AYX thoughts

AYX reported Q1 2020 that was weaker than I expected. I did not expect growth to decelerate as much as it did. Their European channels were disrupted in March leading to lower numbers in Europe. AYX which gets much of its business in the last month of each quarter saw a steep falloff at the very end of Q1. Yes their forecast for Q2 was really low too. I think that AYX should be getting a lot of tailwinds because digital transformation is accelerating and AYX is offering what customers need to transform and they have virtually no competition. Thus, while there may be a disruption for 2-3 quarters, I think it’s just a blip. Also, I think that adopting and expanding AYX is not IMMEDIATELY necessary like it is for cyber security. But I also believe that G2K companies will soon (if they haven’t already) realize the huge ROI of AYX on their organizations. Yes, AYX seemed to be pulling back when others like DDOG and CRWD are increasing investment, but I think the pull back is in sales and marketing and not in R&D. Just looking at the open positions and the new products tells me that R&D is not slowing down at all. AYX is accelerating development of some new products and programs.

My view is a bit different from others who have scaled back their AYX position. I’ve cut it back only because it was temporarily oversized. AYX remains my largest position and I’m going to watch it recover. Also, I think AYX will rebound harder than the other IT software companies when the economies get back on track.

Chris

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I was interested in AYX. Kind of still am. But their stock performance has been marginal the past year (it’s not much higher than a year ago, which was only slightly off their all-time high in February). I’m kind of surprised this made it on this forum given the emphasis on go-go growth here. They aren’t doing that. The last year has been a saw-tooth, and we’re in a new peak right now.

Recent reports indicate their numbers aren’t great, or at least weaker than expected, and the forecast isn’t great (as you said). You would think a “disruption” (like stay-at-home) wouldn’t affect them much, since people who WFH need to do their jobs and if those jobs entail data analytics then AYX should be relatively unaffected. Yes? What do you think the source of this fall-off is?

My company uses SAS for data analysis, and has been moving to JMP (slowly). We generate a LOT of data, and we have browser interfaces that make SAS fairly easy. AYX appears to be after similar markets. I haven’t seen the platform in action, but perhaps AYX’s product is easier to use?

1poorguy

I was interested in AYX. Kind of still am. But their stock performance has been marginal the past year (it’s not much higher than a year ago, which was only slightly off their all-time high in February). I’m kind of surprised this made it on this forum given the emphasis on go-go growth here. They aren’t doing that. The last year has been a saw-tooth, and we’re in a new peak right now.

I don’t know where you are getting your stats from. I year performance has been +$59.20 or 68.16%.
YTD return has been +$45.99% or 45.96%. If that’s marginal, we are very very spoiled.

Rob
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/AYX/performance

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Easy: https://www.google.com/search?q=ayx&oq=ayx&aqs=chrom…

Click “1 year”. It’s a saw tooth. If you were lucky enough to enter in a lull, you’re up. If you were unlucky enough to enter at a peak, you’re probably flat. If you had the foresight to get in a few years ago, then you’re up (a three bagger, or better). However, the philosophy of this board eschews timing, and it very much depends on when you entered as to whether you’re up or down.

Compare to ZM at one year: https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk03NWY0YpcFZOssz1S1H…

Pretty much “up”.

AYX lately has not been performing by that standards this board appears to set. Which I assume is why there have been lukewarm comments from others here.

“Click “1 year”. It’s a saw tooth. If you were lucky enough to enter in a lull, you’re up. If you were unlucky enough to enter at a peak, you’re probably flat. If you had the foresight to get in a few years ago, then you’re up (a three bagger, or better). However, the philosophy of this board eschews timing, and it very much depends on when you entered as to whether you’re up or down”.

Using your chart, clicking on 1 year: June 3, 2019 price 81.87, current price 144.08. You picked the time period. 1 year increase= $62.21 Of course you can cherry pick another time period but for the one YOU chose I see that as significant improvement. Happy with my 558% on initial entry and current 350% on overall position.

Rob

4 Likes