Bear's Mid-Month Review

Ticker	Curr%
DDOG	31.5%
MDB	15.7%
SNOW	11.8%
BILL	10.9%
CRWD	10.5%
NET	 7.3%
ZS	 1.7%
cash    10.7%

Some people have asked, since I’ve reduced Zscaler and sold SentinelOne, what am I adding to? Well, there it is – namely, Datadog, Mongo, Snowflake, Crowdstrike, and Cloudflare. I also have a few general thoughts. I’m optimistic, as I said in a post recently, because occasionally I feel we all need a little encouragement lately. Some have emailed me and asked, “Why are you buying now, when macro things seem bleak?” Well, the more things are down, the more I feel like the spring is coiled for the long run. But there’s really no timing involved – it’s simply a confidence that the stock market will continue to work the way it has for its entire history: Things go down, things go up. Even with my many mistakes, and changing companies often, the process has worked well for many years (for Saul, for a few decades). So the goal is simply staying in the game. This is achieved by:

  1. Surviving! – hat tip to PoleekoCowboy here: – basically this entails not doing anything stupid (like with leverage).
  2. continuing to seek the best companies. Let me talk about the ones I think are the best right now.

Datadog (currently at ~$88/share for a $31b mkt cap) – There’s really nothing like it. They dominate their space so thoroughly, and the secular tailwind at their back is none other than the cloud itself. Chang explains it better than I can:…

MongoDB (currently at ~$242/share for a $19b mkt cap) and Snowflake (currently at ~$118/share for a $42b mkt cap) – These two dominate the database world right now, especially where things are growing the fastest. The consumption based model is most supported when the use case is most mission-critical, which is why I slightly prefer Mongo, but Snowflake has the edge when it comes to optionality and what they might be creating with the Data Marketplace. (currently at ~$109/share for a $12b mkt cap) – This is maybe the most boring business that’s nearly tripled its revenue in the last year. They’re a little on the complicated side, and a little on the hard to predict side (lots of moving pieces), so I’m probably going to keep this mid-sized going forward, but I love the way they’re growing!

Crowdstrike (currently at ~$162/share for a $39b mkt cap) – This has become a cash cow and is still in hypergrowth! They’re going to maybe triple their EPS this year. And grow revenue near 60%. Definitely deserves a spot – and CRWD might end up being the reason S slows down.

Cloudflare (currently at ~$41/share for a $14b mkt cap) – Lower conviction here for me than for many others, but I’m learning. As an innovation machine it’s off the charts, but the financials are boring and steady. Could be a combo for a solid future.

Zscaler (currently at ~$145/share for a $21b mkt cap) – I haven’t totally given up yet, but I need to see them be more efficient.

Good luck out there, everyone. Notice I didn’t mention the FED and the potential 0.75% rate hike later today. Honestly, either we get a rally or we get a buying opportunity. I don’t particularly care which.



I have slightly different market cap levels. But more important the enterprise value, for example Snowflake has about $5 billion in cash.

I have these numbers:

SNOW, market cap $38 billion, enterprise value $33.5 billion
DDOG, market cap $27.88 billion, enterprise value $27 billion
MDB, market cap $16.9 billion, enterprise value $16.3 billion
NET, market cap $14 billion, enterprise value $13.86 billion