Hey all, so my time as a community fool was short lived. I struggled too much with the new trading restrictions and the side-effects those restrictions were having on me personally (more stress, less participation on the boards, etc). So it’s back to nevercontent.
Sorry for all the name changing confusion 
But I’m definitely very happy to be able to post freely again.
Neil
Guess the name is apt, then … 
Hi Neil! We’re really glad to have you back as a real person! Missed you. It was a good decision. Those rules are way too constricting.
Saul
Dude, I’m going over to Pro to re-nominate ya for Polaris! Welcome back!
Are you still conducting the Rule Breakers Analysis Club? That looks like a lot of work but your reports are phenomenal.
Karen
Are you still conducting the Rule Breakers Analysis Club?
I am! I think it’s been really good for me, and I can already see that I’m getting more efficient at it.
Neil
Are you still conducting the Rule Breakers Analysis Club?
“I am!”
Neil,
What is the Rule Breakers Analysis Club? Sounds interesting! Where do we find it?
Thanks,
okapimoon
Hi okapimoon,
What is the Rule Breakers Analysis Club? Sounds interesting! Where do we find it?
A little over a month ago I decided to analyze, rate, and write up my thoughts on a random company each week in order to get better at analyzing companies. I like the “random” aspect because it forces me to look at companies I never would have otherwise, but I also wanted to work in a controlled environment of MF recs. So I chose to do it in Rulebreakers (analyzing a random RB company each week). A few other Fools have joined in, which has been great – it’s always more fun with company
Each Friday, I post on the RB: How Goes It? board what random company we’ll be looking at that week, and then on the following Thursday we post our thoughts on the company-specific RB board and talk about it. We’re on our 5th company this week.
Anyway, it’s been really good for me so far, and it’d certainly be fun to have more folks join in. Even if you don’t have an RB subscription – and I know not everyone does – I still would highly recommend assigning yourself a company to analyze each week and posting your thoughts somewhere for discussion. Whether or not you think a company makes any sense as an investment, there’s almost always something to learn from it.
But if you do have an RB subscription, come join us! There’s a new company each week, so you don’t have to worry about getting bogged down. I crashed and burned on CELG last week, but that’s all just a distant memory now And if you find yourself too busy for whatever reason and need to sit out a week, you can jump back in the following week. It’s super casual – just some Fools having fun and trying to improve their skills a little bit at a time.
Neil
I crashed and burned on CELG last week,
Neil, I read your analysis on the CELG board and thought it was great, and quite helpful.
Saul
I read your analysis on the CELG board and thought it was great, and quite helpful.
Thanks, Saul. I just wish I knew better how to deal with the patent and pipeline issues. I think if you ignore that and look at earnings and growth, CELG is clearly a solid buy today: its current drugs are doing well and growing, the company is continuing to expand globally, and management has hinted that their 5-year forward EPS estimates are very conservative.
But once you bring patent expiration back into the picture, I just don’t know how to evaluate things anymore. How do you judge the pipeline and decide if those drugs will be blockbusters that not only replace revenues from current drugs as those taper off, but also drive future growth as well? And if someone isn’t going to count on that, then what’s their plan for the next few years – just hope for the best and try to get out before everyone else rushes to the exits?
So that’s where I feel like I fell short. I just don’t know how to evaluate that situation. How is everyone else here thinking about it?
Neil
<Each Friday, I post on the RB: How Goes It? board what random company we’ll be looking at that week, and then on the following Thursday we post our thoughts on the company-specific RB board and talk about it. We’re on our 5th company this week.>
Thanks, Neil.
This sounds great. I do have an RB sub, so definitely will come over and check it out.
okapimoon
I felt the same way about CELG last week. I read through the 10-K and felt that it was the pipeline that mattered and no way (except past performance) to know what will turn into a revenue stream. Might be a good investment, but as far as analysis…, I saw no reason to delve into the financials.
I do have small investments (bets, really) in SGEN, ANLY, ISIS and did have GILD, but these as a basket for exposure to biotech industry, not any sort of analysis.
Apropos baskets in biotech, I started off thinking it was a sector I wanted to stay away from because there was so much of a binary crap shoot where it would go through the moon or the floor overnight and it was very difficult to forecast … one might even say impossible, really. Then, I got myself talked into a couple that seemed to have strong conviction, something that clearly worked, so how could it miss? And, yet, they did, two of them not because the drug didn’t work, but over business issues. The other over, it worked, but just not the right stuff for the market. So, in each of these, I would have been better sticking with my original conviction. Which said, I have done alright with IBB …