My 2019 Portfolio Performance YTD as of
Jan +22.48% Feb +33.46% Mar +38.27% Apr +46.86% May +43.50%
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2018-3…
Jan 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-jan-2019-3…
Feb 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-feb-2019-3…
Mar 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-mar-2019-3…
Apr 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-apr-2019-3…
January - DOCU
February - SAIL
March - TTD (again), ESTC (again) and MDB (again)
April - None
May - SQ (again), ZS (again), EVBG, PLAN
January - SHOP, SQ
February - WIX, MDB
March - PSTG, ZS
April - None
May - SAIL, ZEN, NEWR, OKTA
My Current Allocations
Ticker Curr% Buy/S Mo Ch YTD Ch AYX 11.9% 11% -2.0% 46.1% TWLO 9.1% -38% -3.8% 47.8% TTD 7.6% 87% -10.2% 71.3% DOCU 6.5% 31% -1.1% 39.9% MDB 5.8% 50% -0.4% 67.6% TDOC 5.6% 0% 2.2% 17.2% SMAR 4.4% 0% 1.5% 72.9% ESTC 3.4% 0% -4.1% 14.8% PLAN 3.0% NEW 10.8% 63.9% EVBG 2.7% NEW 6.4% 38.5% SQ 2.6% AGAIN -14.9% 10.4% ARNA 2.2% 0% 15.9% 36.1% ZS 0.9% AGAIN 0.5% 75.0% options 1.9% cash 32.4%
WHY I DID WHAT I DID THIS MONTH
EVBG - I haven’t posted about it because I don’t have too many thoughts on this one yet, but growth seems to be accelerating a bit, and the PS is only 16 or so. Also only a 2.6 billion company, so it should have room to grow.
ZS - bought back a tiny position today. Could have further to fall, but I don’t know.
SAIL after earnings disappointed and they admitted problems
ZEN - It was up about 50% in 5 months (I bought in Dec), and it failed to really captivate me, though their growth has been steady. I think it will continue to beat the market. That said, it’s less of a bargain than it was in December.
OKTA - a decent quarter but a share price that I don’t understand
Added to or Trimmed
TWLO - trimmed after a report where growth was not what I expected
AYX - Added a small amount on the dip in the last week or two
TTD - Almost doubled my small position. People are worried about the 41% growth this past Q. I’m not: https://discussion.fool.com/ttd-raw-numbers-34205210.aspx and https://discussion.fool.com/so-assuming-they-do-in-fact-beat-aga…
DOCU - Added a decent amount, as I’m confident in their position and opportunities. Hoping revenue growth will accelerate.
MDB - Added 50% to my small position, on a dip.
ROKU - I passed for now, but I remain interested. I just don’t understand them yet. It’s advertising, not SaaS. And very different than TTD’s Switzerland model. ROKU owns the spots they are selling. https://discussion.fool.com/fieldy-this-seems-totally-huge-1-sel…
ETSY - Doesn’t seem to have the visibility of true SaaS or even a SQ or SHOP. Also, revenue growth is slowish (will prob be below 40% in 2019).
CVNA - after taking a quick look: https://discussion.fool.com/my-case-against-carvana-34212390.asp…
I remain cash-heavy as things remain very expensive. We could be in for a dip, but we could also just be in for a slower climb than we’re used to. Or I could just be wrong and we could keep skyrocketing. Whatever happens, I’ll be happy with the strategy I’m employing now. I don’t love having a 30%+ cash position, but at this point this is just what makes sense to me.
Good luck, everyone!
“I guarantee nothing but hard work.” - Bear Bryant, Alabama Football Coach, 1958 - 1982
“A man’s gotta know his limitations.” - Dirty Harry
“If you must tell me your opinions, tell me what you believe in. I have plenty of doubts of my own.” attributed to Goethe (but not sourced)
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
“exponential compounded growth does not fit the analytical backward looking skill sets of most Wall street analysts” - mauser96
“I presume the thing is to ride the momentum for the short squeeze and exit fast with enough money for a few months supply of whisky before everyone realises it’s a value trap.” - Strelna