Calls for 100

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-ackman-urges-fed-to-act-…

snippet

Prior to the U.S. central bank’s move earlier this month to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, Ackman was a vocal proponent of a steeper hike, even urging the Fed to raise borrowing costs by by 100 basis points or more.

“And yes, 100 bps tomorrow, in July and thereafter would be better,” Ackman said in a tweet June 14 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. “The sooner the @federalreserve can get to a terminal FF rate and thereafter can begin to ease, the sooner the markets can recover.”

<“The sooner the @federalreserve can get to a terminal FF rate and thereafter can begin to ease, the sooner the markets can recover.” >

One serious problem with the Fed is that they constantly raise rates too high, induce a recession, then ease them too low.

The markets would be better off if the Fed does what Fed Chair Powell said – bring the fed funds rate to neutral, which would neither stimulate nor slow the economy. Then they could keep it at that level instead of raising and easing.

The mandate of the Fed is to maintain full employment and a stable dollar, NOT for the markets to recover. Especially not for the markets to recover to a bubble valuation that was caused by monetary and fiscal overstimulus.

Wendy

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I think you’re missing Bill Ackman’s intention. He doesn’t care about inflationary risks. He’ll be happy to see the rate hike 300 BPs.

Wendy,

We have had a 1Q contraction. We are in the middle of a 2Q contraction. We are in a recession.

In my area even with equities and bonds down we have money. We are spending like drunken sailors. But cross the river to a poor city and getting by in life is really tough. It just got tougher.

Meanwhile oil prices will be falling.

Meanwhile oil prices will be falling.

Wishful thinking.
Demand for oil due to China’s strict “zero-Covid” policy has shut down the largest economy on Earth. 45 cities, including four major industrial centers, are on complete lock down. Anyone arriving in China has to go through a 15 day quarantine.
Germany’s GDP is still growing and the low forcast is still GDP growing by 1.9% in 2022.
China will open up by the end of August and demand for Oil will keep the price above $110.

It’s hard to find any economic prediction that the odds of a recession is over 50 percent over the next two years, and most only see a modest slowdown. Deutsche Bank is the only exception.
Recession, maybe… already in a recession, no.

It takes two declared quarters of contraction for a recession to be declared in the US. We wait on the 2Q economic results.

You will need to read about the G7 acting as a cartel within the coming weeks to decide the price of Russian oil. While Biden is flying to the ME, he has announced he will only generically ask for an increase in supply. He is making a good move to work with OPEC as the G7 dramatically undercuts oil prices globally using Russian oil.

We have the tools and power to tell Russia what the price will be. The Indians and Chinese will only want the lower price we determine. Russia sooner or later will pump more just to get the cash.

It takes two declared quarters of contraction for a recession to be declared in the US. We wait on the 2Q economic results.

You said, “we are in a recession.” I was clarifying.

We have the tools and power to tell Russia what the price

Lotta talk, we’ll see. If we can control the price of oil, why didn’t we do it when oil was $120bbl? The price of oil is set by the market. Russia has already made over $100 billion in oil sales, more than they made all 2021. Russia can simply stop producing oil for six months. OPEC controls pricing that way all the time.
Don’t think the G7 has the power you think it does.

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