A while back Jim opined that historically one might do well buying Bitcoin after it falls 75% from its most recent high. That recent intra-day high was 11/9/21 at $68,789.63.
This morning Bitcoin is trading at ~$18964, which is 72.4% off the November high. 75% off is $17,197.
Maybe wade in a little with play money?
Tails
Actually I suggested an 80% drop.
But if you were willing to do it at -80%, you’d probably be willing to do it at -75%.
(never owned any, and not going to, but it can be a good spectator sport)
Here’s another one for you:
Gold famously holds its value surprisingly well over extremely long time frames.
A corollary is that it’s not worth any more than it ever was: mean reversion should be the baseline expectation.
In today’s money, the average price since 1969 has been around $1050.
In the last 25 years, about $1215.
So if you wanted to own gold for some reason, buy at a level below those or expect to lose buying power.
If you want to be more active, the 99 day rule isn’t so bad, calculated on the real gold price.
Bullish CAGR since 1969 inflation plus 7.1%, bearish inflation minus -2.0%.
It has been bullish 60% of the time. 1.45 signals per year.
Jim