BLS: can government statistics be trusted anymore?

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs-inflation-trump-mcentarfer-3c601ac4?mod=hp_lead_pos8

Inflation Up or Down? What About Jobs? The Agency That Should Know Is on the Rocks

Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics leader compounds a yearslong struggle to modernize methods and maintain resources

By Matt Grossman, Brian Schwartz and Rachel Louise Ensign, The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 10, 2025

Erika McEntarfer, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was fired by President Trump on August 1…. The president wrote on social media that the agency’s numbers had been rigged for years and people there were out to damage him politically….

Trump offered no concrete evidence the BLS had manipulated the jobs numbers, either by mistake or design. The agency performs one of the government’s least political tasks: collecting data and compiling statistics. The president and his aides said in interviews that the proof of wrongdoing was the significant change from previous jobs reports.

Economists defended McEntarfer and said that revisions, even large ones, are evidence of the system’s integrity….

Dozens of well-known economists sent a letter to Congress on July 29, warning that the government’s statistics system was approaching a breaking point. They said the responsible agencies needed a budget that supports new data techniques in parallel with current practices….

The response rate for the monthly survey used for unemployment statistics has dropped below 70% from nearly 90% a decade ago…

The resource squeeze has been under way for more than a decade. In inflation-adjusted terms, the agency’s spending power—based on annual budgets of around $650 million—fell by about a fifth over the past 15 years…For the coming fiscal year, the Trump administration asked Congress to reduce the BLS budget by about 10%… [end quote]

  1. The statistics from the BLS are critically important to everyone from kids with I-Series savings bonds to the Federal Reserve. The stock and bond markets watch the employment and inflation data keenly to make investment decisions.
  2. The BLS needs to modernize but is struggling to maintain its reliability even in the situation of lower resources and less cooperation from the public (such as employers who submit employment data).
  3. The BLS is under intense political attack from the President who will shoot the messenger if he sees data he doesn’t like, such as lower employment or higher inflation. Nobody knows how reliable BLS statistics will be in the future.

The CPI will be reported tomorrow. No matter what it is someone will complain that it’s not accurate.

This situation is bound to destabilize the markets.

Fortunately, the new Acting Commissioner of the BLS seems like an experienced, competent bureaucrat, not some idiot anti-vaxxer like so many Trump appointees. I’m crossing my fingers and hoping that he will be left to do the right thing, not replaced with a political appointee who hates the BLS.

Wendy

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Corporate “JCs” have been cooking their books for years. Years ago, I held Compaq Computer (CPQ) I noticed that, right after Christmas, the CFO sold every share he had. I called the human broker I had back then, and told him to sell. Mike said something along the lines of “they’ve been doing really well lately”. I said words to the effect “if the CFO doesn’t want that stock, neither do I”. So, Mike sold the Compaq. A week or two later, Compaq issued an earnings warning. They had, again, stuffed the distribution channel to fluff up their Q4 earnings. After Christmas, the surplus inventory was being returned to them, and their revenues were going “poof”.

So, why would anyone expect a “JC” POTUS to behave any differently than a “JC” in the private sector?

Steve

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Good story. Mine is my human broker who tried to talk me out of buying this stupid little company called “AOL” in 1995, and after buying lots more and suffering through 6 or 7 splits and runups, tried to talk me out of selling it all in 1999. Heh.

Same guy.

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Oops plus twenty oopsies:

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Welp, you crossing your fingers didn’t work. Thanks for trying!

If you would like a glimpse into the new dude - enjoy.

Here’s a recent post on X -

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I suppose the silver lining is that he’ll be leading the BLS and not the Fed.

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OK, I’m putting hard cash on 3 billion jobs created in the August jobs report.

Any takers?

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Why waste the time and energy to fabricate numbers? If I was a morally deranged lunatic, I would just say - “TFG’s economy is doing so well that it’s broken all the previous metrics. We can no longer measure what’s happening because we’re off the charts!”

Problem solved.

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https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-to-nominate-longtime-critic-to-lead-bureau-of-labor-statistics-190e7252?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Trump to Nominate Bureau of Labor Statistics Critic to Lead Agency

E.J. Antoni is chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation and has long criticized the agency’s approach to collecting jobs data

By Meridith McGraw, The Wall Street Journal, 8/11/2025

President Trump said on Monday that he plans to nominate E.J. Antoni, the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Antoni, a longtime critic of the agency’s handling of jobs data, had the support of conservatives like former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. The position requires Senate confirmation….

He was previously an economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation and contributed to Project 2025, the conservative policy initiative for Trump’s second term….. [end quote]

Since he has the support of Steve Bannon, I feel much more relaxed and reassured. [choke, gag]

Wendy

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How do you pick an economist?

You pick the one whose view supports the agenda you already decided on.

Steve

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Marshall law in DC is not a job incentive

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BREAKING NEWS

All future economic reports will be rendered in black Sharpie, to ensure they are infallible.

Steve

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Years, maybe decades, ago, you said I could “out dark” anyone you had ever met. Have I been wrong about the trajectory the country has been on?

Steve

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@steve203 I fear you have been right but still hope you are wrong.

Wendy

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The country coming to grips with a great depression will wake everyone up.

Right now the maroons can see the stupidity

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If that isn’t politics what is it? After hours comedy?

Quite the usual procedure.

The Captain

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I medium agree. But…I don’t remember a time when so many stunningly unqualified people filled important positions, do you?

Here’s what some conservatives are saying about Antoni -

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bls-nominee-made-claim-that-no-sensible-economist-would-use-and-thats-one-of-the-kinder-comments-789b91e5

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They clearly don’t have experience with the sort of “JC” who is in charge now.

Tony and David are the sort of mindless brownnosers required now.

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Steve

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If that was the only thing to worry about… The Fed’s ability to manage inflation while maintaining employment might get a little bit more difficult.

I suppose if you only want to cut rates down to 0-1%, you might not want to know the impact on employment.

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But usually with a very heavy dose of competence in the job at-hand. You do realize that this is not what is happening now, right? Quit pretending all this has been done before.

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Every day is another reason to lose faith in domestic economic indicators and, as a result, domestic equities.

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