China GDP Contracts Again, Rates Lowered

CNN Business: China cuts rates as lockdowns and a real estate crisis take their toll

By Laura He, CNN Business

Updated 4:07 AM ET, Mon August 15, 2022

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/economy/china-pboc-cuts-rates…

Hong Kong (CNN Business)China’s central bank cut interest rates on Monday as new data showed the economy losing steam last month because of renewed Covid lockdowns and a deepening property downturn.

The People’s Bank of China reduced the main rate at which it provides short-term liquidity to banks, from 2.1% to 2%. The central bank also cut the rate of its one-year lending facility from 2.85% to 2.75% in order to “maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system,” it said in a statement.

It was the first time since January that those rates had been cut.

More:

Economic data published Monday for July was much worse than expected.

Retail sales grew 2.7% in July from a year ago, slowing from June’s 3.1% growth, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. That number widely missed the 5% increase forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. Industrial production was up 3.8% in July from a year earlier, down from the 3.9% growth in June. It also missed the market expectation of a 4.6% rise.

Mish’s view has a very good pair of tweet threads by others on this surprise announcement from China:

Mish headline: China Does Surprise Rate Cut to Help Its Economy, But It Won’t Work

Mish sub-headline: In a surprise move, China is bucking the global trend towards rate hikes hoping to stimulate demand.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/china-does-surprise-rate-cut-…

:pushpin: Beijing has been pumping the supply side of the economy with credit, subsidies, tax rebates, and spending on improved logistics, but that still hasn’t been enough to overcome zero-COVID policies and weak domestic demand.

:pushpin: The real problem of course continues to be domestic demand. Retail sales in July were up 2.7% year on year and up 0.27% month on month. Year to date they were down 0.2%, much worse than the already-disappointing 0.3% increase recorded last month.

:pushpin: Beijing has been pumping the supply side of the economy with credit, subsidies, tax rebates, and spending on improved logistics, but that still hasn’t been enough to overcome zero-COVID policies and weak domestic demand.