CAR-T / TCR Article

Not sure if this got posted, but it’s an interesting read…
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4088181-betting-car-t-race
Ant

3 Likes

Ant,
That is a nice article. My guess is that KITE has two pops coming this year and early next year. First, the FDA BLA approval, which will be no surprise to anyone after the Novartis win. The second would be a KITE acquisition by someone. The author seems to agree with these thoughts. The strange thing is that the author brings up Celgene and all of its partnerships (I am long Celgene too), but it doesn’t it doesn’t seem to occur to the author that Celgene might be the perfect suitor for KITE. I think that’s the case, and that might be the most likely acquisition or partnership for KITE.

Best,

bulwnkl

2 Likes

I was all excited about this new category of treatment until I saw the cost! Like OMG! is that $300k to $600k per dosage? Or even per treatment?!

I do not believe this is sustainable to any degree and the issues this will create are not even discussed yet.

Does a Trump get the treatment, but not a Tinkershaw? That is not going to go down well with the Tinkershaws of the world.

This said, that is a question for another day.

There are multiple time periods with biotechs. One such time period is pre-approval. The usual pattern is the the stock will of course jump big, if approval is made (or jump small if that was basically a given anyways, or even go down if it was a given but the indication or warning labels, etc. are too restrictive, or if some other drug beats it to market). That is one time period.

There is a third time period (I did not discuss the first) and that after approval the stock tends to reset on actual real world market conditions.

So with Kite, there is no sense asking this question now, as it won’t really affect the share price outcome for this stage 2 time period. But after the drug is approved, then we need to start asking ourselves this question in regard to whether or not to continue to hold it.

I refer you to DNDN as an example. And DNDN was around $90k per treatment (sure, sure, less effective, although the most effective, least side effect treatment available at the time for many).

Tinker

6 Likes

The question will always be “how much is your life worth?” These are kids for the most part in this early part of the CART therapy journey. I don’t know… it’s tough for sure especially when kids are involved. However, I know KITE has been working with insurance companies on coverage because they mentioned it in their last conference call. The price will drop as the process become more streamlined. Also, I don’t think DNDN is a good comparison. Prostate cancer has many other therapies out there (the best therapy is castration BTW but dudes will have none of it!) whereas CART is for dying kids with no other option. Good article though, I predict the next few years will be amazing for CART and I hope I picked one of the winners…

MC

Small KITE position around 1.5% of port

2 Likes