Puzzles me that AYX is down so much. Thought their results were in line with expectations. Possible short squeeze?, Tableau’s announcement of a more integrated product?, large sale for an unrelated reason such as a more advantageous opportunity? Thoughts?
It “MAY” go down more, but I’m not taking that chance. I’m buying. With those nums and analyst buy recommendations with a $43 target, it seems like a no brainer to add now. I can buy more later if it decreases more.
3 Likes
I am pretty sure it is just that everyone temporarily put all their money in IQ. 
I bought more today on the dip. It is expensive by most measurements, but love the market (making data actionable), the smart leadership, the small size + rapid growth.
Until they post something in ER that strikes me as negative, I am good with holding this one for a while. They were likely a bit lighter on their guidance leading to shakeout of some nervous stock traders today, but I see that as pretty much just them being purposely conservative.
transcript from yesterday’s call:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4171989-alteryxs-ayx-ceo-de…
They low-balled their Q1 forecast, to the point that the very first call taken from analyst is a guy asking how come they landed so much higher. CEO didn’t really have an answer (which just means “hey - I was sandbagging”). This makes it a bit tougher to read between the lines and make assumptions on where you think their growth is headed. In my case, I will be slightly disappointed if they finish the year closer to 40% growth than to 50%+ that I expect.
Here was that exchange:
"Brent Bracelin
Good afternoon, and thanks for taking the questions here. I have a couple here as I want to drill down into – maybe we’ll start with Kevin here in the Q1 results. 50% growth, clearly, much stronger than the midpoint of the guide at 38%. You talked about larger lands, larger expands, but could you just provide any more color on what drove the strength? What surprised you from a demand perspective in Q1 versus your guide?
Kevin Rubin
Yes. Hey, good morning or good afternoon, Brent. Look, I think, we saw strong momentum in both sides of our business. You saw, with respect to the net new lands, we had a lot of momentum in terms of the land portion of the business, and on the expansion side, that continue to work well, 132% net revenue retention. So I don’t know that I would necessarily characterize it as surprised us, but we were encouraged to see strength in both aspects of the go-to-market.
Brent Bracelin
Okay, fair enough. " (aka: thanks for sand-bagging so much…sheesh)
As for the Tableau question, that was brought up too. Seems like Tableau leverages visualization whereas that only occurs about 15% of the time with Alteryx…so CEO downplays the impact. I am not a user of either, so can’t really speak to it, but I am not concerned about Tableau at this time. Here was that exchange:
"Brent Bracelin
Great. And last question for you, Dean, obviously, with the Tableau Prep product out now as a free component of the Crater bundling in included with the desktop products at Tableau. What’s your first blush view? I know you continue to be a sponsor of their user conferences, they sponsor your user conference, so walk us through your first blush view on the Tableau Prep as a free component of Crater?
Dean Stoecker
Well, I think it does a couple things, Brent. First of all, it validates the space we created four years or five years ago. The second thing is, I think that it validates the fact that lightweight data prep is a feature in a product, not a critical component in a platform like ours. Just remember that our use cases tend to be very sophisticated, and they don’t rely on visualization very much. And when I say that, you think about hyper local merchandising to improve same-store sales, but the range of data sets that you would need to be able to access, the scale of those data sets. The output typically is not visualization. It tends to be other output that drives the decisioning at the store level.
We’re rationalizing CapEx has been for store development, complex gravity models being run, leveraging four, five, six different data sets. So I think they’ve done a good job for locking people into the Tableau experience, and the fact that you can write TDEs and spreadsheets. But our users, I think, as we’ve illustrated in many of the past calls, only 15% of the outbound traffic from Alteryx goes into any visualization product. And of the people who write to those visualization products, 50% of their work goes into something other than the visualization. So it’s early. We – our teams are still talking and doing deals together and working on bigger, more interesting accounts together. So I think they do the right things for themselves and validated our actions many years ago."
hth,
Dreamer
14 Likes
Puzzles me that AYX is down so much.
Oh, it’s down because I bought some this week.
Yeah, sorry about that. Happens all the time, actually.
13 Likes
This is awesome. This is one of my favourite buying opportunities. When you have an ER that kills it, completely derisks the investment opportunity and then the stock craters for an opportunity to buy in. It doesn’t happen a lot but for me it is one of the most profitable and lower risk entry points that usually pays back pretty quickly.
Ant
7 Likes