Answer to an off board question

I received this question off-board but I feel I should answer it for everyone:

Hi Saul–curious what your take on Bert Hochfield is. I’m a relatively new subscriber of his, and I’m a little perplexed about why he has given picks like NTNX and CLDR so much rope? I know you’re a long-time subscriber and you’ve recommended his service in the past. My initial take is most of his analysis is great, but at the same time he seems a little bit naive as far as taking management like NTNX’s at their word, and also a bit stubborn about moving on from a bad call.

Welcome to the real world. Bert is excellent at analyzing companies and recommending them initially. He got me into Alteryx and Twilio and Shopify in the $20’s for instance, which was worth 100 years of subscriptions to his inexpensive newsletter, but like so, so, many, he’s old fashioned about getting out. He holds on to losers like Nutanix, hoping they will turn around, and he recently sold 75% of his Zscaler position because it has gone up as much as it has, although he saw no deterioration of performance, which is the exact opposite of what I would do. So you have to recognize and accept that and value him for his analysis and for finding great companies before others find them, and giving you the courage to get in to them, but make your own decisions on which of the companies to get into, and when to get out.

I hope this helps,




I received this insightful post with a great quote off board:

Hi SaulI was just reading the board and saw your comment on Bert. It reminded of a recent favorite quote I saw in a Motley Fool article. They said, if you sell your winners and keep your losers you end up with a portfolio of losers. Makes so much sense.

So I, too, try to do the opposite of that. There was a time when I’d naively add more and more to losers and it has caused some bad days. Not any more, I don’t hesitate to cut them loose. I got hurt by NTNX a quarter ago, and if I had stuck by my old ways I’d have more now. Instead I’ve made all that money back and then some elsewhere.

There’s a lot of good common sense in that.




Can you give us non-subscribers a brief description of his newsletter? Does he provide summaries of companies or just in-depth analysis?

You have said you are not a technical guy, I’m not either. The difference is you have the results that I don’t! Is Bert writing accessible to the “pedestrian” investor?

Could you highlight just 2 or three things that you like most?

Thanks for all you do.


PS - any other Ticker Target subscribers feel free to jump in with your own opinions!

Jeb, Here’s a link to 428 of his articles on Seeking Alpha. That should hold you.

And we shouldn’t extend this thread. This is a Motley Fool board after all. Let’s call it quits.



Forgot the link :…