Buffett Will/Future Berkshire

I know there’s speculation recently about Warren’s estate—yes, perhaps the Gates Foundation may get somewhat less and his family charities somewhat more than anticipated.

But the question I have is about the surprising revelation Warren wants the entire amount of his estate SPENT within 10 years! That’s a major change in what we all sort of expected: that foundations would spend X percent/year in perpetuity. And perhaps a dividend issuance would coincide perfectly then with charitable funding needs. 3% divi plus 2 % cash—voila charity annual needs funded.

If my math is right, I believe this plan would put, what, 3 to 4 times as much stock for sale annually relative to what Buffett is donating each year now? And the $3 Billion + given now while alive doesn’t need to be sold right away.

This is quite a big surprise. If there’s no change in ownership/capital structure and beneficiary charities have to liquidate that much stock for a decade—I think that would be a depressant for market valuation. Long term.

Thinking out loud: does this increase chance Berkshire could be broken up in pieces via large cash transactions? That would directly put CASH in hands of the charities? I assume Buffett’s $19 or whatever A share tax basis gets stepped up to market value? Surely no one is going to write, in todays terms, an $800 Billion check for Berkshire in entirely. That’s never happening.

Is Berkshire—operating as present in future, while selling off all of Warren’s shares in a decade, really likely? Maybe. Maybe I’m overestimating the impact. That 10 year term is curious. Ironically, perhaps not coincidentally, kinda self imposed IRA inheritance rules exactly like the rest of us now have.

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Maybe I’m overestimating the impact.

Perhaps : )

Consider:

Imagine that 10-pound bags of genuine US $100 bills are for sale all day every day.
Some people doubt the measurement accuracy, so there are always a few high and low bids. Opinions vary but have a central tendency.
Most bids are in the vicinity of $4600, give or take, depending on whether people use the figure of 0.987 grams per bill.

Now:
If 20% more such bags are for sale next week, will the average bids for each bag be much different?
If you think so, why?

My answer would be “maybe a hair lower, but not so much that you’d ever notice.”

Supply and demand is the only thing that determines the market value of capital goods, for sure.
More supply or less demand, the price will likely be lower. Gold, diamonds, pickled sharks.

But the price of investments–things that can generate a return–is determined primarily by the greed of the population who might consider bidding today.
Supply and demand matters in any given 1-minute interval but not hugely for longer intervals. Except down in the rounding error.
The reason is simple: There is an essentially bottomless pool of greedy people most of the time.
In any one minute interval it’s possible for either supply or demand to swamp the other…anything can happen.
But over longer time frames word gets out that there’s free money to be had on one side or the other.
Economists aren’t right about everything, but they’re usually right that free lunches don’t tend to last long.
During market turmoil the 1 minute notion might stretch to a day or a week, a month, longer occasionally.
But supply and demand will come back to some vague sense of normality when the greed kicks in and the word gets out.
Those deadly sins are remarkably reliable.

Jim

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I don’t know what Buffett’s thinking about distributions after the Gates marriage breakup.

But I’m pretty sure he has thought about it with better info than I have. And that he’s thought about it with shareholders in mind.

He’s got his foibles. Maybe he will shift more to his first wife’s foundation. If so, he’s earned that right. If that’s more liberal than some might wish, so be it.

I’m not going to lose any sleep about it. Not a damn thing I can do to influence it.

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Hi Tex,
I agree 100%. Don’t care what Buffett does and who he gives it to and certain he’s given lots of thought to it.

Do find it interesting that whoever gets it has to sell it…all…within 10 years. Probably a non issue as generously explained here. When we had kicked this idea around decades ago, I’d assumed Buffett’s shares would be retained by charity, a dividend would be issued, and the stock would generate annuity returns in perpetuity for the charities. Like the other big foundations. But Buffett wants his money to go to work for charity sooner rather than later. That’s admirable.
Hope all is well, my friend.

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Hope all is well, my friend.

We’re doing fine. Wife healthy. Oldest Granddaughter just graduated from William & Mary and has a good job - 15 minutes from our home. Youngest in pre-med at TCU and doing good.

To quote Willie Nelson:

"It’s been rough and rocky traveling, but I’m still standing upright on the ground.

And, after taking several readings, I’m surprised to find my mind’s still fairly sound."

Miss you guys. Those were good times.

Tex

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<<We’re doing fine. Wife healthy. Oldest Granddaughter just graduated from William & Mary and has a good job - 15 minutes from our home. Youngest in pre-med at TCU and doing good. >>>

Great to hear…wow, you should be proud! Our only child, born a few blocks from Warren’s home when we lived in Omaha, just got married 2 days ago up here in New England…BU MBA working at Fidelity corporate. My wife is also healthy. I miss you, the late Robsny, Neuroberk so much. Life is short. I hope folks here appreciate the wisdom you so generously share. Apologies for using the board to communicate personal stuff. But it’s really special when on-line buddies become great friends. I miss the wisdom and civility of the old board.

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When Buffett sells more shares, more free float is available, which means more shares will be bought and subsequently owned by the index. That means there’s not only initial share demand from the index weight change, but also affect the long term price of Brk to trade closer to the index’s PE. There have been academic studies that demonstrate the existence of “liquidity premium”. The more liquid stocks trade at higher premiums.

The selling pressure from Buffett? I won’t worry too much about it. He’s not selling all at once. The stock purchases will likely more than offset that on a % of daily volume.

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this is refreshing to hear… Good tidings Tex…

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I’m not going to lose any sleep about it. Not a damn thing I can do to influence it.

That sounds like something Charlie Munger says at the AGM. Are you Charlie posting under a texirish pseudonym to confuse us all?

Whoever you are keep on posting. I enjoy reading them.

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Are you Charlie posting under a texirish pseudonym to confuse us all?

Not Charlie, but a long term admirer. And, perhaps, share a few personality aspects.

While I may have your attention, there is a man I’ve come to admire even more than Charlie. (And I choose Charlie over Buffett although both are great. I just get straighter answers from Charlie. And his strategic thinking has had a huge impact on Buffett and BRK.)

The man is named Andrew Marshall and his contributions to the USA are chronicled in the book The Last Warrior - available on Amazon. Called the most influential man no one ever heard of. Same intelligence level as Charlie, and probably more widely self-educated in multiple viewpoints than even Charlie. Served for six plus decades as a strategic thinker in how to defend the US against nuclear war. Perhaps a higher calling than making money.

Three “attention getters”. Was admitted to the University of Chicago directly into their graduate program with only under two years of undergraduate in minor universities based on testing. Excelled. Prior to that, worked as a machinist during WWII due to heart problem.

Started with the RAND corporation. Later called to the Pentagon. Understood early on that the CIA was overstating the size of the USSR economy and understating the amount they were spending on defense. Was not sustainable. Developed the data to correct the CIA. Proposed strategies that would force USSR to counter with even higher expenditures - a major factor in theot ultimate collapse.

Also forecast in 1995 - and even earlier - that China would be the primary opponent in the future, not terrorism or Russia. Was alerted to changes in Revolutions in Military Affairs concepts from the USSR and got them ultimately recognized by the US military. Anticipated that precision weapons would ultimately favor the organizations with superior information. What we see today. If you can see them, you can hit them. A lesson perhaps the Chinese paid more attention to than the US.

Retired at 93 and passed away a couple of years later. Friends report he was still being consulted a week before his death.

Here ends my pitch to readers interested in this man.

Aside as a comment, I wish I had had access to his thoughts during my working years. I learned a great deal from his experiences. Perhaps his greatest contributions were to (1) be sure you define the problems correctly - let the executives deal with solutions, and (2) the people he trained and developed. Hope they’re still around contributing.

We need leaders who are willing to listen and learn. And farsighted people to advise them well.

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That sounds like something Charlie Munger says at the AGM. Are you Charlie posting under a texirish pseudonym to confuse us all?

Hahaha.

If it is, then Charlie’s been posting to this board since before the days of the fool.com message board*.

Texirish was posting back in the mid-90’s in the old AOL MF message boards, the ones that would fill up and then AOL would have to open up a fresh one.

Wheezy

*And he probably doesn’t remember me, but on the annual meeting weekend in 2000, we road in a car together with JBenvent and someone I don’t remember from the hotel to an event (Borsheim’s? Drinks at the restaurant John Houbolt was telling stories at? Somewhere else WEB was appearing?)

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And he probably doesn’t remember me, but on the annual meeting weekend in 2000, we road in a car together with JBenvent and someone I don’t remember from the hotel to an event (Borsheim’s? Drinks at the restaurant John Houbolt was telling stories at? Somewhere else WEB was appearing?)

Wheezy,

I remember many great encounters with the old AOL group folks. But I was bad at remembering names before that. And it hasn’t gotten any better as I roll through my 9th decade. It had to be in my CPO LS400 at the time. I started driving the 700 miles to Omaha rather than flying because it gave me a lot of options about timing. Easy to get around, could share rides with friends, and my schedule wasn’t set by the airlines. It wasn’t unusual to encounter tornadoes goint to and from - the spring season - so it became one of the factors in staying home and reading meeting transcripts. Some close calls - but that’s another story line. Another factor was when Omaha began charging Mardi Gras in New Orleans prices. Wasn’t delivering much new except for meeting old friends and making new ones.

I still keep in occasional touch with JBenvent. We mostly talk about parenting, exchanging family stories. His son is now attending a great Ivy college last I heard.

I met John Houbolt at one of the private dinners I used to organize to escape the crowds at the “known” Buffett places. Gave us time to mix and visit. I first knew his wife Mary - a remarkable women - when she was very nice to our daughter who accompanied me to the 1998 meeting. It was the Yellow BRK’ers gathering at Todes IIRC.

So she and John came to our dinner and I fortunately set next to him. On the other side was Charlie Page (Pagewrite) who was always a life of the party. He asked John what he did for a living, and John replied calmly “I send men to the moon.” John used to share good stuff on BRK, I still have one of his spreadsheets.

Mary and I became great e-mail friends, and that continued until her recent death. John, Charlie, and Mary are all gone now. I had to abandon organizing our “private” dinner later on, but some friends (BRKFarmer - Lyle was one) filled in for a while. It is now a casualty of the pandemic - and attendance had already fallen off as the BRK meetings became more repetitive and fewer of the old group started attending.

Lyle knew Debbie back then, and now. She passed along a request to him from WEB asking how to improve the meeting. Lyle, being busy, kicked it to me, and I polled a group of the old AOL board members. The suggestions were pretty unanimous - too much time being wasted on too many repetitive questions in the Q&A. Suggested asking for questions ahead of the meetings, have them screened and asked by good media folks, and have more of them and less of the audience Q&A’s. Didn’t see anything for a while, but later saw the meetings improve. I think what our group probably offered - it wasn’t rocket science - was pretty obvious. But we may have added weight to the suggestions.

Someone recently mentioned Robsny - Bob Snyder. I came across a number of his e-mails that I had printed out last week - mostly about float. He was my mentor in that area. Passed way too soon. Remarkable man.

WEB’s early strategy of not splitting the BRK.A shares self selected a remarkable group of people at those earlier meetings. I am fortunate to have gotten to know a number of you guys. Has impacted my life.

No knock intended on the newer BRK shareholders - we’re all partners. It was perhaps just a different mix back then. Easier access to long time shareholders.

Tex

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Grahdodd, Tex,

Thanks for the memories. You may not remember me, but I remember you, Tex, and probably Grahdodd, if i saw you. Stayed many times in Omaha and attended some Yellow Brk dinners with you and Lyle, Charlie Page and his son, Mary, Idaho (sorry I only remember their handles from the board), Lynne, many many many more. Pabrai. Went on the Sees tour here in L.A. and to Lyle’s farm in Omaha (?).

I learned so much, then. A total neophyte. Lucky to watch the internet bubble from the sidelines. Lucky enough to have met Buffett–and witnessed guests in his own living room bemoaning the fact that Warren wasn’t buying tech!

Lots of education. Munger’s yearly booklists, Robert Miles’ 101 Reasons to Own Berkshire. Books by Hagstrom, Alice Schoeder, Charlie’s Almanack, so much was happening on the AOL board. Warren and Charlie were often giving interviews on MSNBC and talks to various colleges that we were watching and sharing with each other on that board. The internet was still kind of new, then.

There are some new lights here that weren’t around in 1999. And that’s all good. Grateful for that. Berkshire can’t help but attract that.

A funny aside, a couple of folks actually thought I might have been Charlie (!), once or twice, and wanted to meet me. Just channeling Charlie–but I was so much smarter then, I’m dumber than that now.

and–that’s what really frosts my lily! :wink:

alizax

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…I remember many great encounters with the old AOL group folks…

…I still keep in occasional touch with JBenvent. We mostly talk about parenting, exchanging family stories. His son is now attending a great Ivy college last I heard…

I met John Houbolt at one of the private dinners I used to organize to escape the crowds at the “known” Buffett places…He asked John what he did for a living, and John replied calmly “I send men to the moon.” John used to share good stuff on BRK, I still have one of his spreadsheets…

…WEB’s early strategy of not splitting the BRK.A shares self selected a remarkable group of people at those earlier meetings. I am fortunate to have gotten to know a number of you guys. Has impacted my life…

Tex:

Good to hear from you. I lost track of JBenvent…he and I were fairly close in age and really connected well and spent some time together the weekend in 2000. I’m pretty sure I sat with him and Rick Rockwood (sp?) at the meeting and went to a dinner that night and sat with him and Whitney Tilson, who was then just starting out in the business. It was a truly memorable weekend, including John and I sitting in a bar for two hours drinking and talking with Peter Buffett (where Peter somehow got into a discussion with our server about the morality of music file sharing), Suzie Buffet and the very first “Wallet Guy.” You are right, all of those people were fun, interesting people.

One of the most amazing couple hours of my life was sitting there at Tode’s in a booth with John Houboldt listening to him. The part where he recalled Werner Von Braun looking over at him and saying, “John, you were right” was an amazing moment. For anyone not familiar with him, here is a NASA article about him.

He basically figured out how to get to the moon.

https://www.nasa.gov/langley/hall-of-honor/john-c-houbolt

Wheezy (Mark)

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Texirish,

Thanks for your thoughts on the Andrew Marshall book. I just ordered a hardcopy for myself, and looking forward to passing it on to my sons once I’ve read it…

DER

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