In March of 2000, Cisco rose to become the highest valued company in the world (by market capitalization). Over the years, their product, and product line, rapidly became commoditized, and the company shrunk in importance and size. I wonder if this is a general macro effect for almost everything? Become too successful, and your product is worth “copying” for a slightly lower margin, repeat this over a few years (and a few copies from competitors), and the product has essentially become a commodity.
Nvidia passes Microsoft in market cap to become most valuable public company
The same could perhaps apply to Apple. Android phones have finally reached a higher quality level than they had previously, and the Android software is much improved and less fragmented than it used to be. There could be tougher competition coming for Apple.
And the crux for Apple is seeing that cash stash and flow make it more an advanced product research corporation than a computer or phone or software or…manufacturer.
Automobile breakthrough, nope.
Immersion breakthrough, nope, (not so far).
What next?
That’s why Tesla stockholders believe Elon Musk has so much value. The number of CEOs with more than one big idea in a lifetime is pretty small.
It is fascinating how the Chinese seem to value Musk a lot more than Americans do. They seem to recognize that Musk has a talent they cannot easily replicate.
I wouldn’t count Google out just yet. Google’s search prints money from ads, and that covers up a lot of missteps. Google is number three in cloud, but pushing hard in that area (big potential upside) and has a big stake in AI, and of course controls the Android ecosystem. Waymo is doing robotaxi right now in some locations.
Amazon is still the cloud leader but CEO Jassy is trying to grow the company through selling ads rather than emphasizing growing the underlying enterprise. I used to start product searches on the Amazon site, but the it is too jammed up with ads to be pleasant anymore.
I don’t know if NVDA stock is priced well or not, but CEO Jensen Huang is the real deal. I would never, ever, bet against that guy.