https://mishtalk.com/economics/china-central-bank-cuts-inter…
China’ Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates As Consumer Spending Dives
China’s growth is weighed down by a property bubble implosion and its zero-Covid policy
Few believe China GDP statistics.
China posts a GDP target and generally hits it despite questionable economic reports, electrical use, etc., and with a property sector implosion.
Well if China’s economic data is fraudulent we really cannot forecast the impact upon our economy.
Well if China’s economic data is fraudulent
IMHO any official release from the government of China (or any of its provinces, cities, and other subdivisions) has the same amount of reliable information as a blank piece of paper.
If you can discern the exact source and the intended audience you can get SOME information - but not about the reality behind the subject of the document. For any such document there are three possible audiences: what the issuer wants the Chinese people to believe, what the issuer wants the rest of the Chinese government (higher and/or lower levels) to believe, and what the issuer wants the world outside China to believe. The document will reliably convey ONE of those three things, and may accidentally resemble the others - and, occasionally, reality - to some degree.
(Note: I’m not exactly convinced of the honesty of any non-Chinese governments I’m aware of, either.)
Well if China’s economic data is fraudulent
Economic stats are a very mixed way of sussing out the nuts and bolts of business.
We can look directly at products we import and figure out our relationships cost wise to the Chinese producers and consumers.
Apple iPhones? Lower priced chips?
Consumption slump in China? Yes, but were American goods being bought? Look at Costco’s footprint in China.
General products being imported from China, the saltshaker to the car bumper, will the exchange rate with the USD change? That is the earth shattering question.
China needs off the USD/RMB peg. It can not go on any longer. I have no clue how Xi would print as he is and have the PBOC buy USD to keep the peg.
It is a massive mess for them. A huge over due opportunity for us. JMO
Will our markets go lower? I wont guess. We need more information on us.