Bear's Q4 Earnings Thoughts vol2

volume 1:…

Well to say a lot has been happening is an understatement, but for purposes of this post I’ll stick to earnings reports.

Not too much has happened with my stocks yet, but I keep an eye on several companies I don’t own, so I thought I’d go ahead and discuss them.

The tech giants (FAANG) reported week before last, and I wanted to make a few points:

I’ve never been a big NFLX or AAPL bull, but GOOG, AMZN, and FB often look attractive. Not only that, but my conviction rating on these companies would be nearly 10. I just usually have other stuff I see even more opportunity with (mostly because there’s more runway). However, I often recommend AMZN, GOOG, and FB to friends who don’t want to put in more work. I honestly believe a basket of these three stocks alone will beat the market. Ultimately, other than regulatory concerns, I don’t see anything stopping them. Regarding Q4 earnings, I didn’t see any major surprises, and GOOG and FB seem very attractive right now – both are about even on the year. AMZN, even after pulling back, is still up 15% in 2018.

Chipotle (CMG) - Well I hope somebody listened to my sell rec:… because CMG had another abysmal quarter. Slow improvement is one way to put it. Still ridiculously overvalued is how I would put it. I’ll leave it there unless anyone has questions or comments.

New Relic (NEWR) - I wrote this company up because this quarter was so good it made me buy back in: The short version is that the march toward profitability is on (like Donkey Kong), and the it seems their customers simply love them and continue spending more on their platform. Here’s their press release:…

Hortonworks (HDP) - Another fantastic quarter. Even though the headline was that they were operating cash flow positive, I think my favorite part is that the 60%+ subscription revenue growth kept up! Well, that and the enormous deferred revenue. And here’s the press release…

Still waiting on most of my companies to report:

Next week, Shopify (SHOP), Arista (ANET), Wix (WIX), Hubspot (HUBS), Talend (TLND), and Instructure (INST).

Volume three will certainly be on the way after next week! My best to all.



but I keep an eye on several companies I don’t own, so I thought I’d go ahead and discuss them.

Sorry, that was confusing. I do own Hortonworks (have for over a year), and I now own New Relic.


Chipotle (CMG) - Well I hope somebody listened to my sell rec…

Come on, Bear, being bearish on Chipotle is like shooting fish tacos in a bucket (except they don’t sell fish tacos in their restaurants). ;^)

I’ve had fun gawking at the train wreck over on the SA CMG board for a while now. Lots of people there keep hoping for a bottom, but management just admitted that going after “lapsed” customers isn’t worth it. Even with the recent decline to 5+ year lows the PE is still over 40 compared to solid but not rapid companies like MCD, which is about 25.