I am not expecting anything will change with this administration. They wear stupidity on sleeve proudly. But, allow them to decimate Solar companies, and pick up with a view on post 2028 timeframe..
In the meantime in US
We will not approve solar or wind
Chinese solar is now expanding so fast that by the early 2030s, the country will generate more power from the sun than the amount of electricity the US will consume altogether, according to the [International Energy Agency]
Just a note, that the thread title should read ‘more than all electricity produced in US’. Electricity makes up about a third of US energy consumption.
DB2
Done! Thx for the suggestion.
My view is Solar will thrive despite Trump’s policies.
Elon is jumping into Solar.
At the same time, look at TAN (a solar ETF). During the previous administration (1/21 to 1/25) the ETF lost more than two-thirds of its value.
DB2
Congress allowed some carveout to existing projects and basically worked out a timeline that would have covered Trump administration at least for existing projects and projects that are about to start.
But, the administration is canceling approvals, canceling leases on federal land, basically have a shadow ban by not approving any projects. I don’t think Elon can do anything to change this. For whatever reason, Trump has a very strong antipathy towards wind and solar.
Elon can pay for all the solar his businesses want to build. Furthermore, he is against subsidies so he should not complain. He also wants fossil fuel subsidies to stop. That’s what this thread should be all about. Stop wasting money making oil companies richer. Those unnecessary subsidies are inflating the national debt.
The Captain
You are talking like democrat. I am not trying to tell what administration should do, or what I wish Elon can do. I am reading what is happening. US will not stop subsidies to Fossil fuel, because democrats are not interested/ united on that. Currently, few republicans along with democrats forced some wiggle room, in BBB, but administration ignored and basically going after Solar and Wind projects.
That’s reality. We can shout at the administration all we want, nothing changes that reality, at least until mid-term.
Elon has been tweeting about getting into Solar and the Kardashev scale.
I am accumulating ENPH for the next few years. It was punished by the market due to Trump’s policies. The energy demand for AI will be insatiable.
Looking at the graph Captain posted, ENPH was punished severely long before the present administration took office (down 70% between November 2022 and November 2023).
DB2
This is true. I prefer companies like AES, which build utility scale solar projects , operate them as utility. Solar technology companies are subject to technological risk. Utilities, produce electricity, distribute electricity and make steady returns.
YMMV.
Thank you for the lead. Looks interesting.
JimA
Enphase product are very good. Their execution is good. I am accumualing leaps but will backup the truck with price < $30. I expect the share price to be under pressure for a few years.
China has also been working on the coal mines.
During the first half of 2025, China commissioned as much as 21 gigawatts (GW) of coal power, the highest amount in the first half of the year since 2016, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) said on Monday in their H1 2025 biannual review of China’s coal projects. Projections are that coal capacity commissioned for the full year would exceed 80 GW…
Despite previous signs of slowdown in coal power last year [2024]…the surge in coal plant commissioning follows the jump in coal project permitting in 2022 and 2023, when China was permitting, on average, two new coal power plants every week.
DB2
I’ll take their word for it. 21 GW of coal power. Amazing.
During the same period, they are commissioning 153 GW of renewable energy, primarily wind and solar.
I must consult my calculator and see whether 153 or 21 is the larger number.
I was curious about this myself. Is it or is it not larger? Turns out that 153 is 7.285714285714286 times as large as 21!
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Pete
I have been posting about electricity prices increasing for some time now. the below chart shows how they are growing faster than inflation. But, the real shock is going to come in the next 2 years as utility rate base changes, and more and more IPP sell directly to data centers, causing severe electricity shortage across midwest.
Sadly, many of these utility boards are populated by partisan folks, who are making 180 degree turn of, let us build solar to “solar is ugly”. It is not the big tech, but consumers are going to be hit hard, because big tech is getting into 10, 15, 20 year contracts.
Context and details matter. China is building new flexible coal plants designed for roles as peaker plants and backup energy. These are built to be commercially viable even when running at only 20% capacity.
China will allow the construction of new coal power plants through at least 2027 but with restrictions aimed at limiting emissions and boosting renewables, according to a newly released action plan. China Allows New Coal Plants, but With More Limited Role - Yale E360
So while China is adding more coal plant capacity, it is using those plants for fewer hours and less efficiently.
