Barry Ritholtz looks at the problems inherent in polling. This is not a political post

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The polls are bought to say my candidate is in trouble please vote.

Or my candidate is going to beat the other person we got this so vote.

The opposite in each case is true.

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All statements are false.

DB2

YUP yup yup, and remember to kill all but the bald barbers so as to lower epistemological confusion.

d fb

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David, are you a Bertrand Russell fan?

DB2

For context see: Barber paradox - Wikipedia

My older brother introduced me (via Cretan barbers and an utterly simplistic but useful summary of Godel’s Incompleteness theorems) to Bertrand’s uber-logical mathematical philosophical project and its failure when I was just 8 years old, and falling madly in love with the possibility of some “sovereign” form of logic.

I was very young and only dimly understood what he was attempting to tell me, but I grasped the arrogance of the Frege/Cantor/Bertrand project, and loved the expansiveness of ultimate unproveability. I listened to a lecture by Bertrand Russell Dad found on an LP at the public library, intensely disliked it and arrogant British Him (and I never got over that initial distaste), and egotistically never referred to him by his/my last name ever since, finding “Bertrand” sufficient.

Usefully, Bertrand’s anodyne atheism made me abjure my previous simplistic atheism despite my disgust with Sunday School doctrines from a very young age.

Much later, when I was 18, I discovered Wittgenstein’s TLP (Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus - Wikipedia) and never looked back. It answers and refutes and extends Bertrand’s ambitions, and yet it was Bertrand who gave Wittgenstein his crucial initial kudos!

For the 5 decades since I have kept my extremely intensively margins-noted and late night shrieked at TLP at my bedside, along with my beloved but also absurd Book of Common Prayer.

The TLP ends by wonderfully stating:

6.54 My propositions serve as elucidations in the following way: anyone who understands me eventually recognizes them as nonsensical, when he has used them—as steps—to climb up beyond them. (He must, so to speak, throw away the ladder after he has climbed up it.)
He must transcend these propositions, and
then he will see the world aright.
7.What we cannot speak about we must pass
over in silence.

I will never forget the dizzying glory I experienced on first reading and truly comprehending that.

d fb

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That is what I said. You did not like the conclusion?

The Barber Paradox: If someone is a barber who cuts the hair of all and only those who do not cut their own hair, does that person cut his own hair? If he does, he doesn’t, and if he doesn’t, he does. Solution: There is no such barber ; the very concept of such a barber is incoherent.

You both agree with me, the polls are incoherent.

The polls are purposely incoherent in every election cycle.

We are watching a drama unfold. The polls are bought to feed the drama. The polls lead some to vote out of worry. Some to vote out of success.

Neither is true. All statements are false.

Dramas are not logical or real. They are full of fictions.

I know. It’s just that what you said is a logical contradiction.

DB2

read above

Do you feel we are witnessing logic in our politics?

I want the lower of the deficits and the better industrial policy. It’s the economy stupid.

Lots of people do not comprehend how or why an economy runs the way it does. They just WANT. What do they WANT? They do not have a clue. Never have, never will. Pefect cannon fodder.

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ÂżBertrand, the teapot atheist?

The Captain
an atheist who believes that gods exists.

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