Many are realizing in NYC and elsewhere the retail is not coming back, as much as expected, even after 2 years of COVID. I think pandemic is changing consumer, workforce behavior. These changes are not transient some are permanent. Expect commercial mortgage, office space to experience elevated challenges for few more years, until the equilibrium is achieved, a la mall space.
https://commercialobserver.com/2022/03/blackstone-1740-broad…
Cautious investing to all.
There is a lot of weird stuff going on in our economy. Things not seen here in my lifetime.
Got back from a Boy Scout backpacking trip to the Grand Canyon, late Saturday. I have previously organized two similar trips in the last five years. Difference now? You cannot get a lot of stuff. Things that I bought at Wal-Mart in 2019 & 2017, were not available. Sometimes they were available online, but not always. I bought items on Amazon that showed delivered, but never arrived.
Coming back Saturday night we stopped to eat and get gas at El Reno, OK. Exited the Interstate before 8 PM and found only one of three gas stations open. Half of the quick service restaurants had only the drive throughs open. Why? Labor shortages we were told. Also you cannot order from the drive through at a McDonalds in El Reno, OK as a pedestrian. Some of us tried. Figure the labor shortage probably contributed to the closed gas stations as well and one of them was a Murphy USA in front of a Wal-Mart.
Also, Amazon never arrived here in the prescribed time. When it was two day delivery it took 3-4 business days and when it went to one day delivery, it normally took two days. Now, 6-14 days when in stock.
Also, Amazon never arrived here in the prescribed time. When it was two day delivery it took 3-4 business days and when it went to one day delivery, it normally took two days. Now, 6-14 days when in stock.
Now that is funny as in weird. I just ordered something from Amazon and received it delivered, 2 hours later. 2 hours, how fast is that? I live 30 minutes outside Las Vegas.
Andy
I live in western Arkansas in a county of 125,000 people. For the past 5-7 years most things shipped out of a Lenexa KS logistics center just over 300 miles away. Last year a new logistics center opened in Tulsa, OK about 150 miles away, but in that time delivery has gotten slower.
Home delivery is more labor intensive than the consumer going to the store. Local labor markets vary, but labor shortages do not favor the home delivery business and perhaps higher fuel prices don’t either.
I live in western Arkansas in a county of 125,000 people
It is impressive what Amazon has achieved. Customers across US, wherever they are located, want to go online and expect their products to be delivered. The options that are available to customers now, unlike in a local store which can carry only so much inventory, should be wonderful.
The supply chain, labor, delivery challenges will sort out. But these customers are not going back to stores.
Home delivery is more labor intensive than the consumer going to the store. Local labor markets vary, but labor shortages do not favor the home delivery business and perhaps higher fuel prices don’t either.
Your right Value but I was just amazed that they delivered something 2 hours after I ordered it. They have 2 warehouses within 75 miles of me.
Andy
“expect their products to be delivered.”
Until about 5 years ago, Amazon delivery was mostly impeccable. No longer. Seemed to start when they went to USPS for the “last mile” delivery in my area. Lots of things showed a status of delivered, but we did not receive. Until last year, we ultimately received everything ultimately, but then last year one item we never received and then two items (one FEDEX and one USPS) this year. Of the three, was only able to get a refund on one.
“The options that are available to customers now, unlike in a local store which can carry only so much inventory, should be wonderful.”
There can be a downside to Amazon’s carrying of almost everything - a lot of it is junk. I almost never buy a non-name brand product from Amazon anymore as so much of it is junk. The 3rd party vendors have definitely excaberated this. Even a couple of name brand items were probably counterfeit. No such problem taking items off the shelf at Home Depot or Walmart.
Things were generally better at other online vendors, until last year’s XMAS season when we had three purchases cancelled. Bought local. Even this week an order from “House of Antique Hardware” had shipping postponed to April 22nd. While the latest delivery issue is no big deal, the XMAS ones were major problems fixed by local bricks and mortar.
Amazon’s home delivery is subsidized by its AWS income and its annual Prime Membership fees. The later is kind of like an all you can eat place, those that either eat/order less or live close to its facilities are profitable, but those that live further and/or order more or less profitable.
As I finish this post, just heard on Bloomberg that an Amazon facility in NY has voted to go Union.
Hi Andy and Value!
We have one Amazon warehouse within about 10 miles of us in Southern California which probably explains why we have not experienced the delivery problems Value has experienced with Amazon.
All the stuff we have ordered gets to us on time or ahead of time. And we frequently receive emails from Amazon telling us an order will be delivered ahead of time.
Weird.
David
This labor shortage is hitting more and more businesses.
Just got a letter from Walgreens that they are closing the pharmacy in their store in my hometown of 10,000. Reason? Labor shortage.
Talked to some people who just got back from a road trip to Florida and they ran into multiple closed gas stations as well.
Talked to some people who just got back from a road trip to Florida and they ran into multiple closed gas stations as well.
I have been thinking a lot about that. I know where to get the people to fill the jobs but you need to let people immigrate to the United States that don’t have doctorate degrees to take them. Somebody that is educated doesn’t want them. (Not talking pharmacy jobs but gas station jobs, heavy labor jobs).
What I am watching is all the farm workers. If they get tired of picking vegetables, wouldn’t it be nice to work at McDonalds for 20 dollars an hour and in air conditioning. Than who is going to pick the vegetables?
Andy
Than who is going to pick the vegetables?
Unskilled labor is now portrayed as “stupid to morally, ethically wrong”. It is sad. Everyone should go to 4 year college, work in an air-conditioned office with all benefits, is a romantic notion. But when many believes it, it will find a way to make it happen.
Robots will do that job. More agriculture waste will be produced with one time use crop. Now we don’t pick tomatoes and let the plant to produce more, rather we pluck the plant and harvest the tomatoes and plant the next set of seeds. There is lot of waste. But sure there is no human labor, it is all done by machines.
Immigration is not the solution, because after one generation they also will aspire to move up in life. Automation, robotics is the solution.
Hi Kingran,
At the risk of dragging the thread off topic. Your post is interesting and has a number of the usual “complaints” that I have heard before.
College for everyone is bad. We need laborers, not office workers. Immigrants are not the solution because they will want to better themselves.
All of these statements are true taken independently, but it would be nice to hear solutions rather than just complaints. Do you (or did you) want your kids to grow up to be farm laborers? Do you think we should pay laborers much more and drive up food prices? Do you want people to not want to better themselves and their future generations?
Of course everyone can’t go to college, but it is probably the best path to a brighter future (not the only path so please don’t jump on that statement). Of course you can’t expect someone who is laboring in the fields every day to want to better themselves. Of course we should pay laborers more than they make now in some instances.
My point is the world is constantly changing and evolving. People are improving themselves or they are falling further behind, many times based on their own actions. But overall things are getting better. I live better than my parents, who live better than their parents. Many of the younger generation have changed focus to finding fulfilling work and experiencing life instead of getting the highest paid job with a company out of college and working their until retirement with a pension (me). What path is better? I don’t know.
I heard complaints. What are your solutions?
Respectfully
Randy
College for everyone is bad. We need laborers, not office workers. Immigrants are not the solution because they will want to better themselves.
All of these statements are true taken independently, but it would be nice to hear solutions rather than just complaints…
I heard complaints. What are your solutions
I guess you were too busy reading “complaints”, that is not my intent. I even wonder whether you took time to read fully or try to understand what I was trying to say.
I didn’t complain about anyone having greater aspirations, rather I complained about “portraying not having 4 year college degrees as bad”. Big difference. Whether you are writing “software code”, “packaging meat”, “picking vegetables” all are labor. I celebrate that, honest labor is not something to be ashamed of, is my point.
Please don’t try to politicize.
BTW, if you had fully read, including the last sentence, where I said, “Automation, robotics is the solution”
PS: I am not interested in any more back and forth on this. This board stays clear of politics, and let us keep it that way.
Sorry you took it that way. No politics at all.
And I felt I did read it. I agree with you about not looking down on labor. Any job is rewarding. Labor jobs are very worthwhile they are just tough to continue to do as you get older.
I also saw the robotics comment but wasn’t sure if you were replacing the office worker or the laborer. If the laborer Is replaced, it leads you to more college, if the office worker, it doesn’t solve the wage and career question for laborers.
Anyway, I thought your questions were good ones, I just didn’t see any answers. As for politics, I think you would guess mine incorrectly.
Again, didn’t mean to offend, was looking for positive thoughts and solutions. But as I started my first post, it probably was off topic so we can end it.
Randy
PS: growing up, my dad always said you can work with your muscles or your mind, both are worthwhile but as you age, the mind path becomes much more appealing. I believe he was right and it was the path I chose.
Talked to some people who just got back from a road trip to Florida and they ran into multiple closed gas stations as well.
I don’t disagree Kingran but we have to get there to have that happen, and when it does all those farms will be corporate farms.
Andy
PS: growing up, my dad always said you can work with your muscles or your mind, both are worthwhile but as you age, the mind path becomes much more appealing.
As do I, but as I age, I find both muscle and mind start to let me down, so ‘smoke’m while you got’m’.
Hey h2k,
I totally agree. Moderation in all things. The best of the world is never black or white, it is always the grey space in the middle!
Randy
“Now we don’t pick tomatoes and let the plant to produce more, rather we pluck the plant and harvest the tomatoes and plant the next set of seeds”
Those plants are most likely determinate tomato plants that produce all their fruit in a short time frame, normally less than two weeks. The plants are not indeterminate tomato plants which keep producing for months.