Bert Hochfeld on Paycom

Hello PAYC fans.

As you know, I respect the analysis of Bert Hochfeld despite his checkered past (the article contains a link to the author’s profile, if you need or want more detail). He has exited PAYC, citing valuation concerns. While I basically agree with his analysis, I don’t personally draw the same conclusion. This is still a fast-growing company with a long runway ahead of it. Yes, it is probably over-valued at present based on expectations of next quarter’s results. But I’m playing a longer-term game, and I’m willing to ride out short-term volatility where I envision long-term growth. That said, I wanted to be sure you saw this well thought-out analysis.…

Thanks and best wishes,
TMFDatabaseBob (long: AMT)
See my holdings here:
Peace on Earth


Hi Bob, I see it the same way as you. I’m not interested in selling out my position in a great company in the hope of buying it back cheaper later, as he seems to recommend. It’s very short term thinking. And I’m no good at picking that kind of exit and entrance point.


I’m no good at picking that kind of exit and entrance point.

Saul, if you’re no good at timing, I probably hold the record for bad timing. Seems without fail that every time I buy, the stock goes down and every time I sell, the stock goes up.

I just bought more Paycom last week, so you can be virtually assured that it will soon retreat. But longer term, I think it’s an extremely good company with extremely good products and extremely good prospects. I’m confident that the stock will perform well over the next few years.