Back around 1.5X book value

Stocks A to Z
1

anyone selling?

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2

I’ve been tempted. Am up 20% since my purchase in my Roth in September. But I didn’t buy these shares to trade and have too much cash already, so I will likely hold.

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if it gets to $350 I might. Assuming, it doesn’t break out.

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1.38x Peak Book = Just in the middle of Jim’s 1.2x-1.55x range.

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5

You just answered my initial thought about price to peak BV. Thanks

Jim also indicated a possible 20% plus rise in share price a few months ago for the succeeding 12 months. We’re about 10% or so up since then I think. Though I’d have to dig into the old posts to check.

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We sold too early, but might sell more after January 1st.

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I’d be tempted to trim in $350 B range-around P/PBV 1.5. However then we would be approaching a new high and might need to be patient per Jim’s new high rules😁

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Remind me? What are his new high rules?

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Related to the topic, from the 3rd Q report, I get the following for BV/sh:

Shares outstanding = 617,113(A) + 1,290,474,503(B)/1500 = 1,477,429.3(Equiv A)
Shareholder’s Equity = $455,430,000,000
Book/sh = Shareholder’s Equity / Shares outstanding = $308,258(A) = $206(B)

Simple enough, but first time I’ve done that calculation. No adjustments, which I know some people apply. I’m not that sophisticated :slight_smile: Anyone get something different? Or have an adjustment they wish to share?

Related, anyone know where I might get historical BV/sh? I’m not wanting the P/BV series, just the quarterly BV series. If adjustments are made, that’s probably okay, I’d just like to know what they are and know that they were performed consistently throughout the time series. It would probably only take me a few hours to do what I did above for the last 10-20 years or so, going through quarterly reports. But if I could save some time I’d do a puzzle w/ my kid instead :slight_smile:

Happy Holidays

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10

I think BV still has some utility, it is best to move towards WEB’s five grove model. As Berky continues to buy back more shares it will skew, for now, it may be bringing balance to long-lived assets on the book, but at some point it will tilt other way.

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Number of shares of common stock outstanding as of October 26, 2022:

Class A — 596,826 Class B — 1,301,981,370

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12

hmmm…

End 3Q

860,316 Equivalent A
617,113 A shares
1,477,429 |Total A

596,826 A Oct 26th
867,988 Equiv A
1,464,814 Total A

12,616 Decrease in A Shares

$5,803,247,453 That would be $5.8 billion bought back since end of 3Q assuming per share price of $460k or so

Seems high

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13

Double Hmmm…

"On an equivalent Class A common stock basis, there were 1,466,045 shares outstanding as of September 30, 2022"

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14

That brings up an interesting question. WEB was finally convinced to buy back shares at certain low levels of valuation. And he did indeed buy back some shares. I wonder if he would even be convinced to “sell” shares as certain high levels of valuation? (I doubt it, and I don’t even know how he would effect that anyway) Just thinking out loud.

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You are using the share counts from December 31st instead of September 30 2022. Hopefully that clears up everyone’s confusion on this thread

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This figure should be approx. 1,230 A-share equivalents. Less money spent obviously

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Further repurchase estimates can be made from Warren’s 11/23 gift (13d filing). Wabuffo (Bill) does the math so you don’t have to →

short answer, about another ~1200 A-share equivalents 10/26 - 11/23

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But it’s also possible there were no repurchases. We don’t have enough significant digits on ownership to tell. The range is 0.9% bought to 0.74% sold.

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You are correct. Don’t know how I did that. Sorry for the confusion :face_with_diagonal_mouth:

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YEAR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
BV per Qtr
2000 38023 37011 37810 38938
2001 40436 38240 38464 37475
2002 37854 39444 40819 41718
2003 52575 45995 46870 50484
2004 55806 52302 52455 55806
2005 56160 57213 58125 59372
2006 61878 62857 66282 70277
2007 71210 74484 77475 78001
2008 77075 76176 77555 70330
2009 66208 73812 81282 82052
2010 89378 86650 90836 95433
2011 97073 98709 96901 99837
2012 106613 107356 111695 114196
2013 120520 122873 126763 134986
2014 138454 142483 144580 146226
2015 146979 149743 151097 155495
2016 157350 160012 163813 171565
2017 178082 182843 187450 211718
2018 211000 217654 228772 212500
2019 224950 233997 243606 261417
2020 229293 245765 264323 287031
2021 293636 311276 316443 342622
2022 345469 314090 310652
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