Backtesting Trading Systems


Take a look at the following where you can see that the results obtained with an EOD, 20/200 EMA, X-oversystem done on BOIL are pretty sucky.

Now come the caveats:

#1, Yesterday’s market can’t be bought. (“Past reuslts …yadda, yadda.”)
#2, The data set was small. just 500 days.
#3, An 8% stop loss was used.
#4, Entries and exists are at market close.

EDIT. Opps. Due to the reverse split last April, these results have to be discarded.

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Here’s a chart for CANE.

Another backtest.

I’m not using the 20 200 day ema (looking at it) and I’m just taking a close look at SSez to see how successful it is with my knowledge. I introduced the BOIL signal change on that other thread to get input and so far the input from you, Quill and Lakedog has been interesting and educational. Thanks…doc

I’ve been watching BTG for an entry point and yesterday after the market there was no flag, but this morning there is a flag for 2 days ago $2.97 so this system isn’t all that as they say. There is a component where you use your head and take an educated guess on buying and selling since there so far hasn’t been a foolproof system that approaches 99% IMHO…doc


Good observation. BUT !

Going to assume there was no label posted yesterday and it appeared that BTG was on its way north.

Today, there was a SELL signal for BTG

I want you to read the following very carefully. The rules are to SELL when Simon gave the signal.

Now the FLAG IS POSTED AT THE EXACT TIME the SELL signal appeared. Same for the BUY signal.

FLAGS never appear by themselves without a follow-up signal.

You could be staring at the exact moment and poooooof WHAT the heck happened. A FLAG popped UP and Simon signal appeared as well.

Oooooor the FLAG disappears when today’s signal rises above yesterday’s high creating a new HIGH.

Also yesterday SIMON gave a BUY signal if you may recall in your observations.

Your options for today 12/15/2023 is to wait and wait until to 3:30 pm EST. to make an informed decision. Who knows BTG and springboard back going higher than the FLAG. I’ll watch BTG with you to see what happens. All appearances BTG will rise above 3.32.

Same for BUYiNG at the bottom. Strange things can happen with possible head fakes.

I wish you the best,

Quill -

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In your observations, what is the dominant colour OHLC bar after the FLAGS being posted. If you see RED, the odds are saying SELLl. GREEN wait until 3: 30PM. Just the opposite at the LOWS. GREEN go for it. RED OHLC’s wait until 3:30 pm EST.

Reviewing the last dozen or so HIGHS for BTG. only one had a GREEN OHLC bar. The rest were all RED.

A lot of stuff is coming at you to be retained in the back of your head. Take two (2) aspirin’s and call yourself in the morning. :o)))

Quill -

Thanks, that makes sense. I set an alarm on my phone for 10 am and 2:30PM to check the charts…doc