Bubble?

In hindsight clearly the market was in a bubble.

The market was only in a bubble because China is still doing zero-Covid and screwing up the supply chain, Putin invaded Ukraine causing an energy crisis, and the Fed believes inflation is the top priority and so is making money expensive. Valuation metrics like p/e seem bloated because earnings during the pandemic declined while there were optimistic expectations of a resurgence in revenues post-pandemic.

This seems to be a recession driven by external events rather than weaknesses in the market, which means that I think the downturn in stock prices may be less than everyone seems to be predicting. This is also suggested by the fact that everyone seems to be predicting a huge crash, contrarian that I am. I am slowly dollar cost averaging into companies with lots of cash/positive cash flow. Very likely that companies like Amazon/Google/Berkshire/Apple will come out of a recession stronger than their competition.

One big wildcard is China. I think China does have structural weaknesses in its economy, which may put at great risk US companies who staked much future income on the Chinese market.

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