Congressional Budget Office

Interesting paper on government debt - look at the increased cost of rolling over debt when interest rates rise:


This is unexplained but there are major GDP growth rate increases expected during the period.

  • Revenues. In CBO’s projections, revenues rise to 19.6 percent of GDP in 2022, one of the highest levels ever recorded, because of sizable increases in collections of individual income taxes. After falling in relation to the size of the economy for the next few years, revenues increase in 2026, largely because of scheduled changes in tax rules. They continue to rise after 2030 as an increasing share of income is pushed into higher tax brackets. In 2052, revenues reach 19.1 percent of GDP.

That’s a huge pile under the heading “Federal debt held by public”