The longer the strait traffic is curtailed, the more this looks like the new normal. Economic activity shifts over time for any reason. If this continues, alternate market paths for fuel will be developed and proven.
alternative energy technology rollouts
alternative paths to market for conventional fuels
accelerated approvals for need based technologies (nuclear, etc.)
pressure to revise bureaucracy structures around power generation/transmission
I question his timeline, but directionally correct.
The 8/10/2026 New Yorker article, The Future, Made In China, mentions that Renmin University published “Thank You, Trump” for his efforts to hasten the twilight of an empire, undermine American alliances, civil service, scientific institutions, and democratic credibility.
This is definitely a Macro-Economic topic, affecting us all.
When it comes to predicting the future, this guy, as with so many currently running things, is seeing only darkness.
Dear Mr Secretary
1/5 of the world supply of Liquified Natural Gas also passes through the Strait of Hormuz. On the off chance that no one told you, you can’t run LNG and crude in the same pipeline. Ever. Not simultaneously, not sequentially, not ever. The pipeline being constructed is for crude only, and there is no second infrastructure being built for LNG.
Perhaps I should also point out that if you can close the Strait with a drone or two shot at a tanker ship, you can do the same.- and more easily - with a pipeline, which is multiples of miles long and harder to defend.
Perhaps, since the word “Treasury” is in your name and not “energy expert” you should stick to monetary things, like rescuing the Yen or something since that’s going so well.
It has become extremely obvious this administration is not saying these things because they are true. They are saying them to appease the Fox News Crowd that things are ok so that they can keep their base from understanding what the rest of us do. That’s it. They are lying to their base in a futile attempt to keep things from falling apart before elections kick them all out.
If the middle east no longer contributed anything to world fuel supplies, they would be supplied by others. The elevated pricing in markets today is greening up FID decisions everywhere not located around Saudi Arabia.
Some examples from Australia (AI support)
1. Near-Term “Brownfield” Extensions (2 to 4 Years)
The Process: These fields are located near operational liquefied natural gas (LNG) hubs. They do not require building new processing plants onshore. Instead, operators run underwater pipelines directly from the new subsea wells to existing platforms. [1, 2, 3]
Current Status: Projects in this category (like Santos’s Dorado field) are actively progressing toward final investment decisions (FID) slated for late 2027. [1]
2. Major “Greenfield” Mega-Projects (7 to 9 Years)
The Process: These are massive, untapped pools of gas located deep underwater that require completely new floating production infrastructure and massive capital injection. [1, 2]
The Primary Example: The mega-project benchmark is Woodside’s Browse Basin development, Australia’s largest untapped gas reserve. Due to extreme regulatory scrutiny over coral reef ecosystems (such as Scott Reef) and a mandatory $48.7 billion budget restructuring to integrate heavy carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, timelines have continually shifted. [1, 2, 3]
First Gas Target:2033 – 2035 (Optimistically slated by analysts to start initial operations by 2033). [1]
There are many other such development which will be brought on line if this situation continues. Economics and logic expects nothing else.
(Either that or some VERY significant developments in alternative energy developments)
Well, Macron can’t run next year, but he’s hinting at 2032.
At a rally of his party’s young members, Macron called on them to support him for the next 10 years. But he risks weakening his allies in the 2027 presidential election, in which he cannot run.
The people running the war forgot. At the G7 Summit Trump said that it was “common sense” that Iran be allowed to maintain a nuclear program, and keep some ballistic missiles: "They have to have some because other people have some. Missiles aren’t the problem, they hurt a little…but they don’t blow up the planet.”
Indeed, missiles and drones were excluded from the MOU and there were no provisions for monitoring Iran’s nuclear program. And remember, Trump personally signed the MOU. This is the deal he was satisfied with. Nukes are okay, missiles are okay.
The pipeline was diverting around 7 million barrels per day (bpd) from the kingdom’s oil heartland in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu after Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, trapping huge volumes of oil and gas in the Gulf and sending prices skyrocketing.
Flows through the pipeline are expected to be affected, the source said, adding damage was being assessed. That could exacerbate what experts have called the world’s worst energy crisis.
That is an irrelevant question; the question is can they be hit and/or sabotaged? And the answer to that is ‘yes’! And they don’t move; easy pickings. Rail lines are the same; stationary and long.
I appreciate that the discussion continues to focus ONLY on the middle east. A lot of handwringing and discussion around a situation that assumes the rest of the world cannot/will not react to a timeline which is out of USA control.
The USA/Iranian actions have huge implications. We all agree.
The US/Iranian resolution (if/when) timing becomes less and less relevant the LONGER this goes on.
My example about Australia is but one of MANY alternatives which make the gulf irrelevant.
If you want to keep this political, please proceed. If you want to explore Macroeconomic implications, consider modeling growth from:
Continued short term pricing at elevated levels
Supply glut cycle from other world areas:
Central Africa
Venezuela
Australia
South East Asian countries
USA
Well, to address your world view, I don’t think any of the regions mentioned make the gulf irrelevant. Certainly over enough time the economic picture will clear up and alternatives may replace much of the gulfs oil/gas. However, I’m old and don’t have much time; so I’m not interested in waiting or investing for 50 years from now. Looking at the situation and saying “oh well, the gulf is unimportant and others will take on the role of energy provider eventually” seems to be an odd view if you are interested in investing or the economy or sanity!