CBO released an update to the U.S. federal budget outlook (the projections assume no changes to current law). (We are in the middle of FY2023. The FY2024 budget is being negotiated.)
From 1973 to projected 2033, Mandatory outlays increase from 8% to 15% of GDP, Discretionary outlays decrease from 10% to 6%, and Net interest increase from 1% to 4%.
From 1973 to projected 2033, Individual income taxes increase from 8% to 10% of GDP, Payroll taxes increase from 4% to 6%, Corporate income taxes decrease from 3% to 1%, other taxes decrease from 2% to 1%.
From 1973 to projected 2033, total outlays increase from 18% to 25% of GDP, and total revenues are steady at 18%.
The percentage of people age 65 or older relative to the number of people ages 25 to 64 is projected to rise from 22 percent in 1973 to 42 percent in 2033.
| pct of GDP | Average | Actual | Estimated | Estimated | Estimated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1973–2022 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2033 | |
| Revenues | |||||
| Individual Income Taxes | 8.0 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.7 |
| Payroll Taxes | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.9 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Other Revenue | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Outlays | |||||
| Social Security | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 6.0 |
| Medicare | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| Medicaid | 1.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Other Mandatory | 3.2 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| Defense | 4.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Nondefense Discretionary | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Net Interest | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| Revenues Total | 17.4 | 19.6 | 18.4 | 17.8 | 18.1 |
| Outlays Total | 21.0 | 24.8 | 24.2 | 23.8 | 25.0 |
| Deficit Total | -3.6 | -5.2 | -5.8 | -6.0 | -6.9 |
— links —
May 2023 Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033
A post from last year: “The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has just released the new “Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032.”
Debt limit talks stall as Republicans ‘press pause,’ White House says real differences, May 19, 2023
“The S&P 500 went from a gain of 0.3% to a loss of 0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average went from a gain of 117 points to a loss of about 90 points. Markets had been rising this week on hopes of a deal.”
The United States federal budget for fiscal year 2023 runs from October 1, 2022, to September 30, 2023.
Federal and State Share of Medicaid Spending, FY2021
https://www.kff.org/medicaid/state-indicator/federalstate-share-of-spending/?dataView=1¤tTimeframe=0&sortModel={"colId":"Location","sort":"asc"}
Population ages 65 and above for the United States
The Demographic Outlook: 2023 to 2053
“The percentage of people age 65 or older relative to the number of people ages 25 to 64 is projected to rise from 34 percent in 2023 to 46 percent in 2053.”
A discussion of the CBO outlook is at:
Interest is Skyrocketing, and the National Debt Will Reach an All-time High in just 5 years
Despite Decades of Warnings, Social Security and Medicare Depletion Dates Have Been Getting Closer
Without Reform, Social Security Could Become Depleted Within the Next Decade
The BPC Proposal “reduces the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (debt-to-GDP ratio) in the 10th year by at least 5 percentage points”
Problem Solvers Caucus would “create a BRAC-like external Fiscal Commission to review and recommend a package to stabilize long-term deficits and debt”, and would require “an annual report on the fiscal state of the nation.”