In 2023, BRK went up 17.9%. S&P went up 28.1%.
In 2022, BRK went up 4% while S&P went down 18%
BRK Year end PBV was 1.49.
Buffett is now 93 years old. Charlie Munger passed away (RIP)
In a 15 year comparison test, S&P outperformed BRK handily (636% vs 480%)
DON’T LISTEN TO THE PREDICTORS OF DOOM AND GLOOM. These guys always sell fear masked as “look at the high PE”.
There is a category of perma-bears who appear smart but have limited understanding of productivity booms brought about by technologies like internet and smart phones. The next decade, we will see ML, AI and AGI provide another long drawn productivity boost and spread prosperity. Humanity will innovate and solve global challenges of health, energy, education, shelter and food.
Oh it was always reasonable… I remember some of the reasonable arguments like “debt doesn’t count”, “cash on balance sheet doesn’t count”, “a sales leaseback transaction is a fraud”, yada, yada…
These gloomers were wearing CAPE and arguing why the market has to go down from 2008… and still arguing.
It is EASY to sell “fear”. Old people are especially gullible and have lost decades of compounding.
Bears pick a story to sell FEAR and people listen: High PE, Money printing, Unsustainable debt, High PS, Terrorism, Pandemic, Wars, Oil Shock, Inflation, Deflation, Disinflation, Brexit, Grexit, China bubble
Perma bears have been doing this for last few decades. “This time is different they say”.
Meanwhile, Entrepreneurs will innovate and solve global challenges of health, energy, education, shelter and food and generate prosperity.
Is this a discussion about what we’d be more comfortable owning at current prices: Berkshire or the S&P?
Not sure why you go on a discussion board and tell people over and over that they should buy something else. Do you go to McDonald’s every day and tell people they’d be happier at Burger King? Do you go on any other individual stock discussion boards and tell everyone there to buy something else? If not, why not?
I don’t think you made any argument either. The “so called value” guys arguing whenever they trail the market, " the market is expensive" is as old as time.
price def valid measure, but sometimes things are expensive and sometimes not
other than changing multiples, long run return returns for anything are rise in real profits/year plus div yield. and long run profits can’t rise faster than sales do. so brk prob not quite dead yet, interesting pic linked here Post #5151 by mungofitch on the Berkshire Hathaway board
Not at all. I believe that’s the reason divi posts 1,2,5,10,20… etc. So individual year noise is eliminated from looking at performance over longer duration. But arguing forever market is bubbly doesn’t cut it.
This is not true. For software companies the first 10, 15 years they simply get big and then the next 10, 15 years they drive margins, the profit growth far outstrips the sales growth. Investments involve lot of nuances, when someone says it is a simple formula, question it. If it is simple formula everyone can be WEB.
These are utterly useless points. You are arguing for the sake of arguing and making points that has no relevance. If you need to “WIN” the argument and feel great about your “investment guru” please do so. That doesn’t change any outcome, but if it makes you feel happy, good.
Right. Before too long, the entire S&P 500 will be software companies with 110% net margins, justifying any price one might imagine.
If the S&P 500 is such a grand bargain, what’s the point in coming to the Berkshire board, telling us what dummies we are to own it? If the mantra is dollar cost average, sleep well, and enjoy life with the S&P, then go ahead and do that.
That’s funny. Divi always claims such. And never did answer when I publicly two times on the old board offered him a bet on longbets.org (“The Arena for Public Predictions”).
I wonder what does that say about his conviction in his own prediction?
To be fair, the lack of a bet doesn’t necessarily say anything about one’s conviction of an assertion, it could instead be saying something about their attitude towards betting.
Also, all of us with savings and investments make our “bets” all the time in real life. That’s where the real conviction shows.
