I’ve been tempted. Am up 20% since my purchase in my Roth in September. But I didn’t buy these shares to trade and have too much cash already, so I will likely hold.
if it gets to $350 I might. Assuming, it doesn’t break out.
1.38x Peak Book = Just in the middle of Jim’s 1.2x-1.55x range.
You just answered my initial thought about price to peak BV. Thanks
Jim also indicated a possible 20% plus rise in share price a few months ago for the succeeding 12 months. We’re about 10% or so up since then I think. Though I’d have to dig into the old posts to check.
We sold too early, but might sell more after January 1st.
I’d be tempted to trim in $350 B range-around P/PBV 1.5. However then we would be approaching a new high and might need to be patient per Jim’s new high rules😁
Remind me? What are his new high rules?
Related to the topic, from the 3rd Q report, I get the following for BV/sh:
Shares outstanding = 617,113(A) + 1,290,474,503(B)/1500 = 1,477,429.3(Equiv A)
Shareholder’s Equity = $455,430,000,000
Book/sh = Shareholder’s Equity / Shares outstanding = $308,258(A) = $206(B)
Simple enough, but first time I’ve done that calculation. No adjustments, which I know some people apply. I’m not that sophisticated Anyone get something different? Or have an adjustment they wish to share?
Related, anyone know where I might get historical BV/sh? I’m not wanting the P/BV series, just the quarterly BV series. If adjustments are made, that’s probably okay, I’d just like to know what they are and know that they were performed consistently throughout the time series. It would probably only take me a few hours to do what I did above for the last 10-20 years or so, going through quarterly reports. But if I could save some time I’d do a puzzle w/ my kid instead
I think BV still has some utility, it is best to move towards WEB’s five grove model. As Berky continues to buy back more shares it will skew, for now, it may be bringing balance to long-lived assets on the book, but at some point it will tilt other way.
Number of shares of common stock outstanding as of October 26, 2022:
Class A — 596,826 Class B — 1,301,981,370
860,316 Equivalent A
617,113 A shares
1,477,429 |Total A
596,826 A Oct 26th
867,988 Equiv A
1,464,814 Total A
12,616 Decrease in A Shares
$5,803,247,453 That would be $5.8 billion bought back since end of 3Q assuming per share price of $460k or so
"On an equivalent Class A common stock basis, there were 1,466,045 shares outstanding as of September 30, 2022"
That brings up an interesting question. WEB was finally convinced to buy back shares at certain low levels of valuation. And he did indeed buy back some shares. I wonder if he would even be convinced to “sell” shares as certain high levels of valuation? (I doubt it, and I don’t even know how he would effect that anyway) Just thinking out loud.
You are using the share counts from December 31st instead of September 30 2022. Hopefully that clears up everyone’s confusion on this thread
This figure should be approx. 1,230 A-share equivalents. Less money spent obviously
Further repurchase estimates can be made from Warren’s 11/23 gift (13d filing). Wabuffo (Bill) does the math so you don’t have to →
short answer, about another ~1200 A-share equivalents 10/26 - 11/23
But it’s also possible there were no repurchases. We don’t have enough significant digits on ownership to tell. The range is 0.9% bought to 0.74% sold.
You are correct. Don’t know how I did that. Sorry for the confusion
|BV per Qtr|