China unable to go global

Not mentioned in my portfolio summary this month, from my p pawn notes:

One more reason why I sold the 5.5% position in Zscaler, to buy more Tesla.

China automakers won’t go global because they lack a global scale and they lack the software to go global there is no ‘open source’ android type product to build on top of to localize, for autos.

Maybe China will have success selling to Russia and Iran.


That is a great video. Yes, there are macro challenges for the Auto Industry that everyone is aware of. But I think what some folks are missing and what was highlighted in the video is the Auto Industries “total capitulation” to Tesla. BYD is the only one that has scaled but its margins are low, and it is unlikely to be able to expand much outside of China.

The reality is that many of the legacy Autos will likely go bankrupt by 2030. This was recently accelerated by the UAW agreement, and it could accelerate further if we hit a recession in the next few years.


Not totally sure about that. Everywhere I go across Asia and even down to Australia and across to Europe I am seeing BYD. Not sure what O/S or software it uses but it doesn’t seem to be a barrier. Just saying.


Nick Colas in the video said there were two survivors, Tesla and Toyota. At one time Sandy Munro picked VW and Toyota but now he favors BYD. Former Toyota CEO, Akio Toyoda, was an EV skeptic but Toyota can get back to their tried and trusted business philosophy and become a leading player in the EV market.

So it’s Tesla, BYD/Toyota.

The Captain

This is where Nick Colas says it: 23:57


I know the details, i listened to the the entire video. Nick thinks Toyota will survive long-term because they are the low-cost leader and because of their global footprint. However, to date, Toyota hasn’t done much at all on the EV side so it’s just a wild guess at this point.