Axsome just announced preliminary Q4 results. Both of their commercial stage drugs logged some good growth.
Auvelity’s revenue Q1 ~ Q4:
53.4 → 65 → 80.4 → 92.6 (15.17% QoQ)
Sunosi’s revenue Q1 ~ Q4:
21.6 → 22.1 → 24.4 → 25.7 (5.3% QoQ)
Total revenue would be:
75 → 87.2 → 104.8 → 118.3 (12.88% QoQ)
A couple weeks ago, Axsome reported mixed Phase 3 results for one of their new drugs (AXS-05). The drug was proved to be very effective to prevent relapse of Alzheimer’s disease conditions, though it failed to show statistically significant results for the short-term effectiveness test. The management still thinks the results are overall positive and have submitted the drug for NDA approval.
With continuous revenue growth from the existing drugs and several late stage drugs in the pipeline, I’m speculatively expecting Axsome to continue the strong revenue growth into 2025 and 2026. I’d put a close eye to further news of this company.
Luffy
21 Likes
FDA just approved Axsome’s AXS-07, which is a medicine for acute migraine (press release). The company expected the new drug to be commercially available in 4 months.
This is a good news for the company. With the projected $0.5B - $1B peak sale potentials, this new drug could be a strong growth driver in the second half of 2025. And this will be on top of the solid growth (12.88% QoQ) from their existing medicines.
As AXS-05 and AXS-12 will be submitted for NDA soon, I believe Axsome is well positioned to succeed in the next couple years.
Long 5%
Luffy
22 Likes
Sharing some quick updates on $AXSM from 24Q4 ER.
The company wrapped up 2024 with slowing yet solid revenue growth from their existing drugs. (The revenue of last 4 quarters have been 75 → 87.2 → 104.8 → 118.8. ) And the company expects to commercially launch their third drug in May 2025, which will be a huge revenue tailwind into the second half of 2025.
What’s more exciting about this company is its amazing pipeline. There will be 1 NDA submission in 25Q1, 2 NDA submissions in 25H2 and 3 phase 3 trial study readouts! These are the most short-term catalysts I could find from a biotech company in the current market.
In addition, the company just published a PR yesterday announcing that they were on track on submit NDA for AXS-05 in 25Q3. AXS-05 was granted Breakthrough Therapy designation, so it will have Priority Review at FDA. It could potentially be the next big catalyst in 2026 if it succeeds.
ER Links:
Long (My initial position has grown into 7% due to outperformance)
Luffy
10 Likes
