Biotech.

Three points:

  1. Big pharma always defends their high prices by the cost of R&D, but then if you look closely you’ll often find that sales and marketing exceeds R&D spending - sort of undercuts their arguments when the real driver is the cost of advertising, selling, etc. is the primary cost driver.

  2. For mysterious reasons (to me anyway) US patent protection outlives patent protection almost everywhere else on the planet. They can continue to sell branded monopoly drugs in the US often for years after generics are available everywhere else on the planet. Why do these companies get patent extensions exclusively in the US long after the patents expire everywhere else?

  3. As for Chinese companies, this is from a Reuters report in the Global Times (Chinese paper printed in English) March, 2016: “Analysts blamed a lax regulatory system for creating a brisk market in listed shell companies that could be acquired via reverse takeovers, and also for inflating average P/E ratios in China, despite widespread public concerns that insider trading, dishonest accounting practices and market manipulation were endemic among listed Chinese companies.”

Everything printed in the Global Times is vetted by the censors in Beijing. So this indictment stands as a clear statement, endorsed by the Chinese government that in general accounting practices and other vehicles of market manipulation are rampant among Chinese listed companies. Proceed with caution, many risks are unknown and immeasurable. Don’t be overly confident of the numbers reported by Chinese companies (even those with ADRs in the US markets and US accounting firms as auditors). Even if the company reports in GAAP, you are at risk in terms of the way the GAAP figures have been arrived at internally.

BTW, my wife is Chinese, I spend about 25% of my time in China every year. I have many Chinese friends and family members. They all consider “investing” in the stock market akin to playing mahjong for money, some skill is involved, but winning is more a matter of luck than anything else. Why do they do it? Culturally, the Chinese love to gamble. They are strong believers in omens of luck (and bad luck). But no one I know has their life savings in the markets, most retail investors in China dabble with a small amount of “pin” money. Their life savings are either in a jar hidden at home, or increasingly in interest earning savings accounts at one of the major national banks.

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