CALL

Hi All,

A friend of mine has 8 years of user experience with MagicJack. He is not an investor but he loves the product. When I sent him a recent article about MagicJack written by Whitney Tillson, the successful fund manager, all of Tillson’s points began to ring bells in my friend’s brain. He got very excited.

Due to the enthusiastic, experiential based recommendation I received from my friend, I decided to pass along the impressive article written by Whitney Tillson. Maybe there’s a gem here:

http://www.valueinvestingletter.com/pdfs/MagicJack-My-Next-N…

Today, CALL kicked butt at an earnings announcement (up 20% in one day), mauling analysts expectations and providing very optimistic forward guidance. I haven’t taken a position in this as I want to check out the new management team, though Whitney seems to be sold on them as you’ll see in the article.

Let me know what you think.
PS no debt, cash in the bank, high margin, tremendous sales and margin growth, etc

Hope this has some legs but let us see…
Mykie

5 Likes

Mykie,

Thank you for sharing that report and for contributing to this discussion.

The share price, p/e (8-9x TTM) and market cap (<$400m) all seem very attractive. Revenue growth seems to have stagnated/dropped a bit in 2013 vs, 2012, so am interested in better understanding this. I am also concerned about a market shift out of home phones to cell phones. Most importantly, I am a bit concerned investing in a company that is pursuing a market moving away from its method of delivery.

Mr. Tillson noted that risk, but seemed OK with it given his belief that the market was still enormous even in the face of that trend.

So my concern is this: How can this business be the next Netflix if it is pursuing a market that is increasingly trending away from its products?

Great discussion.

–Vic

2 Likes

Hi Vic,

“So my concern is this: How can this business be the next Netflix if it is pursuing a market that is increasingly trending away from its products?”

Thanks for your comments as they were enlightening.

I’ll pursue this further and see if I can counter with something that makes as much sense as your comment made.
Mike

I’d like to thank Rizzz and Mykie who brought CALL to my attention. I went ahead and bought a small position (about a third of a full position) last week. I have more work to do on understanding the company though.

Saul

1 Like

Saul,
Thanks for the nod on CALL.

I feel a lot better now that I have contributed something and I hope I can be a regular contributor.

Speaking of which someone on this board, I can’t remember who, mentioned he was checking out IPGP. I looked at its CAP rating and it gets lots of 5 stars. I just read a nice write up by MDP and so manana, I’m going to pick up a starter position. I don’t know who to thank for turning me on to IPGP but I’ll just thank Saul since it is his blog where I ran into it. Will the real recommender step forward? :slight_smile:

mykie

2 Likes

I know very little about the company and statistically I think betting against Saul is clearly a losing proposition but I noticed the short interest on call appears to be above 35%. Is this a concern to others?

Dr. D

Dr D.

Please note that I wrote I … bought a small position (about a third of a full position) last week. I have more work to do on understanding the company though. That doesn’t sound like I’m betting the farm on it. I thought the article by the hedge fund manager that Mykie referenced was very convincing though.

Saul

short interest on call appears to be above 35%. Is this a concern to others

Rocket Fuel

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-18/facebook-whatsapp-d…

Thanks Rizz, An excellent Bloomberg article on a different aspect of CALL’s prospects.

Saul

Thanks Rizz,

I like that…rocket fuel!
Mykie
PS we are going to listen in on the next conference call for CALL to make sure Whitney’s take on management is the same as ours with our tough standards, set by MF.

Will report back then. Seems we are safe for a while, si?

Thanks Rizz,

I like that…rocket fuel!
Mykie
PS we are going to listen in on the next conference call for CALL to make sure Whitney’s take on management is the same as ours with our tough standards, set by MF.

Will report back then. Seems we are safe for a while, si?

Actually u can read the transcript from the most recent call here; it was only 10 days ago.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2085203-magicjack-vocaltecs-…

Actually u can read the transcript from the most recent call here; it was only 10 days ago.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2085203-magicjack-vocaltecs-…

OK, Rizz,
I read it and by the way this was my first read of an earnings report. By page 8 I was a bit bleary eyed and missed some info but I hope it wasn’t critical.

Overall, incredible management team. Their expertise generates confidence. I haven’t lost sight of the fact that they are churning out their monthly paying customers and replacing them with free customers as part of their marketing plan and their free cash flow dropped 50% YOY (though they still have plenty of cash) so all hinges on first expanding their customer base and then selling up while losing device sales as well as a damaged retailer, RadioShack, their largest distribution point. I mean it’s a good plan but let’s see if it works. And if it doesn’t work, I don’t think it will be from bad execution, but rather a tough plan to implement in the first place…we’ll see. (I would have liked to have heard what their prediction for reduced churn numbers were and predictions for monetization of the lost leader mobile app so those could be watched more closely.)

Whitney Tillson is one sharp character and hearing him ask the right and hard questions also gave me more confidence. Next time I’d like to hear management’s responses in their own voices to see how they reacted to his pressing and hard questions.

I think they do have a risk here (as does every small company) but they have planned their effort well, I already know they are executing it well (at least the service part), from my friends’ excellent experience of the progress he’s seen in just the last year.

So I’m glad I bought in and next time, I’ll read the earnings transcript FIRST and then buy in later.

I’m glad there’s a short effort going on now since right after I bought in, the price went down. So now, after reading it, I just want to find the end of the falling knife and then pick up a few more shares.

I liked the fact that the management team was transparent, laying out there what was critical to watch to see if the plan was on schedule. Here is that critical item to watch, per the CEO: “Yes, look we put activations out there, company never issued activations before, we put it out there and we basically called on it said, hey look, look at this number because it indicates the health of the business and we stand by that.”

Lastly, if anyone with stronger math skills and interests would pick apart that financial statement and share what I probably missed, that would be helpful.
Mykie

1 Like

I was glad to have CALL brought to my attention.
For one thing, I’m sick of my franchised telephone company for overpriced sub-par service, and am going to look into MagicJack
as an alternative.

The other issue is things like…

…no debt, cash in the bank, high margin, tremendous sales and margin growth, etc

Thanks to everyone for the information provided, as it makes a compelling case and it’s now on my watchlist.

I noticed the short interest on call appears to be above 35%. Is this a concern to others?

It’s a concern for me. But I’d bet there’s generally a lot of short
interest in the market now - and that it will increase in the near term.
That’s just my guess.
I’m watching CALL to possibly buy when an uptrend is established [rather
than initiate a position in a downtrend].

1 Like

I’m watching CALL to possibly buy when an uptrend is established [rather
than initiate a position in a downtrend].

Sorry for the confusion. [Oh, for an edit button…]
I was writing about CALL and thinking about the chart for BOFI.

It’s a concern for me. But I’d bet there’s generally a lot of short
interest in the market now - and that it will increase in the near term.
That’s just my guess.
I’m watching CALL to possibly buy when an uptrend is established [rather
than initiate a position in a downtrend].

Hi iBorg,

Yes, CALL is an interesting opportunity with more upside than down, in my opinion. I have a couple of questions about short interest:

Due to market conditions, I understand your statement about more shorts coming and I agree. And I believe CALL is in a rather dicey state right now, losing ground on their main source of revenue but moving to the mobile platform that could save the day. A teeter totter ride that we hope stops in the up position.

My question is as follows:
I sell a put on CALL as I think the short interest will depress the price temporarily and I’ll then be able to buy in cheaper. So I am sanguine about their prospects but does that now become part of the short interest ratio that investors worry about?

All numbers are relative and I believe I read somewhere that over 20% is a concern, but are there better guidelines that that since 20% call interest in Apple is probably much more concerning than 20% interest in a much smaller company. Any guidelines you wish to share?

Lastly, would anyone hazard a guess about how much of the short interest is about someone trying to buy the stock at a lower price versus someone who really believes the stock is going to tank due to fundamentals?

Thanks guys,
Mykie
PS with a PE of 6 and strong financials, I believe the downside is real but it is limited whereas the upside is what, 30 times earnings?

1 Like

iBorg,

Sorry for the confusion. [Oh, for an edit button…]
I was writing about CALL and thinking about the chart for BOFI.

My man (I think I have the gender right but if not, no offense) both of those were caught in the same downdraft on Friday.

PS where does one go to watch the short interest change on a specific stock?
Mykie

…both of those were caught in the same downdraft on Friday.

Mykie,

Maybe, but one suffered much more than the other:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CALL&p=D&yr=0&m…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BOFI&p=D&yr=0&m…