Economic growth will slow as a result of a smaller workforce. Challenges to fiscal health necessitate a postponement of the retirement age; delaying it to 65 by 2035 could reduce the budget shortfall by about 20%.
We forecast that by 2035, China will have more than 450m people who are aged above 60; or 32.7% of the total population.
For comparison purposes; currently the US has 18% of the population 65 and up. By 2035 22% of the US population will be seniors.
An aging demographic means more government money spent on pension and health care. And senior consumption spending tends to decline. Also the working force decline also. Of course immigration can mitigate those facts. But with an aging world population; the number of immigrants diminish also.
The top legislative body on Friday approved proposals to raise the statutory retirement age from 50 to 55 for women in blue-collar jobs, and from 55 to 58 for females in white-collar jobs.
Don’t they still have large rural population. Shifting population from rural to factory jobs in urban areas (at higher pay and higher standard of living) should help fill the gap.
That is true in the U.S. too. The young often move for better career opportunities. Some love the freedom that comes with farming and ranching. It’s a unique life style. But paying the bills means inheriting or coming up with lots of capital.
It’s common to move where the jobs are. Smaller family size and mechanized farming means falling rural population. In 1900 in Missouri day of the horse population density was 30/sq mi. In 2010 down to 8. And probably headed for two. Not enough population to do manufacturing in rural counties. Hard to support a hospital. Schools keep getting smaller but consolidation means long trip on a bus.
We are seeing the impact of falling rural population.
Absolutely. That’s why I’m in Phoenix instead of California (or anyplace else). The job was here.
I would move somewhere more rural now that I’m retired, but the practical reality is that as we age we need ready access to good medical. Hospitals closing in rural areas is not conducive to that. So, if/when we move, it will likely be to another city (like Denver).
Though, I will note that I read an article a while back that young people who can work remotely are moving to more rural areas because the cost of living is less, crime is generally less, and it’s less stressful. I think rural areas are also a “natural” for stuff like power generation and data centers, which will entail some jobs. Maybe enough to keep the hospital open, and get some good doctors there.
Those remote working young people moving there were affecting housing costs in those areas, which some of the locals regarded as a negative.
Urban areas have more job opportunities. And that can work for two career families. And availability of numerous services like libraries, museums, entertainment, etc are plusses.
People also worry about crime, noise, pollution, etc as well as higher cost, taxes, congestion.
For many the ideal compromise is a midsized city. Often have many of the urban advantages with fewer of the concerns. And within a few hours of a big city, can still enjoy those assets occasionally.
The most important thing is emergency/trauma care - stroke, heart attack, a serious fall. Taking 40 minutes to go for a cancer treatment is inconvenient but not critical (and not that different from some urban areas). And if it’s something exotic you’ll end up getting referred to someplace like the Mayo Clinic.