Backup for electric power

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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We live on the remote Olympic Peninsula, where we lose power a couple of times a year, usually during windy weather. (Generally in winter.) I can heat and cook with the wood stove. We have a land line phone which doesn’t lose power. (Plus I have backup battery power for my cell phone and lanterns.) I have bottled water in the pantry. We also have a pond that could be purified for longer-term use.

I have considered backup electric power but so far haven’t gone for it. If I couldn’t heat and cook with wood I would feel much less secure. We haven’t had extended blackouts (longer than a day).

People in suburbia and cities are more vulnerable to blackouts. Businesses also, especially ones with perishable inventory, health care facilities and data centers. This is a growing market niche.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/amid-power-outages-americans-bu…

**Wary of Being Left in the Dark, Americans Produce Their Own Power**
**The market for backup generators, microgrids and solar-plus-battery-storage systems is booming as homeowners and businesses grapple with a less reliable electric grid**

**by Jennifer Hiller, The Wall Street Journal, 2/19/2022**

**...**
**Manufacturers delivered more than 143,000 generators last year in North America, up from 138,778 in 2015, despite pandemic-related supply-chain logjams, said Lucrecia Gomez, a research director at consulting firm Frost & Sullivan. Microgrids, which can create islands of power for campuses, businesses or neighborhoods amid a blackout, grew more than sevenfold between 2010 and 2019, according to the industry group Edison Electric Institute....**

**New Orleans nonprofits are now stepping in to try to provide emergency power. Together New Orleans, a coalition of religious and civic groups, is raising money to add rooftop solar with batteries to 85 congregations and community centers. Their goal is for everyone in New Orleans to be a mile or less away from what they are calling “community lighthouses...”** [end quote]

The “community lighthouse” concept is for emergency refuges. The electric power grid is more vulnerable in specific areas, like California where power is being shut off to prevent wild fires.

The choices seem to be diesel or gasoline powered generators or solar panels. Adding batteries expands capability but increases installation costs.

How many METARs have backup electric power?
Wendy

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The electric power grid is more vulnerable in specific areas, like California where power is being shut off to prevent wild fires.

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Areas east of the Rocky mountains are the most vulnerable to grid outages as demonstrated by the tornados, hurricanes, cold/snow/ice/wind storms, and floods.

California’s wildfire shut offs were more localized and shorter duration compared to Eastern US outages last year. In Sonoma County we had only one shut off for less than 3 hours in my area.

PG&E has made significant progress in not shutting off large areas. They have more grid capability to shut off only those areas in danger. PG&E is also going to underground transmission lines.

In Western Washington state the rain forests are protecting you. But will the mega climate change cause the rains to decline and forest fires to become an problem?

Jaak

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How many METARs have backup electric power?
Wendy

Budgeted to install auto start Generac whole house system for this year.

(Generac lead times are running around six months; high demand I guess.)

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Backup for electric power

Got a chuckle from your post. Reminded me of a job application I made in 1998-9 with a (major mfr–Cummins? Don’t remember the company name) company (local to me in MN) that built home generators (as are popular now). They wanted to know how I intended to plan for the possible Y2K shutdowns if they happened. I told them I’d prep to build a LOT of generators FAST–and they apparently did not like it. They hired someone else. Wonder what they are doing now?

We only lose power when something very unexpected happens. Car hits a tree that takes down the power lines to the building. Lightning strike that hits the building and knocks out some power stacks (i.e., all the x04 apartments lose one or more outlets and/or circuits). Last time, I lost 3-4 outlets–but none of them were for computer eqpt, which I had on UPSes. One time, lightning hit the power transformer at a (different) building. The transformer was on the back plaza of the building–maybe 15 ft away from the building and knocked out all building power for a week. The outside transformer was replaced, but a new transformer was soon built thereafter and installed inside the underground garage, so a lightning strike on it was then highly improbable. The outside transformer was then removed as not needed.

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I have an instant on generac as well as solar panels. My grid connection here in Mexico is very unreliable, and I am moving to go independent.

My existing panels are 10 year olde tech, and I will replace them as well as doubling their numbers next year or so, and add a big home battery. Then I may sell my Generac, possibly for more than I paid for it new. They are in big demand.

david fb

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How many METARs have backup electric power?

We installed a Generac GP-8000 gas powered generator about 3 years ago. Have had to use it 3 times since we purchased it. We’ve lost our power for days and one time an entire week, so we agreed that having one would be a good investment.

'38Packard

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California’s wildfire shut offs were more localized and shorter duration compared to Eastern US outages last year. In Sonoma County we had only one shut off for less than 3 hours in my area.

In Silicon Valley PG&E has warned a couple of times that power might get shut off due to fire danger. However it has never happened in the 2 or 3 years they have been doing these safety shutoffs.

People outside of CA tend to think that something that happens in one part of the state happens everywhere.

Mike

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We bought a house in Summer 2019 that just happened to have an whole house generator. It was not an intentional thing that we were looking for and just luck of the draw. The generator is tied into the natural gas at the street.

We lose power 3-4 times a year, and it can be for 3-5 days. I understand now why there are so many whole house generators in this neighborhood. Outages are so frequent that Dominion has offered to bury the lines in our neighborhood, but I doubt they will get enough people to grant them the right of ways. Not only would the poles stay up, but the cable lines and phone lines would remain in place, with half the neighborhood also getting new lawn ornaments to mow around where other houses got linked into the grid. Aesthetically a lose lose.

It is amazing when we lose power. 10 seconds or so later and the generator kicks on and powers the house. We can run almost everything, though not necessarily at the same time. You have to chose between the electric stove/oven and the electric dryer. Not sure why they went electric for those things given the gas at the street.

It’s not so cheap though. Besides installation, you can count on up to $500/year in maintenance contracts and check ups. That said, I don’t think I ever want to be without one again.

IP

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I live in the Redwood forest. Power goes out from limb falls and tree falls during storms every winter. For short outages I bring in my deep cycle RV battery that’s always on a tender and hook up a small inverter for lights, phone and internet. For longer outages I have a 2kw Honda generator that is very quiet, sips gas and will run the fridge. I have a bunch of heavy duty extension cords and splitters that I run from a window throughout the house. One of these days I’ll install a transfer switch but like a lot of things it’s like the part in The Arkansas Traveller about the roof leak.

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I have a 2kw Honda generator that is very quiet, sips gas and will run the fridge.

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That is what I do at my house. But I can also run some lights/computers/TVs. I have only had two 3 hour fire safety shutoffs in the last 4 years. I did have a 6 hour shutoff when PG&E replaced a power pole for 4 houses 2 years ago.

Jaak

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In Hong Kong the electricity supplier gets a guaranteed return (stupidly high) on the installed asset base.

So they make sure there is a large installed asset base, everything tripled up … huge excess capacity.

We have never had an outage in 30 years here.

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How many METARs have backup electric power?

After Hurricane Wilma, we lost power for nearly a week. We had to defrost everything in the freezer and cook it over the first 3-4 days. My sister baked challah (a kind of bread) on the grill, and it was terrific! I cooked eggs everyday on the grill, and made pasta, sauces, etc. Luckily as the storm moved out, a cold front moved in, so we didn’t need A/C for a few days.

So, a few weeks later, I bought a big generator (8550W peak, 10HP) for the next extended power outage. Since buying that generator, we haven’t lacked power for more than an hour or two all that time, that’s nearly 18 1/2 years. Of course, the generator is still in the original box and was never opened or started once. But I’ll say it worked admirably as the goal has been accomplished. :crazy_face:

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My existing panels are 10 year olde tech, and I will replace them

This is one of the reasons why I haven’t installed solar panels yet. The illustrations always show the payback over periods of 15, 20, or 25 years … yet nobody ever mentions that you may possibly change them in 10 years.

To be fair, since prices have declined (well not recently but pre-shortages), the periods have indeed gotten somewhat shorter. But the point still stands, though to a lesser extent.

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I live in an area that isn’t prone to hurricanes (there was serious damage from one in 1972, but the damage was from floods, not wind), and in an inner suburb. I haven’t been interested in buying a generator.

I did look into “portable power stations” – storage batteries that will power 120-volt devices for some amount of time. Only the very largest and heaviest would keep a refrigerator running.

I have a propane stove and a gas grill, plus a fitting to connect the large tank for the grill to the stove. My biggest concern that one of those portable power stations would meet is charging my phone, which would only require a small one, but the jump charger for my car can do that.

This thread does remind me to make sure that I have batteries for a portable radio, battery lanterns, etc. I also have a strange little radio that can be charged by cranking a handle, but its reception is mediocre.

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When I first tried to install solar panels, the vendor told me to come back when I got a new roof. They wouldn’t install them on an ordinary roof more than about five years old, because the roof would likely need replacing before the panels did.

Got new roof in 2013 and solar panels in 2014, but my system is net-metering without any storage, so no use during a grid outage.

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This is one of the reasons why I haven’t installed solar panels yet. The illustrations always show the payback over periods of 15, 20, or 25 years … yet nobody ever mentions that you may possibly change them in 10 years.
To be fair, since prices have declined (well not recently but pre-shortages), the periods have indeed gotten somewhat shorter. But the point still stands, though to a lesser extent.

It was true a decade ago that each year you waited you saved more in the cost of a system than the system would save you in electricity. That is no longer true.

Around 2010 the year over year cost reductions could be on the order of 10%, even 15% each year, but that cost curve has been flattening and is asymptotically approaching zero, with recent reductions being more in the 1% to 3% range for both home installs and industrial scale.

That doesn’t mean costs won’t continue to come down (a little), but absent some miracle technological breakthrough it appears the low hanging fruit has been pretty well picked.

Here’s a chart; you can see the dramatic changes a decade ago, and now - not so much.

https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2021/documenting-a-decade-…

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It was true a decade ago that each year you waited you saved more in the cost of a system than the system would save you in electricity. That is no longer true.

And when I run my numbers, they still don’t reach payback in my case*. Hence, I haven’t installed solar yet. Now, when I ran the numbers for EVs, the numbers worked quite admirably. I still can’t believe that my EVs are 3 to 5 times more efficient (miles/$, the only meaningful measure in this case) than my former ICE vehicles.

  • My case is an all electric house, ~$100/mo in winter, ~$200-250/mo in summer. Call it $2000/yr or so. Putting in solar would cost me $40,000 (standard panels, no battery storage) to $90,000 (Tesla roof panels with battery storage). It’s just not worth it right now.
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And when I run my numbers, they still don’t reach payback in my case*. Hence, I haven’t installed solar yet. Now, when I ran the numbers for EVs, the numbers worked quite admirably. I still can’t believe that my EVs are 3 to 5 times more efficient (miles/$, the only meaningful measure in this case) than my former ICE vehicles.

Well, the real meaningful measure is total cost. EVs tend to be more expensive to buy, less expensive to maintain, somewhat less expensive to “fuel”, but depreciate more as they approach the ‘end-of-battery-life’ period as they reach 10 years or so. On that basis EVs are modestly less expensive; I have not seen any analysis that says they are as much cheaper as you say.v

* My case is an all electric house, ~$100/mo in winter, ~$200-250/mo in summer. Call it $2000/yr or so. Putting in solar would cost me $40,000 (standard panels, no battery storage) to $90,000 (Tesla roof panels with battery storage). It’s just not worth it right now.

I’m also in an all electric house, but further north (Tennessee). We have some significant winter heating costs (even with geothermal HVAC) and truly significant summer A/C costs. Our house happens to be perfectly positioned for solar (both EV and passive) and I have gotten quotes, ranging from $40,000 and up. We also have a cedar shake roof which two of the installers refuse to work on (because unlike asphalt or metal it’s not “continuous” so the chance for leaks is greater. Not a deal killer, but not a happy deal point, either.)

Anyway, either straight PV or PV+battery it’s a no, given TVA’s rule change. (I have neighbors who did very well even 10 years ago when TVA was rebating retail. They have slashed that now to wholesale “avoided cost”.)

I added 12 panels cantilevered off our deck, and direct wired to a (used) water heater in line with the regular one. Depending on the sun and the day it raises the temperature going into our WH by 20-80 degrees. A water heater typically costs about 17% of the electric bill. I guess (because I do not know and cannot precisely measure) that I save half that cost (I did the modest plumbing myself), so I save maybe 10% of $300/mo, or ~$350 a year. The panels cost $100 each, mounting hardware another $20, so I figure I’ll pay for them in 4-5 years, and better, I get to thumb my nose at TVA’s retrograde policies because I’m saving retail electrons instead of being reimbursed for wholesale ones. And since there’s no electrical connection to the grid, TVA (and the local provider) can’t say anything about it.

Not ideal maybe, but better than nothing. My favorite is that the panels face the river, so it’s “advertising” that solar works, in spite.

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Well, the real meaningful measure is total cost. EVs tend to be more expensive to buy, less expensive to maintain, somewhat less expensive to “fuel”, but depreciate more as they approach the ‘end-of-battery-life’ period as they reach 10 years or so. On that basis EVs are modestly less expensive; I have not seen any analysis that says they are as much cheaper as you say.

I’m only stating what my personal experience is so far. My previous 4-door ICE sedan got about 50 miles/$10, and my current 4-door EV sedan gets about 250 miles/$10. That’s a big difference, a lot more than “somewhat”, and gets bigger as gasoline prices rise. The old sedan needed to be replaced, and I spent about as much on the EV replacement as I would have spent on an ICE replacement, maybe a couple of thousand more at most (I didn’t spring for the ripoff fake “FSD” option that was $10k at the time).

We also bought a second EV (used) that replaced a minivan being used for a commute, and that one is comparatively just as economical for us.

Also, it is important to consider insurance costs. Right now, insurance on the EV is a bit(!) higher than insurance on an equivalent ICE, probably due to the cost of repairs, and maybe a bit due to the superb acceleration. It appears to be about $300 higher right now, so the fuel savings on the first ~2000 miles every 6 months goes towards the increased insurance costs. I will, of course, be searching for less expensive insurance.

A water heater typically costs about 17% of the electric bill.

Yes. The HWH uses a lot of electricity. A few years ago, I purchased a closeout heat pump version HWH, had it installed, and my electric bill went down by $12-16 a month. It was a super great deal which included free shipping, and it shipped from Oregon … so the shipping itself cost as much as I paid for the whole damn thing!

I added 12 panels cantilevered off our deck, and direct wired to a (used) water heater in line with the regular one. Depending on the sun and the day it raises the temperature going into our WH by 20-80 degrees. A water heater typically costs about 17% of the electric bill. I guess (because I do not know and cannot precisely measure) that I save half that cost (I did the modest plumbing myself), so I save maybe 10% of $300/mo, or ~$350 a year. The panels cost $100 each, mounting hardware another $20, so I figure I’ll pay for them in 4-5 years, and better, I get to thumb my nose at TVA’s retrograde policies because I’m saving retail electrons instead of being reimbursed for wholesale ones. And since there’s no electrical connection to the grid, TVA (and the local provider) can’t say anything about it.

PV panels? I wonder if those black pool heater elements would have worked just well with no necessity of a second tank or any electricity at all (except perhaps a small pump to move the water around a bit). I mean like this - https://enersol.com/enersol-pool-heater/

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Putting in solar would cost me $40,000 (standard panels, no battery storage) to $90,000 (Tesla roof panels with battery storage).

Many, many MUCH cheaper options out there for solar. I do admit they are not as pretty, though.

IP