AXSM - Another biotech company

[monkeydluffy]

Hi folks, I’d like to introduce a new Biotech company, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc ($AXSM) to the board.

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) conditions that have limited treatment options.

Market cap: $4.87 billion
Revenue of the past 8 quarters:
24.4 → 94.6 → 46.7 → 57.8 → 71.5 → 75.0 → 87.2 → 104.8
YoY growth of the last 4 quarters:
193.5% → (20.7)% → 86.65% → 81.27%
Share holders: 16.68% for insiders and 81.09% of Shares Held by Institutions.
TTM PS ratio is currently 14.39.

The company is deeply unprofitable now and is burning a big amount of cash. GAAP TTM net income is (311.0) million, negative 91.87% of TTM revenue, while SBC TTM is 24.25% of revenue.

Currently Axsome has two products in the market and also has a strong pipeline that are close the production stage.

The two marketed products are as follows:
Auvelity: $80.4 million revenue in Q3 24, 113% YoY growth
Sunosi: $24.4 million revenue in Q3 24, 21% YoY growth

In addition to these two products, Axsome has multiple new products in the pipeline, most of which are at late stages (NDA or Phase 3) which can potentially become a huge tail wind in 2025.

The company estimated that the peak sale potentials for all these marketed and late stage products would be $16.5 billion.

Here’s a Seeking Alpha article that has some more details about the company and the products.

Luffy

[monkeydluffy]

Axsome just announced preliminary Q4 results. Both of their commercial stage drugs logged some good growth.

Auvelity’s revenue Q1 ~ Q4:
53.4 → 65 → 80.4 → 92.6 (15.17% QoQ)

Sunosi’s revenue Q1 ~ Q4:
21.6 → 22.1 → 24.4 → 25.7 (5.3% QoQ)

Total revenue would be:
75 → 87.2 → 104.8 → 118.3 (12.88% QoQ)

A couple weeks ago, Axsome reported mixed Phase 3 results for one of their new drugs (AXS-05). The drug was proved to be very effective to prevent relapse of Alzheimer’s disease conditions, though it failed to show statistically significant results for the short-term effectiveness test. The management still thinks the results are overall positive and have submitted the drug for NDA approval.

With continuous revenue growth from the existing drugs and several late stage drugs in the pipeline, I’m speculatively expecting Axsome to continue the strong revenue growth into 2025 and 2026. I’d put a close eye to further news of this company.

Luffy